Daily tennis betting tips: Wimbledon
1.5pts Ben Shelton (+6.5) to beat Jannik Sinner on the game handicap at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Emma Navarro to beat Coco Gauff at 3/1 (bet365, William Hill, 888sport)
Jannik Sinner v Ben Shelton
It’s been a tough journey to this stage for Shelton, who has been taken to a final set in all three rounds thus far at Wimbledon.
But he’s still got the potential to make life awkward for the top seed, who has lost sets to Matteo Berrettini and Yannick Hanfmann on his route to the last 16.
Like Berrettini, Shelton has a big serve which has the potential to do plenty of damage – he’s been broken only four times in 15 sets at this tournament.
Shelton served 15 aces against Sinner when they met in Shanghai last autumn and I feel that’s a relevant match in terms of this contest.
The American won that day – 7-6 in the final set – and Shanghai has some of the fastest conditions on the ATP Tour.
OK, the Wimbledon courts aren’t as speedy as they once were but they still offer plenty of assistance to the big servers - as Berrettini showed with his 28-ace display against Sinner, a match in which he had his serve broken only twice.
Admittedly, Shelton doesn’t have the same grasscourt record as Berrettini but, as he proved in Shanghai, he’s capable of causing plenty of problems.
Both players to win a set is tempting at 6/4 but Shelton doesn’t have the greatest tie-break record and, realistically, that’s probably his best chance of snatching a set in this match.
Instead, I like Shelton on the game handicap.
Yes, he may well be feeling it given all the tennis in his legs but even a straight-sets defeat could see him cover a 6.5-game start here.
There looks to be every chance of a tie-break or two – there’s been one in all three previous meetings – and if that happens, Shelton should be in good stead to land the bet.
Emma Navarro v Coco Gauff
I’m hardly totally convinced that Navarro can win this but I do think she’s worth a try at the price.
She’s enjoyed an excellent 12 months, winning 67 matches at all levels since leaving SW19 last year.
On the main tour in 2024, she’s now 33-14, winning her maiden WTA title in Hobart and beating the likes of Aryna Sabalenka, Madison Keys and Elina Svitolina.
But most eye-catching have been her efforts on the grass in recent weeks.
At the warm-up event in Bad Homburg, Navarro made the semi-finals and since arriving at Wimbledon she’s taken out former world number one Naomi Osaka and the champion at that German event, Diana Shnaider.
Gauff will clearly be a step up in class but the same applies the other way round with the second seed yet to face anyone of note, meaning the fact she’s yet to lose a set is less impressive than it might be.
The US Open champion has never been beyond this stage of Wimbledon before so that will bring added pressure to the heavy favourite who, it should be remembered, is yet to reach a grasscourt final.
She does have the game to improve on that but the in-form Navarro looks worth a go at a chunky price.
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