Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet column is over 135pts in profit to recommended stakes this year following a glorious Goodwood week - check out his long-range Haydock thoughts.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Flat season 2022
1pt win Brad The Brief in Betfair Sprint Cup at 16/1 (General)
Writing something vigorously expressive about Baaeed’s potential vulnerabilities stepping up to 10 furlongs for the first time in the Juddmonte International at York may well have garnered a significant amount of (social media) reaction, but I’ve never been one for needlessly attracting attention.
Personally, I think William Haggas’ star will settle and stay the trip exceptionally well, almost inevitably prompting a slightly sickening feeling that he really ought to be bidding to sign off his illustrious career over 12 furlongs in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in October, rather than at Ascot on QIPCO British Champions Day.
That’s another argument altogether, of course, and when it comes to Wednesday’s straightforward Sussex Stakes winner making it a perfect 10-10 on the Knavesmire on August 17, the only note of caution I can offer up while maintaining a straight face is that he’s never raced on ground slower than good to soft.
The horse has 5lb and upwards in hand over his possible rivals and could be some way off his best and still win, but underfoot conditions are one of this sport’s greatest levellers and there’s no doubt Baaeed would be at a disadvantage - with some of the others, at least - if York were to be hit with a load of rain which turned the ground heavy.
The fact I had to ask Rory Delargy to dig through his famous annals for the last time York called the ground heavy on Juddmonte International day probably tells you all you need to know, but the great historian assures me not only has it never been described as such, only once has the going been deemed soft, which was when Triptych won the Ebor Festival’s G1 10-furlong feature in 1987.
So while it is true there was a strong suspicion that Baaeed may not have run against Palace Pier in last year's QEII had the ground been bottomless, and even in victory that day jockey Jim Crowley stated: “The (good to soft) ground was just a bit too slow for him…”, I’m far from convinced such references are entirely relevant in this case.
In addition, I can assure you betting on a deluge three weeks in advance, especially when most long-range forecasts are predicting another heatwave, is no fun whatsoever, so with vaguely interesting three-year-olds Nashwa and Luxembourg highly unlikely to take him on, I'll be leaving the Baaeed-bashing to others, who presumably have no real financial interest in the York race in the first place and just like hopping about on the spot for the sake of it.
I’ve already got plenty to go at for the big August meeting thanks to Voltigeur-bound Francesco Clemente (here we go!) in the St Leger, Flotus and Emaraaty Ana (is he really still 20/1 to go one better than last year?) in the Nunthorpe, and Enemy (apologies...) in the Ebor itself, so we'll jump ahead to the Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock on September 3 for the next port of call.
A grand total of 52 horses were entered on July 5 and there isn’t a scratching stage until the middle of August so there's plenty of guesswork involved and the layers go 6/1 the field at this point.
Alcohol Free didn’t let anyone down when third to Baaeed in her bid to go back-to-back in the Sussex but I'm not sure this is where she’ll be pitching up next given they've chopped and changed with trip all year, and she’s definitely one I’m happy to take on at the odds.
If there is a genuine rising star in the division then it is most likely to be Sense Of Duty, who beat Flotus over this course and distance in May before really announcing herself by battering her Chipchase rivals at Newcastle the following month.
She’s not been seen since but looks only fair value around the 8/1 mark anyway, whereas I feel BRAD THE BRIEF is being quite significantly underestimated at double that price (20/1 with Unibet but perfectly happy to recommend the general 16s).
Like Sense Of Duty, he's got winning form at the track and he’s also not been seen for a little while, having been kept away from the summer ground since beating subsequent King’s Stand fourth and Group Two (short-head) second Mooniesta by half a length at the Curragh on May 21 (replay below).
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That came on the back of a ready comeback success over the Sprint Cup track and trip on his seasonal return – the second time in his career he’s won at Haydock when fresh from a break, interestingly enough with this particular project in mind.
Brad The Brief had always shown talent during his time under Tom Dascombe but Hugo Palmer may have found that previously elusive spot of consistency and it simply looks to be the case he's a bigger and faster model as a five-year-old, having lost his way a little at four.
There’s only the Godolphin pair of Creative Force and Naval Crown with a higher official rating than his revised mark of 117 (they're both rated 118), and that includes recent Hackwood winner Minzaal who is no bigger than 12/1, so when combining that with the fact he relishes soft ground and is trained an hour down the road in Malpas, he's definitely the one I want to be getting on side.
Published at 1600 BST on 31/07/22
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