Matt Brocklebank takes an early look at the betting for the final Classic of the British Flat season - and has a 25/1 shot on the radar for the St Leger.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Flat season 2022
1pt win Francesco Clemente in Cazoo St Leger at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
No shortage of water yet to pass under the bridge prior to the Cazoo St Leger on September 10 so with one firm cutting Westover to a ridiculously skinny 6/4 for the Doncaster Classic on the back of winning a decidedly weak Irish Derby last weekend, I can’t resist exploring some of the other potential contenders.
Sticking with Westover for a moment, though, as while plenty of things can obviously go wrong in a three-year-old’s campaign, the opposite is also true and things can occasionally go slightly too well when it comes to backing a classy colt early on for the Leger.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility, for instance, that Westover underlines the fact he was unfortunate en route to finishing third in the Derby by beating Epsom winner Desert Crown in the King George later this month, in which case his trainer Ralph Beckett and the Juddmonte team will immediately start gearing him towards a shot at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Granted, horses can take in both races - Hurricane Lane was placed in Paris after shining in South Yorkshire just last season – but there are only three weeks between Group Ones and most trainers would prefer a slightly softer lead-up to an Arc than battling it out with a bunch of hard-knocking future stayers over a mile and three-quarters around Town Moor.
Which all leads to the question, if you’re backing Westover at 2s and shorter for the final Classic at this stage, would you rather he was beaten in the King George?
By how far, I wonder – not too far or he’ll be rising 5/1 for the Leger before you know it. Either way, I’m in no mood to board that ship and will happily cast the net wider in the hope of landing something rather more sizeable.
Two Royal Ascot winners sit next in the betting, namely Eldar Eldarov and Changingoftheguard.
The latter – who rather scraped home under a power-packed Ryan Moore in the King Edward VII last month, ultimately beating Grand Alliance a short head, is a typically tough son of Galileo but he lacks anything like an X-factor, while Roger Varian’s Queen’s Vase winner Eldar Eldarov is at least already proven at the Leger trip and looks open to plenty of further improvement as an unbeaten, thrice-raced son of Dubawi.
They were both entered in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (August 17) this Tuesday, as was Changingoftheguard’s much-vaunted stablemate Luxembourg, not seen since a running-on third behind Godolphin pair Coroebus and Native Trail in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket at the end of April.
Luxembourg clearly remains a fascinating late-season project for the Ballydoyle camp, but I’m not convinced this is the route he’ll be taking, and the eye is drawn to another Voltigeur entry, namely FRANCESCO CLEMENTE for the Gosdens.
The Clarehaven yard has won five Legers and five Voltigeurs over the years, Lucarno (2007) and Logician (2019) two that have completed the York-Doncaster double, and this Classic in particular definitely seems to suit their patient approach to conditioning three-year-olds (John Gosden has never won the 2000 Guineas, don’t forget).
Like Logician, Francesco Clemente was unraced as a two-year-old and he’s probably achieved slightly more than the grey son of Frankel had by this same stage in his Classic campaign. Logician went from maiden/novice wins at Newbury and Newmarket (July Course) in May and June to winning a Newbury handicap off a mark of 90 in July 2019, while this year's choicely-bred colt is already rated 99 after striking victories at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) and Sandown (replay below).
To expand on that breeding briefly, he's only ever raced at a mile and a quarter until now but could realistically thrive for a move up in distance. By Dubawi, he's out of Galileo mare Justlookdontouch, who is also the dam of Sir Michael Stoute's dual 1m4f Listed-winning Abingdon, who interestingly ran with credit over the St Leger course when fifth in the 2016 running of the Group Two Park Hill Stakes.
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The next move is the crunch move and it’s hoped all is well with Francesco Clemente having not been seen since beating subsequent Duke of Edinburgh runner-up Ajero handsomely on May 19 (the York engagement certainly suggests so and he's also entered in the Arc which hints at how highly he must be regarded).
Ajero's gallant second to Candleford wasn’t the only Royal Ascot form boost for the selection, whose debut win over Charlie Appleby’s Secret State has been seriously well advertised, the runner-up going on to win three races including last month's King George V Stakes from a mark of 93. Secret State himself is no bigger than 16s for the Leger at this point.
The Gosden horse, one of just two Voltigeur entries from the yard along with Israr, who is set to drop back to 10 furlongs for his next start after racing too freely over a mile and a half at the Royal meeting, looks well handicapped off 99, so it’ll be interesting if – like Logician – that’s the sort of route they take (strangely, the very same 1m4f 0-90 doesn’t appear on Newbury’s July 7 evening card, though he’s too highly-rated for that anyway), but something a little more lofty should be available prior to the Ebor Festival. Leger entries don't close until July 19.
We’ll leave the race-planning to those employed to do just that but getting this horse on side at 25/1 (20s also fair) should at least provide a bit of fun between now and the early-autumn - and that's before we even get onto who might be in the saddle.
Published at 1300 BST on 03/07/22
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