Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Aston Villa or draw (double chance) at 3/4 (Boylesports)
0.5pt Youri Tielemans 1+ assist at 8/1 (Betway)
*all bets in 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 26/1
- Aston Villa +1 handicap
- Youri Tielemans 1+ assist
- Matty Cash to be carded
According to Opta's predictions, PSG have a 90.9% chance of advancing through this tie. Luis Enrique's side have been by far the best team in the competition this calendar year, and they take a 3-1 lead to Villa Park ahead of the second leg.
Aston Villa have it all to do, and this is probably not Unai Emery's preferred scenario, with his side having to take the game to their visitors and win handily if they are to advance.
13 teams in Champions League history have lost the away leg by two or more goals and gone on to advance, the most dramatic of which involved PSG - then coached by Unai Emery - as they took a 4-0 lead to Barcelona - who were then managed by Luis Enrique - only to lose 6-1 on the night and bow out.
Emery therefore knows that anything is possible on a Champions League night, and Villa will believe, but they are up against it, with PSG in sensational form and having been gifted the weekend off by the French Football Federation to ensure they are in peak condition for this second leg.
What are the best bets?
While there was no doubt Les Parisiens deserved to win the first leg, winning the xG battle (1.95 - 0.74) and taking the most shots (29-7) and shots on target (10-2), there were still positives for Villa.
The main one being that they created the most Opta-defined 'big chances', creating two opportunities with an xG of above 0.30 xG to PSG's one. That means that on the whole Villa limited PSG to just low-probability shots, with the first two goals coming via sensational strikes from tough angles and long distance.
On the night, the French side averaged just 0.07 xG per shot, and if Emery was offered a similar figure in this second leg I'm sure he'd snap your hand off. The only big chance PSG created was their third goal in added time.
That gives me confidence that VILLA can make a fist of this, and I think they can avoid defeat at least in this second leg, so I'll back them DOUBLE CHANCE.
We just need the hosts to avoid defeat on the night here to get a winner, and given that Villa have lost just once at home all season across Premier League and Champions League matches, it's fair to say that Villa Park is a fortress.
That has been the case ever since Emery took charge at Villa. Over his entire reign, in PL and UCL matches Villa have lost just eight times in 60 home matches - that's a loss percentage of just 13%. Three of those defeats came in his first six home games too.
In European competitions Villa have lost just one of 13 home matches under Emery, that coming at the end of last season in the semi-finals of the Conference League. It's a hard place for opponents to visit.
Granted PSG aren't just any opponents, but I do feel as though Villa are playing their best football of the season now, and have the tools to cause their visitors problems while also giving themselves a chance of progressing.
I wouldn't be at all shocked to see Villa win the game in 90 minutes but be eliminated, and this bet covers that possibility as well as one in which Villa get sucker-punched late chasing a second. Of course, PSG could dominate and win handily, but that would be a surprise given how good Villa are at home and the fact that PSG don't need to win this second leg. They could lose and go through.
I'll also have a small bet on YOURI TIELEMANS 1+ ASSIST at 8/1, with the Belgian in fine form at the moment.
He's registered an assist in all of his last three starts, including the first leg, and really is Villa's creator-in-chief. Across the season he has nine assists to his name, and he is dangerous from line-breaking runs as well as dropping deep and clipping through clever passes.
PSG will likely again play with a high-line, and I can see Tielemans exploiting that once again with ready runners in behind.
Team news
Aston Villa boast a near fully-fit squad ahead of this second leg, with the only doubt being Leon Bailey.
Emery did make plenty of changes at the weekend so Villa should be relatively fresh. The big decision to be made is whether or not to bring in Ollie Watkins to lead the line instead of Marcus Rashford.
PSG also have a full compliment to choose from with Marquinhos back from suspension. Lucas Beraldo will make way for the club captain in the only change for the visitors.
Predicted line ups
Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Kamara, Tielemans; Rogers, McGinn, Rashford; Watkins
PSG: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia
Match facts
- Aston Villa have lost three of their four games against French sides in European competition under Unai Emery, with all three of those defeats coming in succession (1-2 v Lille, 0-1 v Monaco, and 1-3 v Paris SG). Their one victory did come in the only one of these four played at Villa Park, however, beating Lille 2-1 in April 2024 (UEFA Conference League).
- Of the seven previous occasions when Paris SG have won the first leg of a UEFA Champions League knockout stage tie by 2+ goals, the French side have been eliminated on three occasions. Should they fail to progress here, they’ll have been eliminated from more European Cup/UEFA Champions League knockout stage ties having had a 2+ goal lead from the first leg than any other team (4).
- Aston Villa’s defeat against Paris SG in the reverse fixture was the third time they’ve lost by 2+ goals in the first leg of a knockout stage tie in major European competition, while they failed to progress in each of the previous two instances (on aggregate: 1-5 v Royal Antwerp in 1975-76 in the UEFA Cup and 2-6 v Olympiakos last season in the UEFA Conference League).
- Paris SG have only won four of their 17 away games against English teams in European competition (D4 L9). One of those victories did come in the most recent one (1-0 v Liverpool in March), however, ending a run of four straight defeats in such fixtures.
- Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has only lost one of his 13 home matches in major European competition as a manager, while winning 11 of them (D1). His only defeat in this run came in May 2024 against Olympiakos (2-4 in the UEFA Conference League semi-final, first leg).
- Paris SG have averaged 11.2 high turnovers per game in the UEFA Champions League this season; their most in a single edition on record (since 2012-13). They’ve also recorded 36 shot-ending high turnovers in 2024-25, which is more than they had in the previous three editions combined (28).
- Paris SG have four different players who’ve been directly involved in 5+ goals in the UEFA Champions League this season, in Ousmane Dembélé (9), Achraf Hakimi (6), Bradley Barcola (6) and Désiré Doué (5). They’ve never previously had more players do so in a single edition, while they have three players currently on four goal involvements (Gonçalo Ramos, Fabián Ruiz, and Nuno Mendes).
- Morgan Rogers has been directly involved in six goals for Aston Villa in the UEFA Champions League this season (four goals, two assists). Only two English players aged under-23 have ever had more goal involvements in a single edition of the competition: Jude Bellingham (9) and Bukayo Saka (8), both in 2023-24.
- Paris SG midfielder João Neves has applied more high-intensity pressures than any other midfielder in the UEFA Champions League this season (651), while his 42 tackles are the most by a midfielder in a single edition of the competition since Real Madrid’s Casemiro in 2017-18 (45).
- Youri Tielemans leads all Aston Villa players in the UEFA Champions League this season for passes completed (534) and line-breaking passes (104), as well as possession recoveries (45) and tackles (19).
Odds correct at 1115 BST (14/04/25)
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