Football betting tips: Champions League
2.5pts Raphinha to score or assist at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
*all bets in 90 minutes
Barcelona take a four-goal cushion to Dortmund on Tuesday. Tie over? Not officially.
Sky Bet’s quotes of 66/1 about Dortmund to qualify demonstrate the magnitude of their task but the hosts won’t roll over in front of the Yellow Wall.
Any hopes of the visitors taking it easy are misguided though.
Most sides, four goals to the good, would perhaps look to rotate, especially with Barcelona fighting on multiple fronts.
The Champions League favourites remain in the hunt for a domestic treble having already secured the Supercopa, they play Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey final and are four points clear at the top of La Liga.
The chances of Barcelona taking their foot off the gas are slim, it’s just not in Hansi Flick’s nature.
Flick will want to make sure this tie is well and truly put beyond Dortmund which should see him start the big hitters from the off.
At 9/10, I certainly see the appeal of backing the visitors.
What are the best bets?
RAPHINHA scored the opener and set two more goals up in the first leg.
It takes the Brazilian to 25 goals and 15 assists for the season across all competitions, it's no wonder he leads the betting for the Ballon d'Or. It just beggars belief he was in a relegation fight with Leeds a couple of seasons ago.
In this competition, Raphinha tops both the goalscorer and the assist charts with 12 goals and seven assists. Imagine the price on that outright double…
The 'King' has SCORED OR ASSISTED in nine of his 11 European appearances so backing him to do one or the other is a no brainer at 5/6.
Team news
Dortmund will be without the suspended Pascal Gross, and injured duo Marcel Sabitzer and Nico Schlotterbeck, the latter is a long-term absentee.
BVB switched to a back three in the 2-2 draw with Bayern at the weekend but may revert back to the more familiar 4-2-3-1 on Tuesday.
This would potentially see Serhou Guirassy spearhead the attack with Karim Adeyemi, Julian Brandt and Jamie Gittens operating in behind.
As for the visitors, Barcelona will want to put this beyond doubt which could see Flick name a strong XI. Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha could all feature from the off.
Marc Bernal, Marc-Andre ter Stegen and Marc Casado are unavailable due to injuries and Dani Olmo is also a doubt.
Predicted line-ups
Dortmund: Kobel; Ryerson, Can, Anton, Bensebaini; Gross, Nmecha; Gittens, Brandt, Adeyemi; Guirassy
Barcelona: Szczesny; Kounde, Araujo, Cubarsi, Martin; Pedri, De Jong; Yamal, Lopez, Raphinha; Lewandowski
Match facts
- Borussia Dortmund have never beaten Barcelona in European competition (P6 D2 L4). If they fail to win here, it will be their joint-longest winless run against an opponent in Europe, along with a seven-game streak against Rangers between 1966 and 1999.
- Barcelona have won all three of their games against German sides in the UEFA Champions League this season, beating Bayern Munich (4-1) and Borussia Dortmund twice (3-2 and 4-0). Prior to this season, they had lost five in a row against German opponents in the competition, by an aggregate score of 19-2.
- Borussia Dortmund are winless in their three home games against Barcelona in European competition (D2 L1), including a defeat to them already in the UEFA Champions League this season (2-3 in December). Barcelona could become the first side to win away to Dortmund more than once in the same European campaign.
- Borussia Dortmund’s defeat in the reverse fixture was the 160th time that a team have lost by 4+ goals in the first leg of a knockout stage tie in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League. Of the previous 159, only one team have ever managed to progress from the second leg: Barcelona versus Paris SG in the last 16 in 2016- 17 (lost 0-4 in the first leg, won 6-1 in the second).
- Barcelona lead by four goals from the first leg against Borussia Dortmund; they last won a UEFA Champions League knockout stage tie by a bigger aggregate margin in 2011-12, which was also against a German opponent (10-2 v Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16 – 3-1 away, 7-1 at home).
- Among teams to play 10+ games in a European Cup/UEFA Champions League campaign, Barcelona’s goals per game ratio in 2024-25 is the second-best by a team in a single edition (3.3). Indeed, the only side to average more was Bayern Munich in 2019-20 (3.9), who were managed by current Barcelona boss Hansi Flick in eight of their 11 games that season.
- Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski has scored 60 goals in 59 UEFA Champions League appearances since turning 30, with only Cristiano Ronaldo netting more in the competition in his 30s (68 goals in 74 games).
- Barcelona’s Raphinha has been directly involved in 19 goals in 11 UEFA Champions League appearances this season (12 goals, seven assists), and could become just the third player to reach 20+ goal involvements in a single edition, after Cristiano Ronaldo (21 in 2013-14, 20 in 2015-16) and Robert Lewandowski (20 in 2019-20). (See graphic on next page)
- Serhou Guirassy has netted 10 goals in 13 appearances for Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League this term, but hasn’t scored in any of his last four games. Indeed, none of his last 10 shots in the competition have been converted, after scoring with 40% of shots this season beforehand (10/25).
- Among centre backs to play 500+ minutes in the UEFA Champions League this season, Barcelona pair Iñigo Martínez (14.8) and Pau Cubarsí (14.6) both rank in the top five players for line-breaking passes per 90. Meanwhile, the centre back top of this ranking is Borussia Dortmund’s Nico Schlotterbeck (16.8), who is absent from this tie through injury.
Odds correct at 1530 BST (14/04/25)
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