Jake predictions quarters

Jake Osgathorpe's 2026 World Cup tips and predictions: Quarter Finals

Football
Fri July 10, 2026 · 19h ago

Jake's World Cup 2026 Predictions: Staked 148.00pts | Returned 181.46pts | P/L +33.46pts | ROI 22.6%

***correct as of 11:00 BST (10/7/26)

Football betting tips: World Cup

Norway vs England - Saturday 22:00

2pts Harry Kane to score anytime at evens (BetVictor)

1.5pts Julian Ryerson to commit 2+ fouls at 11/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Argentina vs Switzerland - Sunday 02:00

2pts Lionel Messi to score anytime at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt Lionel Messi 1+ assist at 3/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Norway vs England

England were excellent against Mexico, and their reward for beating the co-hosts at the daunting Azteca is a clash with Norway after they ousted Brazil.

While Norway are perhaps a better opponent than the record World Cup winners, the Three Lions are perhaps happy to see the Scandinavians here and not Seleção.

That's because the Brazilians would likely deal with the elements better than England - with the weather set to be sweltering in Miami at kick-off - and the South Americans would have an incredible amount of support, so much so it would have felt like another away game for the Three Lions.

Playing at high intensity and high speed may only be possible for short bursts in this heat, which could make the first goal incredibly important, so a fast start once again from England feels paramount.

They will be prepped and ready here, with Thomas Tuchel so far faultless in his approach, and it could well be that England really expose Norway's average defence here.

Erling Haaland's goals do paper over the cracks, with the Norwegians ranking as the worst defensive side of the eight teams to have made it this far (8.1 xGA - 1.62 per game).

In England they face the side who have generated the fifth most xG (9.9 - 1.98 per game) at the World Cup and the team who have created the most big chances (23 - 4.6 per game).

That all leads me to HARRY KANE TO SCORE ANYTIME at evens, with that price just too big for a player who is in the form of his life, gets plenty of chances and is on penalties for the team who are odds-on favourites to win.

Kane has six goals at the World Cup, finding the net in four of England's five outings, with his data excellent as the spearhead of the Three Lions attack. He's averaging 3.86 shots per 90, 2.03 shots on target per 90 and 0.70 xG per 90, and I do think Norway will find it difficult to stop England's forwards.

It's likely to be a particularly difficult game for right-back JULIAN RYERSON, and he should be backed at 11/8 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS. The Dortmund man is an attack-minded full-back who does get left isolated at times with Alexander Sørloth playing ahead of him - Sørloth is a striker by trade rather than a right-winger.

Ryerson has played more than 60 minutes only twice at this World Cup, missing two games through an injury he picked up after 13 minutes in the second group game, and has committed two fouls in both of those contests. On Saturday he'll be faced with England's dual-threat on the left-wing, with Anthony Gordon and Marcus Rashford likely to cause major problems for Ryerson over the full 90 minutes, with help from an overlapping Nico O'Reilly.

The Norwegian is 4/1 for a card which was tempting, but referee Clement Turpin has been hit and miss at this tournament so far, showing no cards in England's win over Croatia before two and five card hauls most recently.

Score prediction: Norway 1-3 England (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct at 11:10 BST (10/07/26)

Argentina vs Switzerland

There is no mistaking that Argentina have made life hard for themselves in the last two rounds, but I think their performances have, for the most part, been excellent.

Yes they have conceded twice to both Cape Verde and Egypt, but those four goals came to a backdrop of just 1.35 xG, with those opponents extremely clinical in putting their best chances away.

Egypt, who were 2-0 up on the reigning champions, were thoroughly outplayed and it was just a matter of time until the tide turned. Argentina were banging hard on the door before breaking it of it's hinges, with their quality squad depth coming to the fore.

They are suspect in transition, that is for sure, but I'd argue that's even more the case when behind and they have to chase the game, that's how Egypt got their second goal (and the goal that was disallowed), and it is something Lionel Scaloni will no doubt be mindful of heading into the latter stages of the World Cup.

After all, they have conceded an average of just 0.59 xGA per game at the tournament so not a whole lot needs fixing. I'd be far more concerned about them were that average double what it is.

Their attack though, crikey. Led by Lionel Messi, they have been brilliantly consistent in their chance creation, averaging 2.17 xGF per game and scoring three or more in four of their five matches - yes one of those went to extra-time but still...

Switzerland will probably have to score at least twice to have a chance in this tie, and that still might not be enough. The Swiss offered nothing in forward areas in the last round against Colombia, taking just seven shots equating to 0.39 xG across the full 120 minutes. Only on of those shots came in extra-time too as they were clearly playing for penalties.

Colombia lacked the cutting edge to put them away, but we know for a fact that is something Argentina have in spades, and it all revolves around one man - LIONEL MESSI.

Eight goals and one assist in five outings is an incredible return, and it has to be said, he looks a hungry as ever. The way he celebrated his equalising goal against Egypt was quite something, the passion on display something we seldom see from the great man nowadays.

The little magician has delivered for us numerous times at the tournament already and I don't think now is the time to stop, especially when we can back him TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/11 and to register 1+ ASSIST at 3/1.

By this point you will know that Messi is, effectively, a one man band in attack for Argentina. Everything goes through him. So it's no surprise that he leads his nation in quite literally every attacking metric at the World Cup - and by some way.

In terms of shooting and goalscoring: he has eight goals, the next best Argentinean is on one. He's racked up 5.0 expected goals, the next best is at 1.9. Messi's xG per 90 stands at 1.10, next best at 0.65. Shots on target per 90: Messi's at 3.7 and the next best is 0.9. In terms of shots per 90, Messi averages 6.4 with the next best at 2.6.

He takes penalties (even if he does miss his fair share) and direct free-kicks too which is a bonus.

And in terms of creating chances: Messi is only tied for assists (1), but has created six big chances which is four more than anyone else. He's created 15 chances at the World Cup, which is nine more than any teammate. His expected assist tally of 2.6 is nearly triple the next best (0.9) while his xA per 90 of 0.58 is also clear of his fellow countryman (0.35).

Messi takes all the wide free-kicks and corners which increases his chances of an assist too.

If Argentina are to do anything in an attacking sense in this game, there is a high chance it'll either be a goal from Messi or an assist from Messi. In fact, at this tournament with Messi on the pitch and discounting own goals, Argentina have scored 11 goals with Messi having a hand in nine of them.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing the goal and assist double at 13/2 (William Hill) which landed against Egypt.

Switzerland could cause a few issues for Argentina but I'm of the mind, and I said as much in this column - scroll down I'm not lying, that the favourites haven't hit top gear yet and that from this stage onwards we'll see the best versions of the top sides which could make this a tough game for the Swiss who simply haven't faced an opponent anywhere near the level of the reigning champs at the tournament.

Score prediction: Argentina 3-1 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Odds correct at 15:00 BST (10/07/26)

Already advised

Quarter-final fourfolds

1.5pts France, Spain, England and Argentina all to qualify at 21/10 (bet365)

0.5pt France, Spain, England and Argentina all to win in 90 minutes at 7/1 (William Hill)

0.5pt Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi all to score in 90 minutes at 14.8/1 (bet365)

❌ 0.1pt Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi all to score 2+ goals in 90 minutes at 1352/1 (bet365)

France vs Morocco - Thursday 21:00

✅ 2pts Kylian Mbappé to score anytime at 10/11 (bet365)

❌ 0.5pt Kylian Mbappé to score 2+ goals at 5/1 (bet365)

✅ 1pt Issa Diop to be carded at 4/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Spain vs Belgium - Friday 20:00

1.25pt Spain to win to nil at 19/10 (BetVictor)

1pt Nathan Ngoy to be carded at 10/3 (bet365)

1pt Maxim De Cuyper to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)

I think it's fair to say that the 2026 World Cup has been really good - on the pitch. Some of the games have been excellent, and it seems as though sides have forgotten how to defend.

They haven't forgotten how to attack though, and if anything I'd argue we've seen some of the best attacking football for a long time during the tournament.

As things stand heading into the quarter-finals, FIFA are getting their way. While things haven't gone as scripted, with some early big-name casualties, we are in a spot where it seems highly likely, to me anyway, that the top four seeds will make up the final four.

Quarter-final acca

Those are Argentina, France, Spain and England. FIFA drew the bracket up hoping to get those four in the semis and it looks highly likely that will happen.

In fact, I'd argue that it would be a huge shock were any of the four not to make the semis, with the Europeans growing into the tournament nicely and the reigning champions continuing to find ways to get through.

I think there is a gulf between the top four and their opponents, and while perhaps not the smartest thing to do in knockout football, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the quarters were chalk - that all four favourites advanced. The TO QUALIFY fourfold pays around 21/10 and that looks value to me.

I have a feeling that, the Europeans in particular, haven't yet hit top gear, but now, with the manic early tournament schedule behind them and far more rest days in between their last 16 and quarter-final ties, I expect the favourites to show up in a big way.

For a bigger price I'll also recommend a small stake on ALL FOUR FAVOURITES TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES at 7/1.

History suggests there will be at least one upset, but in previous editions of this great tournament we haven't seen as many games, as many minutes in legs or squad depth play such a big part in games, with strength off the bench - especially in the elements - a huge advantage for the four favourites.

We'll also have a fun bet on the goalscorers, where we can back KYLIAN MBAPPÉ, HARRY KANE, ERLING HAALAND and LIONEL MESSI all TO SCORE ANYTIME at just shy of 15/1.

The four stars are the four top scorers at the World Cup, unsurprisingly, with Messi and Haaland scoring in every game they have played at the tournament and Mbappé and Kane netting in four of five.

It's a fun one to cheer on with all four players on penalty duty, all in attack minded teams who funnel everything through them, and all up against vulnerable defences.

We'll have a small flutter on them all TO SCORE A BRACE too at north of 1000/1. Mbappé has three braces in five games, Kane two in five, Haaland three in four and Messi two in five. You never know...

It's worth noting that the prices quoted for these fourfolds are with bet365, who offer super sub and include extra-time in the bets, with the latter a potentially huge boost for the brace acca.

France vs Morocco

I thought France were excellent against Paraguay. They showed an incredible amount of grit and determination in a challenging situation - the challenge being getting physically beaten up with no punishment for the Paraguayans, who were playing for a 0-0.

The French could have easily lost their heads, getting rattled by things outside of their control, but they dealt with the situation with serious swagger in my opinion. I loved Kylian Mbappé smiling and playing wind up merchant against the South Americans who were trying to kick him. Great viewing.

Now they face Morocco, the side they beat in the 2022 World Cup semi finals, though the Africans are admittedly much better now. Having said that, I still have question marks about them, especially against this level of opponent.

France, for my money, are probably the best team at the tournament, and their attack takes some stopping. Paraguay became just the second team in the last 18 international games to stop Les Bleus from scoring at least twice.

I think Didier Deschamps' side find the net at least twice here, with Morocco unlikely to adopt a similar approach to Paraguay meaning more space for the scary French forward quartet to really do some damage.

Keeping things simple, KYLIAN MBAPPÉ is 10/11 to SCORE ANYTIME and that is value. Seven goals in the World Cup already, on penalty duty and looking incredibly sharp and determined in North America, he will take some stopping.

Add in the fact that he likes to operate slightly off the French left, and he could find real joy with Achraf Hakimi's forward runs likely to leave pockets for the France captain.

At 5/1, we'll also back MBAPPÉ TO SCORE 2+ GOALS. It has been a tournament of braces, especially for the super stars, and Mbappé has scored three braces in his five games at the tournament. Should France get ahead, there will be even more space for Mbappé to hurt Morocco in transition, increasing the likelihood of a multi-goal-haul.

We'll also have a card bet, with the aforementioned ISSA DIOP a lovely price of 4/1 TO BE CARDED. He could be left exposed down Morocco's right, having to deal with Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué and Mbappé, maybe even Michael Olise if France look to overload the spaces left by Hakimi.

Diop has two cards at the tournament already (0.47 per 90) and also picked up two cards in limited Premier League minutes last season.

The referee here is Argentina Facundo Tello who has shown seven cards in two World Cup appearances, so isn't the worst appointment in what has been an admittedly poor tournament for cards.

Score prediction: France 2-0 Morocco (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 11:00 BST (09/07/26)

Spain vs Belgium

Spain have really grown into the tournament, with their success built on ball dominance and a solid defensive record. It's very much a throwback to the side that won two Euros and a World Cup between 2008 and 2012.

They are suffocating teams to death and giving their opponents next to no chances to cause them problems. The underlying data speaks for itself.

La Furia Roja are yet to concede in North America, have conceded the second fewest shots per game (5.80) of sides to have made the last 16, the fewest shots on target per game (1.00) and by far and away the fewest expected goals (1.50 - 0.30 per game). The next best in that latter category is Argentina (0.60).

Spain have forced the most turnovers (252) and win the ball back faster than any side that remains in the tournament, so all things point to this being a very tough game for Belgium.

The Red Devils were excellent against the USA, dominating from the first whistle and playing with an intensity that we hadn't seen from them before. Perhaps the off-field injustice gave them a little extra motivation.

Prior to that game, Belgium hadn't looked very good at all, and should have been eliminated by Senegal in the round of 32, and it will be fascinating to see how they deal with this big, big step up in opponent.

I think they will struggle to do anything against this well-drilled Spain side, and yet another SPAIN WIN TO NIL looks the way to play this, with the price of 19/10 big value.

Michael Oliver is in great card-showing form at the World Cup

Michael Oliver is the referee for this one, and he has been one of the most prolific card throwers at the tournament. 13 yellows in three games is solid work, and his only knockout game to date saw eight yellows as Morocco knocked out co-hosts Canada.

This looks a good spot to have a card dart, and Brighton's MAXIM DE CUYPER looks nicely priced at 15/4 TO BE CARDED.

The Brighton left-back has been good going forward for Belgium, but he will be asked to do a lot of defending here against Spain, and especially against Lamine Yamal.

De Cuyper has been booked once already at the tournament, and Yamal has drawn two cards in the three games he's played more than 45 minutes at the tournament.

We'll also back NATHAN NGOY TO BE CARDED at 10/3, with the centre-back likely to struggle to deal with Spain's rotations and an unpredictable Mikel Oyarzabal, who provides a threat in behind and when coming short.

Ngoy has been sent off at this World Cup already and has committed 1.83 fouls per 90, while last season for Lille he was carded 11 times at an average of 0.41 per 90.

A Leandro Trossard card came close to being tipped too at 7/1 given how nearly all of his cards for Arsenal have come in big games, but we'll stick to the Belgium defenders and hope Oliver delivers once again.

Score prediction: Spain 2-0 Belgium (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 13:40 BST (09/07/26)

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