Breeders' Cup tips and preview: Best value bets for Del Mar on Saturday
Value Bet Breeders' Cup tips: Saturday November 6
1pt win Got Stormy in Breeders’ Cup Mile at 16/1 (General)
1.5pts win Walton Street in Breeders’ Cup Turf at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts win United in Breeders’ Cup Turf at 33/1 (General) - Declared a Non-runner
Stick to what you know
As touched upon in this week’s Podcast, anyone who claims the Breeders’ Cup is still a genuine coming together of the all the finest thoroughbreds in the world is kidding themselves to some extent, but I’m a huge fan of the whole occasion and it’s hard to argue there aren’t any attractive punting opportunities, especially on the turf course which is what I'll be sticking to for the purposes of this column.
It’s a wonderfully varied betting feast if you’re willing to get properly stuck into the American form and with the meeting returning to the super-quirky course at Del Mar for the first time since its debut ‘where the surf meets the turf’ in 2017, the travelling party could realistically only be in for a bit part role.
The one race in which Europeans have always at least held their own is the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf, back to the days of Pebbles, Pilsudski, Daylama and High Chaparral; and Tarnawa bids to follow in the latter’s footsteps - and those of Conduit - by becoming the third back-to-back Turf victor.
There are clearly a couple of stumbling blocks for her to overcome in order for the Arc runner-up to bring her very best form to the table but above all I fear the firm ground, something trainer Dermot Weld has already spoken about with an air of caution in the build-up.
Keeneland carried the same official going description when she swept past Magical and co to win in style 12 months ago but they’d had rain in the week and what she’ll encounter on the Pacific coast on Saturday will be a fair bit livelier than the conditions in Kentucky.
With Tarnawa’s main market rivals, Yibir and Teona, making very little appeal at the prices – the former is sluggish from the stalls and will get behind early, while the filly is a big unit far from guaranteed to enjoy these sharp turns – the race suddenly opens up.
Appleby knows the score in States
The bet has to be Yibir’s stablemate WALTON STREET. He’s the veteran of the party at seven but wouldn’t be the first Cape Cross to just continue to get better with age and they include the great Ouija Board, who won at the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs as a five-year-old.
It must be stressed, Walton Street is probably only fifth or sixth in the Charlie Appleby middle-distance pecking order from this year but the trainer – who now has a ridiculous strike-rate at this fixture, which also includes a close second with Wild Illusion – has evidently been aiming the well-travelled gelding at the race for a while and he looks made of the right stuff.
Like most of Appleby’s runners this weekend, he’s been put away and kept fresh since September, having bolted up from Desert Encounter in the ‘win and you’re in’ Canadian International, and I love the fact he’s so experienced when it comes to performing to a high level internationally.
He’s now won races in Britain, Dubai and Canada but has really smart form from France and Germany too, including a creditable third behind Alpinista and Arc hero Torquator Tasso at Hoppegarten in early-August this year.
That form – in fact all of his 2021 form which also features a fourth to Mishriff at Meydan – brings him right into the equation in behind Tarnawa, but what he also has is a more favourable draw (stall seven), plus a potential pace advantage having made the running in the past.
He doesn’t have to lead and in truth I don’t expect him to completely clear Acclimate and Tribhuvan down on his inside, but James Doyle is unlikely to be far off the early fractions before hopefully getting first run on the closers in the short home straight. He handles quick going well and could be hard to catch from that point.
I’m a little surprised Walton Street is still a double figure price and, almost from a draw/tactical perspective alone, I’d have him shorter in the betting that Yibir to win this.
Stormy night for the visitors
I’m willing to take a chance on age and wisdom winning the day in the Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile as well with speedy six-year-old mare GOT STORMY looking over-priced.
She’s just an incredible model of consistency no matter what distance she’s running over and also brings solid Breeders’ Cup experience to the table having finished second in the Mile in 2019 and fifth behind Glass Slippers in the Turf Sprint last year.
They’ve chopped and changed with her all year this time as well but she’s won two of her three starts at a mile and had her final prep in September when a fast-finishing sixth back over six furlongs at Kentucky Downs.
She was held up there but can sit anywhere in a race and if Tyler Gaffalione is able to get her out and relatively handy from her wide draw (11), I suspect he will.
She’s one from one at Del Mar and looks to have as good a shot as anything outside of the two nailed-on closers and market leaders, Space Blues and Mo Forza.
Published at 1600 GMT on 04/11/21
More Breeders' Cup content...
Matt Brocklebank rates the whole European party
Jake Price picks out a trio of dark horses
Our panel on the 'bankers or blowouts'
The Cunningham File
ITV Friday Breeders' Cup tips
Timeform Future Stars Friday tips
Steve Andersen on the California-based horses to watch
Jake Price's Breeders' Cup Classic preview
Alex Hammond's Breeders' Cup blog
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