Where will we see Economics next?

By Matt Brocklebank

Horse Racing

Mon June 10, 2024 · 10M ago

Matt Brocklebank reckons Economics is likely to be seen next at York next month - but has some slight concerns regarding the initial hype.

Last year William Haggas may have won the Gimcrack, the Queen Mary, a Royal Ascot handicap and Gordon Stakes for the King and Queen, plus a bunch of Group 3s with the admirable Hamish, but it can’t have been a particularly easy campaign for the stable after the journey they all went on with Baaeed in 2021 and 2022.

Having once billed him “the perfect racehorse”, Haggas was making it very clear early on last year that he’ll never come close to replacing a horse like Baaeed – who himself didn’t make any of the Classics - and, set in that kind of context, you can understand why the trainer was keen enough to pour cold water on all the clamour surrounding Economics and a possible Derby U-turn this spring.

The length-and-a-half Newbury maiden winner had seemingly just improved his form by the thick end of two stone, dancing in by six lengths at York with a visible excuse for him to have done quite the opposite (blood in his nostrils), and yet there was Haggas calmly explaining to those willing to listen that the son of Night Of Thunder had, in all likelihood, little hope of excelling over a mile and a half at this stage of his development.

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I say ‘there was Haggas’ – the truth is, he wasn’t actually present on Dante day and only really spoke to anyone at any great length on the subject on the Nick Luck Daily Podcast the following Friday.

“We want to give him more time…”, featured among the trainer’s measured response, along with "we'll see in the fulness of time..." and "...time, Nick, I just think horses need time."

The general consensus is that he’d have gone off 2/1 favourite or thereabouts for this year’s Derby, so did time prove that Haggas was right to give it a swerve?

All things considered, it’s hard to argue he missed a golden opportunity – Dante runner-up Ancient Wisdom was beaten 10 lengths further by City Of Troy in a well-held eighth at Epsom, and York fifth God’s Window beaten 19 lengths further.

But how much time are we talking here, and when might we see Economics next?

Stuart Riley tackled that subject in the Racing Post this week and concluded that supplementing for the Coral-Eclipse (at a cost of £37,500) probably wouldn’t be the preferred course of action, and on the back of City Of Troy on Sunday being confirmed for Sandown, I think we can double down on that – and some.

It does seem a pity he’ll (presumably) skip an occasion like Royal Ascot, due to the King Edward VII Stakes being over 12 furlongs and the Hampton Court merely a Group 3, but if all roads lead to a crack at the Juddmonte International, as one might reasonably expect, then surely you can forget Deauville’s Prix Guillaume d’Ornano or a trip to the Arlington Million, as it must be a short price they’ll look to set up a Knavesmire hat-trick and go via the Sky Bet York Stakes.

Run over precisely the same one mile, two furlongs and 56 yards of the Dante and the International, the valuable Group 2 on July 27 leaves a tailor-made three and a half weeks to build up to the big one at the Ebor meeting in August. One step at a time, just how Haggas likes it.

The race does come one with small caveat when it comes to Economics, however, and that is a bit of a wealth warning.

Haggas won the York Stakes in 2013 with Mukhadram but there were some fairly nervy moments late on for those who took the skinny prices that day as the 4/9 favourite held on by a diminishing three-quarters of a length, since when the Newmarket trainer has saddled seven horses in it, all of which have been beaten. They've included four favourites at 4/5, 5/4, 11/8 and the even-money shot My Prospero last summer.

Wherever he runs next, Economics won't be a big price, that much is clear. But let's hope he's well worth the wait.

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