Football betting tips: Sunday best bets
1pt Murillo 2+ total shots in Forest vs Southampton (14:00) at 16/5 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
0.5pt Murillo to score anytime at 16/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Murillo to score from outside the box at 70/1 (William Hill)
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton
- Kick-off: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 15/4 | Away 13/2
Nottingham Forest centre-back MURILLO turned plenty of heads with his performance in their draw against Liverpool in midweek, at both ends of the pitch.
He became the first player since 2016 to complete at least three tackles, win at least five duels and complete at least 15 clearances in a top-flight match, with his 17 clearances of the latter the most by any player in a Premier League game this season, beating his own high of 15 against Brighton in September.
The Brazilian again caught the eye by twice going for goal too, and having backed him TO SCORE ANYTIME and TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX at huge prices - going painfully close when he strode out of defence and shot inches wide from 30 yards - I'm keeping faith for the visit of the worst team in the division, who also happen to boast both the worst defensive record and worst ability to defend set-pieces.
- CLICK HERE to back Murillo to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Murillo to score from outside the box with Sky Bet
Naturally the prices are shorter for the visit of Southampton, but at 16/1 and 70/1 they are still very much worth sticking with.
Murillo had 17 attempts on goal in 2023/24: six from outside the box, with two even coming from inside his own half.
He's already equalled that number this season, with all but one attempt - his incredible halfway line effort on Tuesday - coming from within the width of the penalty area as Nuno Espirito Santo and the Forest coaching team have clearly tried to channel his energy in a more focused, less scattergun manner.
There has been a mixture of open play and set-piece attempts, with 10 of his shots from outside the box.
The price about the Brazilian having one shot isn't quite there as it was in midweek, but the 16/5 for 2+ TOTAL SHOTS is advised given Southampton's set-piece deficiencies.
Murillo has already scored a header from a corner this season, and only Crystal Palace and Arsenal have scored more goals from dead-balls than Forest (7) this season.
Already advised
Saturday
2pts Swindon to beat Barrow at 29/20 (888Sport)
1pt Under 1.5 goals in West Ham vs Palace at 16/5 (Betfair, Unibet)
0.5pt No goalscorer in West Ham vs Palace at 11/1 (Betfred)
2pts Reading to beat Stockport at 9/4 (Betfred)
2pts Barnsley to beat Bristol Rovers at 17/20 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral)
*All games kick off 15:00
Swindon vs Barrow
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 21/10 | Away 21/10
SWINDON have really turned around under Ian Holloway, with three straight home wins followed by a highly credible draw against promotion-chasing Crewe, albeit in farcical, foggy, delayed circumstances.
For a team who had previously barely won in 18 months to take 10 points in four home games is some achievement, and has put distance between themselves and the League Two relegation zone.
Barrow - who I recently advised at 50/1 to be relegated - have won just twice in 17 league games, a run that stretches back to September's 5-0 defeat at Chelsea in the Carabao Cup.
Before that they took 16 points from seven games. Since it they've taken 12 from 17.
It's a concerning collapse in form that stretches back to April. Of the 19 ever-present fourth-tier teams only Newport (0.93) and Morecambe (0.72) are averaging fewer points per game than Barrow, who've managed just 30 from their last 30 league matches.
Away from home it's even worse.
This is the Bluebirds' first trip of the new year after taking just 14 points from 23 away matches (W2 D8 L13) in 2024. This season they've lost seven of 12.
West Ham vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 8/5
Crystal Palace's turnaround in form after a slow start to the season appears to have gone a little unnoticed.
Oliver Glasner's side lost to Arsenal in the league and Carabao Cup in back-to-back games just before Christmas but have lost only one of 14 other matches since October 21.
Progress up the table has been restricted by the fact they've drawn the most games (nine of 21) in the Premier League this season and a general lack of goals: 13 of their 26 fixtures in all competitions have gone under 2.5, with seven of those seeing UNDER 1.5 GOALS.
Having twice drawn 0-0 already in the top flight this term, taking the 11/1 about NO GOALSCORER feels worthwhile for a London derby that is likely to be tight against a team whose priority under new manager Graham Potter will be to tighten up defensively before the much-fabled West Ham Way can be droned on about endlessly.
Keeping out one of the division's lowest scorers - only Ipswich, Everton and Southampton have managed fewer than Palace's 23 goals - would be a good place to start.
The Hammers are facing issues of their own in front of goal with several frontline strikers missing, forcing Lucas Paqueta to be used as a makeshift centre-forward.
Three midweek goals against Fulham are misleading as they came from just 0.95 expected goals (xG) and two were a result of opposition errors playing out from the back.
Defensively there were clear signs of improvement, with both Fulham goals coming in bizarre fashion as crosses by Alex Iwobi somehow floated their way in to the net.
Reading vs Stockport
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 2/1 | Draw 9/4 | Away 23/20
Sixth plays seventh in Sky Bet League One as READING host Stockport - but their seasons are going in very different directions.
Stockport have really dropped off since Louie Barry was recalled by Aston Villa, which shouldn’t be a huge surprise seeing as he is the division’s top scorer with 15 goals.
Been a ride💙 pic.twitter.com/blJlJbspDj
— Louie Barry (@LouieBarry6) January 2, 2025
But Dave Challinor's men had already begun to wobble before he left; the Hatters are D2 L3 over their last five and W2 D2 L6 across their last 10.
After a small adjustment under Noel Hunt (DLL) Reading have made light of Ruben Selles’ move to Hull, winning three times and drawing once across their next four to get their play-off push back on track.
The Royals’ home record remains imperious too (W9 L2) with only Wrexham taking more points on their own ground in the third tier this season.
Bristol Rovers vs Barnsley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 14/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 3/4
If this was a home fixture, and a conventional home-away team, most punters would be rushing to back promotion-chasing BARNSLEY.
Over two and a half seasons the Tykes have rarely been out of the top six, finishing fourth and sixth over the past two campaigns, and currently sitting fifth. They have built that consistency on, oddly, being better away from home than at Oakwell - this term it's eight wins from 12 on the road.
They're also playing well and in great form, winning four straight games having not previously won more than two in a row under Darrell Clarke, who in his first season at the club seems to have now got to grips with his squad.
Last weekend’s postponed trip to Northampton gave Barnsley some nice extra recovery after the busy Christmas period to prepare for a trip to a Bristol Rovers team who are simply a poor League One side: 20th in the table, 17th in the home table, 22nd in the xG table.
It’s three defeats and a win since Inigo Calderon arrived as manager, and that win was at second-bottom Cambridge who have lost five in a row.
Odds correct at 1120 BST (17/01/25)
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