Longhouse Poet was added to the shortlist for the 2023 Grand National just after he crossed the line in the 2022 Grand National (watch the full replay below).
Martin Brassil’s horse only finished sixth in the end last year, but he ran far better than that. He travelled really well for Darragh O’Keeffe for most of the way, down the inside and saving ground, and his jumping over the big spruce fences was superb in the main. He was just a little keen through the early stage of the race, he seemed to be doing a little more than his rider wanted him to do and, ultimately, that almost certainly took its toll. He travelled well in the front rank over the third last fence, and he touched down in a share of the lead at the second last, but he just tired from there.
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The performance that the Yeats gelding put up last year was not unlike the performance that Hedgehunter put up in 2004, when he raced keenly and exuberantly and fell at the final fence, a tired horse. Then Hedgehunter went back in 2005 and, racing off a 3lb higher mark, won doing handsprings.
Longhouse Poet will get to race off a handicap rating of 155 on Saturday, the same as the mark off which he raced last year. It is probable that Martin Brassil has been training him for the race since then, and we know that Martin Brassil is a top notch target trainer. He trained Numbersixvalverde to win the National in 2006, and his horses have been running really well of late, his two runners at the Cheltenham Festival were beaten by a head and a neck respectively, and Panda Boy ran a big race in the Irish Grand National on Monday.
Longhouse Poet is, like Numbersixvalverde, a Thyestes Chase winner. He kept on well to win over three and a quarter miles at Down Royal last month, and that run could leave him at concert pitch on Saturday.
Capodanno obviously hasn’t had a smooth run of things this season, he has run just once, but that means that he goes to Aintree a relatively fresh horse, and that could work in his favour.
Winner of a valuable handicap hurdle at the 2022 Punchestown Festival, he took a high rank among the top staying novice chasers last season, finishing fourth in the Brown Advisory Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before coming back to Punchestown and winning the Grade 1 three-mile novices’ chase there.
We didn’t see Willie Mullins’ horse this season until February, when he ran in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park. He led from early that day, but he just tired from the third last fence, which was understandable, as lack of a recent run probably told. He could show the benefit of that run on Saturday.
His handicap rating of 160 is high for the Grand National, but his burden of 11st 5lb is not an impossible burden any more. No horse carried more than 11st 1lb to victory between Corbiere in 1983 and Don’t Push It in 2010, but now, four of the last 12 winners have carried 11st 5lb or more. He is a talented, young, progressive staying chaser, and he could take another step forward on Saturday.
You have to have last year’s winner on your shortlist. Emmet Mullins’ horse blew the National stats out of the water last year when he won the race, a seven-year-old novice whose only win over fences before last year’s National had been gained over an extended two and a quarter miles.
The stats are against him again this year, Tiger Roll is the only horse since Red Rum to win back-to-back renewals of the great race. And he is 19lb higher in the handicap now than he was last year. But he has lots in his favour this year too.
For starters, he is a year older this year, an eight-year-old, like four of the six winners who went before him. As well as that, his form is better this year in the run up to the race than it was last year. He won the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase at Aintree in December, and he finished a staying-on third in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January before he went back to Cheltenham last month and finished fourth in the Gold Cup when, again, he was doing his best work at the finish.
We obviously know that he goes well at Aintree, that he can operate over the fences and that he stays the trip. He should appreciate the return to this track, he should relish the extreme stamina test that the Grand National presents, and it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him run a massive race again.
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