Free betting preview and tips | Ben Linfoot's 2021 Northumberland Plate horse-by-horse guide
William Hill Northumberland Plate Handicap
3.20 Newcastle, Saturday June 26
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- Sire stats up to date on 23/06/2021
1. TRUESHAN
(Breeding: Planteur – Shao Line. Sire stats at Newcastle: 3/10 30%)
The class act in the race, he took his form to new heights when landing the Long Distance Cup at Ascot on Champions Day last October by seven and a half lengths. His Ormonde Stakes reappearance second under a penalty was encouraging, too, while he was ruled out of last week’s Gold Cup because of the fast ground. Winning off a mark of 118 would be a record, but this surface promises to suit – he won on Tapeta at Wolverhampton on his sole all-weather start and his sire does well with his progeny on this terrain. Alan King takes 5lb off him thanks to claiming jockey Rhys Clutterbuck. Big chance.
2. MILDENBERGER
(Breeding: Teofilo – Belle Josephine. Sire stats at Newcastle: 9/118 7.63%)
Not seen this season and was ruled out of the Queen Alexandra last Saturday on account of the soft ground. Has gone well fresh a couple of times in the past which bodes well, but was beaten in a four-runner race the last time he competed in a handicap in this country (off a 4lb lower mark) so looks up against it off these terms.
3. RAINBOW DREAMER
(Breeding: Aqlaam – Zamhrear. Sire stats at Newcastle: 7/80 8.75%)
Was a bit keen early on in this race last year but finished a creditable two-and-a-half-length fifth off a 3lb lower mark. He hasn’t run to that level in six subsequent starts, and has been well beaten on his last two runs – both on turf. The return to this surface needs to inspire a serious improvement for him to get involved and others look more appealing.
4. WATERSMEET
(Breeding: Dansili – Under The Rainbow. Sire stats at Newcastle: 14/131 10.69%)
A veteran stayer who is better on the all-weather than the turf, racking up over £200,000 in prize-money and 13 victories on artificial surfaces. Hasn’t won at this track in four goes but has run with credit on each occasion, particularly when fourth to Withhold in the 2018 renewal of this race. He can be dangerous if let loose on the lead, but that looks unlikely in this big field, especially with a couple of frontrunners at the bottom of the weights.
5. THEMAXWECAN
(Breeding: Maxios – Psychometry. Sire stats at Newcastle: 1/14 7.14%)
It’s probably worth forgiving his Royal Ascot 14th from last Tuesday. He raced wide on the speed and weakened dramatically in the last two furlongs, but he’s better than that and he’s bounced back from heavy defeats before. Twice a winner over two miles including off a mark of 98, he’s not handicapped out of things and he’s interesting switching to this surface given he’s one from one on the all-weather (at Chelmsford).
6. RESHOUN
(Breeding: Shamardal – Radiyya. Sire stats at Newcastle: 15/130 11.54%)
Runs under a 5lb penalty here following his short head verdict over M C Muldoon in the Ascot Stakes and is officially 1lb wrong. That 66/1 victory came in cheekpieces but Ian Williams keeps things fresh by switching to a visor which he won first time in at Newbury last July. He’s respected on that form and his Royal Ascot win, but a new career-best is required off a mark of 102 and he finished last on his only previous go on the Newcastle Tapeta.
7. DUBIOUS AFFAIR
(Breeding: Frankel – Dubian To. Sire stats at Newcastle: 18/67 26.87%)
Her unlucky head second to Amtiyaz at Royal Ascot last week over 1m6f was the best effort of her career and she’s 4lb well in here on the back of it. She kept on well despite a troubled trip that day, hinting that she has what it takes to thrive over two miles, but she has yet to prove herself at the distance with her only go being in the Long Distance Cup when beaten 61 lengths by Trueshan at 150/1. It’s unfair to judge her suitability for two miles on that effort and she had a good all-weather record when trained by Sir Michael Stoute, although she’s never run on Tapeta. Frankel progeny have a good record here, though, which is encouraging.
8. LUCKY DEAL
(Breeding: Mastercraftsman – Barter. Sire stats at Newcastle: 19/160 11.88%)
A four-time winner over two miles with three of those victories coming on the all-weather – including at this track. His course and distance win came in a six-runner field in December off a 4lb lower mark and he is 2lb wrong here having being down the field in Reshoun’s race at Royal Ascot. That signalled back-to-back flops after a heavy defeat in the Chester Cup and with all eight of his career victories coming in field sizes of 10 or less it’s questionable whether this is the kind of race he’ll bounce back in.
9. SIR CHAUVELIN
(Breeding: Authorized – Jabbara. Sire stats at Newcastle: 1/32 3.13%)
Has run at this track eight times, winning once, finishing third and sixth in this race, while he has been fourth in the consolation, as well. He’s only ever run one bad race here so he clearly goes well at Newcastle but he is a hold-up horse who needs everything to drop right. A mark of 100 is the highest he’s ever been asked to run off in the Plate and he was well beaten when last seen, also at this track, 385 days ago. It would be a monumental effort to win this first time up after such an absence.
10. ISLAND BRAVE
(Breeding: Zebedee – Tip The Scale. Sire stats at Newcastle: 19/188 10.11%)
Twice a winner at this track from five starts and finished fifth to Withhold in the 2018 running of this race. That was off a mark of 100 – the same rating he runs off on Saturday – and he has a course and distance win off a mark of 97 under his belt, too. Three victories at Wolverhampton are further evidence he loves a Tapeta surface and even though he was a 125/1 chance when ninth at Royal Ascot last week (had a wide trip) he’s hard to strike a line through at a big price.
11. ALRIGHT SUNSHINE
(Breeding: Casamento – Miss Gibraltar. Sire stats at Newcastle: 14/103 13.59%)
Hugely progressive stayer in 2019 and while last year was a bit of a write off the signs are that Alright Sunshine is slowly getting back in the groove. A failed hurdles campaign was followed by two really encouraging runs over inadequate trips at Hamilton in May and he won the second of those in a first-time visor over 1m4f. He’s dead interesting coming back up in trip with that confidence boost to aid him and the headgear is retained. So is claiming jockey Billy Garrity – a rider who has had five wins at 19% at Newcastle this year – and his mount has a clear form chance on his only previous run at Gosforth Park where he mixed it with high-class stayers in the 2020 running of the Sagaro Stakes.
12. HOCHFELD
(Breeding: Cape Cross – What A Charm. Sire stats at Newcastle: 17/118 14.41%)
Looks one of the pace angles from stall 15 under Ben Curtis and has held his form well this year. The standouts are his win at Nottingham in April, his second at Hamilton the following month and his Chester Cup third, where he was a little unlucky in the run. Not quite at that level in two subsequent starts and he’s 1lb wrong here after his Royal Ascot seventh behind Amtiyaz, but the step back up to two miles should suit. Unproven at this track, he is a winner on the Wolverhampton Tapeta.
13. GRANDMASTER FLASH
(Breeding: Australia – Kittens. Sire stats at Newcastle: 4/31 12.9%)
Likes the Dundalk polytrack and is a three-time winner there for Joesph O’Brien. Came over for the Chester Cup consolation race and was well beaten off his turf mark of 89, but should put a better showing on this surface for all that he has to race off an 8lb higher mark. The worry is he won’t be able to hold his position, but if he doesn’t get outpaced he’ll have a chance as he looks all stamina.
14. AUSTRALIS
(Breeding: Australia – Quiet Down. Sire stats at Newcastle: 4/31 12.9%)
Has been second twice from two starts at this track including in last year’s renewal of this race where he was beaten by Caravan Of Hope off a mark of 86. He’s 10lb higher in the weights now, but he could well resume his progression back on this surface and his comeback run after 50 days off over an inadequate mile and a half at Epsom wasn’t that bad at all.
15. STARGAZER
(Breeding: Canford Cliffs – Star Ruby. Sire stats at Newcastle: 16/203 7.88%)
Has won twice here from nine goes, finishing second on four occasions (was first past the post on one of those but was demoted). Has won over two miles here but has never run in this race or the consolation - yet has long looked the ideal type for this contest. He is a hold-up horse and he has a wide draw, so he might be a hostage to fortune, but Phil Kirby will likely have him primed and ready for his big day after almost three months off the track. On the shortlist.
16. NICHOLAS T
(Breeding: Rail Link – Thorntoun Piccolo. Sire stats at Newcastle: 5/46 10.87%)
Another hold-up horse, another wide draw. Nicholas T likes to come from off the pace and he has done so to great effect several times in his career, including at this track last November and when last seen at York in an amateur riders’ race. He has to prove he stays – he hasn’t run over two miles since his bumper days – and Jim Goldie has turned to the first-time hood in a bid to help him switch off in the early stages.
17. RAJINSKY
(Breeding: Zoffany – Pink Moon. Sire stats at Newcastle: 23/195 11.79%)
Rajinsky will likely be ridden more forward from stall 19 and he has a chance on his best form. Seventh in this race last year off a 7lb lower mark when too keen to do himself justice, he looks a more straightforward character these days having been ridden more prominently since then. He is hard to win with though – with one victory in a three-runner field to show from his last 10 starts.
18. GALATA BRIDGE
(Breeding: Golden Horn – Infallibe. Sire stats at Newcastle: 7/33 21.21%)
Here is the most obvious pace angle in the race. Dr Richard Newland’s horse has made the running on three of his last five starts including both runs for his new handler this season, while he’s drawn stall one, as well. His suitability for this track looks assured – he’s one from one here and Golden Horn progeny have a good record at the course – and he’s sufficiently lightly raced. The question mark is the trip as the furthest he’s ever gone is 1m6f and this race on the front end is a tough place to find out.
19. MANCINI
(Breeding: Nathaniel – Muscovado. Sire stats at Newcastle: 16/74 21.62%)
The other pace angle from the bottom of the weights is Mancini. He nearly always leads and he can be dangerous granted a controlling ride from the front, but he’s been badly out of form on his last three starts. Ian Williams goes back to the visor, which has never worked for him before, but he is back down to his last winning mark and the record of Nathaniel progeny at this track bodes well ahead of his surface debut (he’s one from one on the all-weather – the win coming at Chelmsford).
20. JUST HUBERT
(Breeding: Dunaden – La Tulipe. Sire stats at Newcastle: 0/5 0%)
Likes a test of stamina as he showed when winning over 2m4f at Goodwood so if this turned into a real slog it would be no surprise to see him running on better than most. The problem with him is whether he has the pace and he was well beaten in this contest last year off a 2lb lower mark.
Verdict
A massive ride for Rhys Clutterbuck who has never ridden for Alan King and has never ridden at Newcastle. Trueshan could well set a record for winning a handicap off the highest official rating and he’s uncomplicated so looks sure to go well, but it’ll be a tough task giving the weight away to some interesting stayers.
Dubious Affair looks sure to be in the mix if she can back up her good Royal Ascot run, while Stargazer and Island Brave could well come into things from off the pace granted a strong gallop.
They are all shortlist material, but the selection is ALRIGHT SUNSHINE who looks well treated off a mark of 99 considering his good run amongst an army of 100-plus horses at this track in last year’s rerouted Sagaro Stakes.
He stayed on that day like a horse who would’ve appreciated a bigger field and stronger gallop and he should get that on Saturday, while he goes into the race on the back of a confidence-boosting win over an inadequate trip at Hamilton.
- ALRIGHT SUNSHINE
- Trueshan
- Dubious Affair
- Stargazer
- Island Brave
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