Links form underpins our selections for Thursday's first-round three-balls in the Open Championship.
The Open betting tips: Round one three-balls
1pt double Southgate and Perez to win their three-balls at 100/30 (BOYLE Sports)
1pt double Nakajima and Bairstow to win their ball-balls at 5/1 (General)
0.5pt Southgate, Perez, Nakajima, Bairstow to win their three-balls at 25/1 (General)
Matthew Baldwin will hit the opening shot of the 154th Open Championship at 0630 BST on Thursday morning, an honour which always looked likely to go to the Royal Birkdale member once he came through Final Qualifying.
Baldwin will appeal to romantic punters in all kinds of markets and at his best he's a good links golfer, but the form of both James Nicholas and in particular Thomas Detry is much stronger. Detry is a proper player, a former Scottish Open runner-up, and Baldwin can be left alone at the odds.
Matthew Jordan is another links-proven Englishman who may not be thankful for this early start but could make the most of it. He's been 10th twice in the Open, including at his own home course, Royal Liverpool, which is an hour down the coast. As with Baldwin though, in against him are two players proven at a higher level and one of them, Ryan Fox, is a past Dunhill Links champion.
It's another Matthew who therefore kicks off the day's selections as we stick to the preferred policy of finding weakness that can potentially be exploited.
Southgate to beat Couvra and Duval (0730 BST)
MATTHEW SOUTHGATE wrote one of the stories of the 2017 Open when finishing sixth and this proven links performer is worth supporting in a winnable three-ball.
Under different circumstances, Martin Couvra's stronger overall form would make him seem the value but this is set to be a proper Open Championship, where links smarts go a long way. Couvra, who has missed his last couple of cuts, doesn't have those whereas Southgate's best form has come by the sea.
That includes sixth here, 12th the previous year at Troon, 23rd back there in 2023, second place in the Dunhill Links, second place in the Irish Open at Portstewart, and various fine achievements as an amateur. He's simply at his most comfortable with what lies ahead and while his recent form is patchy, it does include a first win on the HotelPlanner Tour plus another successful spin at Final Qualifying.
He also has veteran caddie Billy Foster on the bag which can only be a positive and with David Duval having opened with rounds of 82, 79, 80, 91 and 82 on his last five Open starts, we can surely reduce this to a head-to-head. Take the player who is most likely to improve for conditions we seldom see.
Perez to beat Ayora and Pulcini (0825)
Again we're siding with links form here although VICTOR PEREZ has also moved in front of Angel Ayora in the DataGolf rankings, so there's a more straightforward case too.
Perez has bagged three top-10 finishes in a row on the DP World Tour, culminating in ninth place last week to earn one of the final spots in the field. Coupled with a solid first season on the LIV Golf circuit, he arrives as the sort of player it's easy to envisage popping up on the leaderboard.
He's a former winner of the Dunhill Links, the KLM Open and the Abu Dhabi Championship, each played on links courses or modern interpretations of one, and is a rock-solid ball-striker who comes here high on confidence.
By contrast, Ayora is a young powerhouse who while clearly capable on links turf, is severely lacking in experience. His performance in the KLM Open, where the wind blew, is notable but this is a different kettle of fish. It also follows successive missed cuts, including in Scotland last week.
Mateo Pulcini averages 77.5 across his two major starts this year, lacks any kind of form when playing the game this way, and seems likely to run up another couple of high scores. Perez at evens or bigger rates the strongest fancy of the day.
Nakajima to beat Coody and Keefer (1342)
This is the most competitive three-ball I've chosen, at least on paper, but key to it is that we've two powerhouse Americans in with a more rounded Japanese player who also has much more experience playing golf in Europe.
Two full seasons on the DP World Tour mean KEITA NAKAJIMA is right at home and he showed the value of that when flying into third place in the Scottish Open. The signs had been there, though, as his approach work has been good for several months. All it took was for his short-game to join the party and there could now be more to come.
Johnny Keefer also finished third in Scotland thanks to an awesome ball-striking display, but this is set to be a very different test and I'd say the change in dynamics work against him and in favour of Nakajima. Keefer is a long, brilliant driver who has enjoyed opening his shoulders lately, including with a solid performance in the US Open, but driver will seldom leave the bag here.
His short-game is a big concern so without driver to lean on I think he'll struggle, which is also the angle I'm taking with regards Pierceson Coody. Driver is his best club and he missed the cut last week, his best form having come early on in the season at courses very different to this one.
Nakajima has a poor record in majors so far but for the first time he looks primed to make the cut. That sets the standard quite high for two big talents who may just be a little too green for these brown fairways.
Bairstow to beat Truslow and John (1559)
There's not much between SAM BAIRSTOW and Austen Truslow on paper, but conditions give the edge to Bairstow, who came through Final Qualifying having missed out in a play-off 12 months earlier.
Runner-up in the Amateur Championship along the coast at Lytham, Bairstow knows plenty about this form of the game and he played nicely in the ISCO Championship last week to build more confidence. It's been a tough run since a bit of controversy in Scotland last autumn but qualifying for the Open for the first time in four years should give him the chance to move forwards at last.
He can outscore Truslow, who has rebuilt his career in Asia but withdrew from his last start, and John, an Aussie whose red-hot spring has given way to a miserable start to summer. John has missed his last three cuts, shooting a big number in the first round each time. Truslow meanwhile will find this a very different test and backers will wince when they see him chipping one-handed.
Posted at 20:00 BST on 14/07/26
More Open content
- Open Championship preview
- Ben Coley's specials tips
- Round one three-ball picks
- First-round leader preview
- Matt Cooper's Open diary
- Who creates chances in majors?
- Player-by-player guide to the field
- Royal Birkdale talking points
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