Viktor Hovland can prove the pick of the Scandinavians in the Open Championship, while the top senior betting may be underestimating one past champion.
Golf betting tips: Open Championship specials
2pts Viktor Hovland to be the top Scandinavian at 3/1 (bet365, betway)
1pt Hovland top Scandinavian & Jon Rahm top Spaniard at 7/1 (bet365)
2pts Stewart Cink to be the top senior at 21/10 (Unibet - 2/1 betway)
Sky Bet's @SportingLife specials
33/1 Knapp to miss the cut, MacIntyre top 10, Noren top 20
50/1 Perez top French, Rahm top Spaniard, Cink top senior, Hovland top Nordic
Top Scandinavian
The closer we get to the Open Championship, the more inclined I am to take a positive view of VIKTOR HOVLAND's chances – and this market looks the best way to side with him.
Hovland has a world-class record when it comes to contending for majors, for all that he lacks the consistency of some other members of the elite. Having turned pro in 2019, he's had genuine chances to win a major from 2022 onwards and that ability to adapt to various conditions, to arrive at the first tee ready to go, makes him among the most likely first-time major champions for the years ahead.
He's also in form, winning the Travelers and then closing with a round of 64 in Scotland, and while I'd still hold some concerns around his short-game, there's no denying the numbers look better. He's certainly back in a good place both mentally and technically and that's why he made his way onto my shortlist.
Really the decisive factor against him in the end was that links golf probably isn't a natural fit but that's true of Ludvig Aberg, who has been poor since the US Open, plus the Hojgaard twins, one of whom is just back from injury. Nicolai meanwhile was disappointing at a course he loves in the Scottish Open, where driver counts for plenty. Here, it may seldom see the light of day and that works against Kristoffer Reitan, too.
That leaves antepost selections Alex Noren and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen as potentially bigger issues but neither arrives in the form I'd hoped and at 3/1, Hovland looks a bet. Beating Aberg and maybe Noren might just do it and the fact that Aberg's driver snapped in transit ahead of the Scottish Open is another small factor in favour of the form pick.
Top Spaniard
Not every bookmaker will take multiples across top nationalities markets but bet365, betway and the Flutter firms do where there's no crossover. The former go 7/1 and change about Hovland and JON RAHM, as they make him odds-against to be the pick of the Spaniards.
I've laid out the case for Rahm in the outright preview, which essentially revolves around his pedigree and the fact I feel he's being underestimated as fifth or even sixth favourite. Here in the top Spaniard betting, the parallel case is as much about who exactly is going to beat him if he plays to a reasonable standard.
The trio of Angel Ayora, David Puig and Jose Ballester all have promising futures, but for now their games are based on overpowering courses. Alejandro de Castro Piera is an amateur who will do well to make the weekend and is priced accordingly. That leaves Eugenio Chacarra as the key threat and his KLM Open win bodes well, but he missed the cut on his other two major debuts and will do well to avoid a similar fate here.
Rahm is a long way ahead of this lot for now and 11/10 looks to be the wrong side of even-money.
Top senior
Padraig Harrington remains a genius with a wedge in hand and the 2008 champion could roll back the years now returning to Birkdale, but that prospect does seem to be overestimated by a market which makes him favourite to be the top senior among the five who are in this field.
David Duval ought not to be a factor, Darren Clarke missed the cut here in 1998 and 2017 and may struggle to better that, and Henrik Stenson's first forays into the senior ranks have been underwhelming. But STEWART CINK shouldn't be underestimated and belongs at the head of the betting.
Cink was less than half the price of Harrington for the US Senior Open when last they played the same event and while Harrington won, Cink was second. Perhaps that should see the gap narrowed, but to flip them completely requires the belief that Cink is a significantly inferior golfer under Open conditions, which really isn't the case.
He leads their head-to-head 14-7 since January 2025 and 5-3 this year but more relevant is the fact it's 8-5 in the Open since Cink became a champion one year after Harrington went back-to-back. Over their respective careers, Cink might not have won the Open twice as Harrington has, but he does lead the lifetime head-to-head in the tournament 12-11, which I think would surprise a few.
As Cink is more than 200 places higher up the DataGolf rankings, I can find no valid argument in favour of Harrington except that he won a tournament here 18 years ago. Cink at 2/1 and bigger is the bet, dictated entirely by it being the wrong price. Unfortunately, bookmakers offering the market won't allow the double with Rahm despite there being no seniors from Spain.
Top former winner
Scottie Scheffler (2/1) and Rory McIlroy (5/2) take up a big chunk of this market and rightly so, but Scheffler's first missed cut in four years and McIlroy's increasing tendency to throw in one bad round makes them appear anything but invulnerable.
We've seen Scheffler lose patience when the bounce is key and I'd probably give the edge to McIlroy, who is focused only on winning majors these days. But is he sharp enough? The mistakes he made when contending for the US Open hint that he just hasn't played quite enough golf this year and he made more of them last Saturday at The Renaissance.
Now, four rounds in Scotland following a trip to Cornwall to play with Shane Lowry and Luke Donald may have solved everything and in the end it's enough to put me off siding with Collin Morikawa, who I felt looked a strong each-way candidate at 7/1. Xander Schauffele also having played poorly last week, plus the lack of depth in behind, could mean the bar for landing the place money is actually set quite low.
Morikawa has won by the coast at Pebble Beach this year and, five years on from his Open triumph, has prepared better than ever for this tournament. He flew home in the Travelers, seems happier and healthier in general, and this could be the market he wins if the big two don't show up.
Then again, rushing to oppose the two best players in the world doesn't seem necessary with so many opportunities at hand this week.
Posted at 15:45 BST on 14/07/26
More Open content
- Open Championship preview
- Ben Coley's specials tips
- Round one three-ball picks
- First-round leader preview
- Matt Cooper's Open diary
- Who creates chances in majors?
- Player-by-player guide to the field
- Royal Birkdale talking points
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