Breeders' Cup tips: California-based horses heading to Del Mar under the radar
California-based Daily Racing Form correspondent Steve Andersen pinpoints a few potentially underestimated local runners this weekend.
The prominent Europeans, such as Space Blues, Tarnawa, and the Aidan O’Brien armada, have been given ample attention in advance of the Breeders’ Cup meeting at scenic Del Mar on the Southern California coast on Friday and Saturday.
Rightfully so.
Tarnawa, for one, ran a brilliant second to Torquator Tasso in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on October 3 despite a less-than-ideal trip on a heavy turf she did not seem to like. She deserves the role of favourite in the BC Turf, the most prominent grass race in America.
Even with outstanding credentials, every European-based runner is playing an away game this week at Del Mar, which has a seven-furlong turf layout with much tighter turns than anything in the UK other than Chester.
European runners are almost certainly to go home with trophies. But there are several California-based runners that deserve attention. While they may not necessarily win, bettors seeking each-way opportunities, or even exacta and trifecta combinations, may find something worth backing among this list of runners to watch.
Breeders' Cup Mile
Mo Forza and Smooth Like Strait have claimed major titles in one-mile graded stakes on turf at Del Mar and Santa Anita this year, and have every chance to produce a surprise result in the BC Mile.
Racegoers can never underestimate course and distance experience. Smooth Like Strait, trained by Michael McCarthy, has won two of five starts on turf at Del Mar, with three second-place finishes. Mo Forza, from the stable of top California trainer Peter Miller, has won three of six starts on the course, with two second-place finishes.
Mo Forza beat Smooth Like Strait by a head in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile on August 21 and by a half-length in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita on October 2. Smooth Like Strait was pressured early in the City of Hope Mile, while Mo Forza stalked the pace.
If Smooth Like Strait can be patient in the BC Mile, he can be a factor in the final furlong against runners such as Space Blues.
Breeders' Cup Turf
Back in March, Astronaut won a maiden race at 1 1/8 miles at Santa Anita in his fifth start and second race for trainer John Shirreffs. Since then, the four-year-old Astronaut has progressed rapidly.
Astronaut was second in his stakes debut in the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano Stakes at about 1 ¾ miles on turf at Santa Anita and followed with a breakthrough performance to record a 24-1 upset in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap at 1 3/8 miles on turf on August 21.
Astronaut closed from seventh of 11 to take the lead in the final strides in the Del Mar Handicap, a race that assured the colt an automatic berth to Saturday’s BC Turf.
Shirreffs, who became famous for guiding the career of the legendary Zenyatta more than a decade ago, has kept Astronaut in steady training in the last two months. In a conversation last weekend at Santa Anita, Shirreffs said Astronaut was the sort of horse that could be overlooked in the BC Turf, but could be the beneficiary of course experience, particularly around the tight turns at Del Mar.
There should be an honest pace in the BC Turf from Acclimate and Tribhuvan of America and Broome, trained by Aidan O’Brien. If so, Astronaut and the other closers, including race favourite Tarnawa, will be rumbling through the stretch.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Friday evening, the Colorado Avalanche of the National Hockey League host the Vancouver Canucks in a game in Denver. A few hours before face off, Mackinnon, named for Avalanche star player Nathan MacKinnon, will start as a live outsider in the Juvenile Turf.
Mackinnon, the colt, was purchased for $285,000 at a breeze-up sale in Florida in March and is co-owned by Nathan Mackinnon’s teammate, Erik Johnson, a true racing enthusiast.
Mackinnon has won two stakes in the last two months at a mile on turf – the Del Mar Juvenile Turf over the same course and distance as the BC Juvenile Turf, and the Zuma Beach Stakes at Santa Anita on October 3. In both wins, Mackinnon closed from mid-pack under jockey Juan Hernandez to prevail by at least 1 ¾ lengths.
The competition in the BC Juvenile Turf is notably more difficult, led by Dewhurst second Dubawi Legend. But Mackinnon will be around 8/1 and could be given the sort of ride from the underrated Hernandez that could make for a profitable first day of the Breeders' Cup.
Steve Andersen has been a correspondent for Daily Racing Form since 1994, focusing on Southern California Thoroughbred racing, Quarter Horses and international racing. Venues as diverse as Ruidoso Downs in New Mexico and Cheltenham are among his annual stops.
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