Newcastle tips & best bets: Value Bet preview for Northumberland Plate day on June 26
Value Bet tips: Saturday June 26
1pt win Ainsdale in 2.20 Newcastle at 20/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Red Force One in 2.55 Newcastle at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Mancini in 3.30 Newcastle at 33/1 (Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Red-hot Burke has Chipchase chance
AINSDALE is over-priced in a relatively hot renewal of the Group Three William Hill Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle on Saturday.
Diligent Harry looked a bit of a shooting star over the winter and gets weight from everything as the sole three-year-old in the line-up, Khuzaam is the kind of well-bred trip-dropper that never fails to get punters excited, while Good Effort and Tabdeed haven’t been seen in a while but this race would appear the ideal target for each of them.
But there is real depth here with the likes of Chil Chil another squarely in the mix after her Newmarket handicap rout from a mark of 97 at the beginning of May.
Big runs from relative veterans Oh This Is Us or Brando would come as no surprise either but the Richard Fahey-trained Ventura Rebel and Ainsdale are the eyecatchers in this scenario, with preference for Karl Burke’s horse, who looks to have a good draw in the middle (stall 7).
Burke – who has really hit form in the past week to 10 days - has been desperate to get the son of Mayson back over six furlongs at some point as he’s been running over the minimum since a low-key comeback at Doncaster, where the ground was way too fast for him and the yard was under a bit of a cloud anyway.
The subsequent five-furlong outings with cheekpieces added (retained here) have been really quite promising, finishing with a rattle from stall seven when beaten a length by course specialist El Astronaute at Chester, before getting within a neck of Liberty Beach in the Temple Stakes (click for free video replay).
He split rivals rated 109 and 106 at Haydock so the revised rating of 105 looks more than merited and there’s surely untapped potential back at this distance. He posted arguably the best performance of his life when winning a conditions race at Newmarket over six last October – again seeing off higher-rated rivals – and the weekend switch to Tapeta is intriguing as well.
Mayson’s progeny don’t have a wildly strong record on the surface in general but the way the track was riding on Thursday (seemingly suiting horses with a preference for softer conditions) gives the impression a horse like Ainsdale will be perfectly at home on it at present.
He only really found his stride deep into the campaign as a two-year-old, and again as a three-year-old, so posting a big number here on his fourth start this time around – and his first ever over the six-furlong trip in headgear - looks distinctly possible.
Take Williams to work magic with Mancini
Running Trueshan in the William Hill Northumberland Plate Handicap is a bold and welcome move by trainer Alan King and connections after he was forced to skip the Gold Cup when the rain hit Royal Ascot a matter of hours too late for the Champions Long Distance Cup hero.
He beat 2020 Plate winner Caravan Of Hope at Wolverhampton on his only previous all-weather start so the signs are good but a mark of 118 won’t be easy to overcome back in handicap company, even considering Rhys Clutterbuck’s 5lb claim.
MANCINI has snared at least one nice prize in each of the past three seasons and the odds on Ian Williams pulling another rabbit out of his hat with this horse are too great to ignore.
Williams is a genius with his stayers on the Flat and has been at it again this season, The Grand Visir’s fine second to Falcon Eight in the Chester Cup bettered by Reshoun winning the Ascot Stakes at 66/1 from Willie Mullins’ M C Muldoon last week.
Mancini ran in the same two and a half-mile race at the Royal meeting and, having cut out much of the early running as a 125/1 shot, weakened right out of things to finish 14th of the 19 who went to post.
He’s consequently 2lb ‘wrong’ here which isn’t a great start when it comes to assessing his credentials but he’s bounced back from some lesser displays in the past to run huge races next time out. They include when winning at Sandown immediately after finishing sixth at Ascot last summer and winning at York having been seventh at Ascot the year before that.
He’s just a bit of a character, highlighted by the fact David Probert will be the 14th new jockey he’s had throughout his career, and Williams switching back to the visor he wore (without success, admittedly) at Chester in September and again at their May meeting this spring.
But there’s no denying he’s perfectly well treated if consenting to put it all in – he’s running off 93 this weekend having won his last two handicaps from a mark of 91.
The move to Newcastle is definitely a potential source of improvement/revival for him too as while former trainer Johnny Portman always considered him a ‘top-of-the-ground horse’, Nathaniel’s progeny have done well on synthetic tracks overall and boast a healthy 21% strike-rate (16-74) on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface specifically.
Another big factor is that he looks likely to get his favoured spot on, or just off, the speed. Mark Johnston runs five and may wish to control the pace to some degree through Mildenberger, Watersmeet and Hochfeld but otherwise Galata Bridge is the only other confirmed front-runner.
Stall one could be a disaster in disguise for Dr Richard Newland’s horse if Mildenberger (3) and Watersmeet (5) chop him off down on the inside but Mancini (10) is surrounded by slower starters and will most likely be somewhere in the box seat.
These marathons on sharp tracks can often be run at really muddling tempos so while it’s evidently possible to defy a wide draw and a rear position around here (Caravan Of Hope broke from 17 last year), I’d much rather side with a horse who looks likely to be in position when the dash for home really begins turning in.
Mancini comes with significant risks attached but putting faith in his trainer to deliver precisely this kind of horse for this kind of prize has proved rewarding in recent years and there’s enough in place to suggest some real progress could be in the offing on Saturday.
May the Force be with you in consolation
RED FORCE ONE is the one to be on in the William Hill Pick Your Places Northumberland Vase Handicap.
He barely came off the bridle when bolting up on just his fourth run for Phil Kirby at Ayr in April and is far too big here at 33/1 having had just the one run at Epsom since.
Nothing went right for him there, the rain and losing a shoe contributing to a relatively limp effort which looks well worth excusing.
The Ayr form reads very well – runner-up Raymond, who reopposes on just 1lb better terms this weekend, came out to win a nice pot at York the following month, where he had subsequent scorers General Zoff and Frankenstella back in third and fourth respectively.
Red Force One will presumably be back over hurdles soon and he’s fairly useful in that sphere having won last year’s Summer Handicap Hurdle at Market Rasen, but he’s also got all-weather experience in jumpers’ bumpers from his time with Paul Nicholls and I’m pretty sure he’ll stay every yard of this trip nowadays in spite of his pedigree (by top-class sprinter Lethal Force).
Jockey Paul Hanagan (4-21 for the yard) is riding at the top of his game again now and will have to be sharp from the widest stall in 20 but the horse is versatile tactically and was beaten just a nose off exactly the same mark at Kempton (standard to slow) in early-2019 so there’s no issue from a handicapping perspective either.
I’d be with him at 20s and bigger so he merits an each-way play.
Published at 1500 BST on 25/06/21
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