Second-round three-ball betting tips for the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale

The Open betting tips: Round two three-balls

1pt Chacarra and Smith to win their three-balls at 4/1 (BOYLE Sports)

1pt Rozner and Nagano to win their three-balls at 9/2 (bet365)

0.5pt Chacarra, Smith, Rozner and Nagano at 26/1 (bet365)

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Day one of the Open Championship produced a congested leaderboard and the sort of insignificant draw bias that should have levelled out by the end of day two.

There's no doubt that the first couple of hours represented the ideal time to be teeing off, unless you were an English player perhaps, although Dan Brown managed to overcome that handicap to share the lead with Sungjae Im before Jackson Suber took over.

By the time the afternoon starters were taking to the course it seemed that matching those two would be difficult and so it proved, but the breeze gradually died down and Suber managed to sneak past them after an eagle at the 17th, before the likes of Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young built themselves solid platforms.

Those late starters should have the better of things on Friday, when the forecast is similar. History says you need to be within five of the lead at this point but I'd say one-over is about the right mark, though this sport always allows room for outliers. Rory McIlroy, every inch one of those, is two-over, seven behind, heading into Friday's second round.

My selections ranged from an excellent 67 to Robert MacIntyre to a lifeless 72 from Hideki Matsuyama. The other three were good but not great from decent draws, with both Tyrrell Hatton (-1) and Jon Rahm (-1) suffering bad days on the greens. Hatton still managed to go bogey-free until the 18th and perhaps he can defy conditions to get in the mix come the weekend.

I am slightly wary of MacIntyre having the worst of the draw. The reason for that is he's out earlier in the afternoon and often, the wind dips later into the evening. We saw that on Thursday and a repeat could present a bit of a problem, though this is simply Open Championship golf and you're going to have to overcome an obstacle or two to win.

It was all told a frustrating day as 66/1 first-round leader pick, Bryson DeChambeau, missed four or five short putts in a round of 67 which was in the end two shy of the required number. He was at least three strokes worse with the putter than each of those who bettered his score, Suber having been more than four better in the end. Thomas Detry was also two shy of the required number after leading the way early on.

There was at least a small profit from the three-balls with our morning double obliging comfortably enough. The same double, Matthew Southgate and Victor Perez, has been cut as you'd expect and I'm just slightly wary of the fact Southgate putted the lights out. Of the two, Perez would be the stronger fancy but he's odds-on now and we'll let him go this time.

Of the marquee groups, I wondered about opposing Justin Rose given reports of a troublesome neck, but can't split Russell Henley. Similarly, there's a case for taking on Tommy Fleetwood after his frank assessment of his own game, and I don't mind taking on Jordan Spieth either, but Jon Rahm's putter continues to confound. Fleetwood might just click, anyway.

Instead, it's over to some of the lesser matches once more.

Chacarra to beat Wallace and Greyserman (0646 BST)

We'll start nice and early on Friday with EUGENIO CHACARRA fancied to gain revenge on Matt Wallace.

Chacarra began his Open debut with a solid, level-par 70 and was really starting to purr towards the end of it, making tap-in birdies at the 16th and 17th holes before a bogey at the tough 18th. Wallace, who went one lower, also played well but ultimately won this three-ball on the strength of his putting, dropping in a 30ft birdie at the penultimate hole before Chacarra had missed his eagle attempt.

I'd give the Spaniard the edge as I've never rated Wallace particularly highly under links conditions. Six Open appearances show nothing of note and while he's done OK when scoring has been low, firm conditions like these aren't in his favour. Perhaps they'll find him out in the morning.

Chacarra meanwhile won the KLM Open recently, played at a modern links where the wind blew hard throughout, and with wayward Max Greyserman hopefully in for another tough day, I like the youngest member of this trio at the odds.

Smith to beat Mitchell and Grehan (0708)

Hand on heart I contemplated siding with Stuart Grehan in the first round but the Amateur champion laboured to a round of 77 and he's a similar price despite that.

Taking him on is an easy decision now and while Keith Mitchell hit the ball best among this trio, CAMERON SMITH's Open experience and vastly superior short-game could be key as conditions get firmer.

Smith's short-game actually let him down on Thursday but he should strip fitter for that outing given he'd been absent since the US Open. I also wonder whether we might be in for a change of putter after a failed experiment following what's actually been a perfectly good run with his old faithful. His coach is also on-site so there are reasons to be optimistic that he can find something in his swing, too.

Regardless, Smith is far more adept at this version of the game than Mitchell, who is yet to make an Open cut. That could continue as his ropey short-game is likely to come under increasing pressure. He'll also desperately want to make the weekend for the first time, especially as his dad is an R&A member, and that brings with it the kind of pressure he's never welcomed.

Rozner to beat Surratt and Yonezawa (1559)

I'm a fan of ANTOINE ROZNER and it's no surprise to see him start nicely in an Open Championship, given his pedigree. This is a player who first came to prominence when losing a play-off by the sea in Mauritius, where he later went on to win, and who also has a victory in the strong winds of Qatar to his name.

Rozner's quality iron play has always served him well in the sort of breeze we're expecting come Friday afternoon and I'm hopeful it'll be enough for him to comfortably outscore Caleb Surratt again. The young American is a big-hitting, raw talent who relied on a red-hot putter to shoot two-over, three worse than his more rounded, experienced playing partner, and conditions are against him.

Ren Yonezawa also lacks experience and suffered a chastening first round in the Open, so at odds-against Rozner is backed to repeat the trick.

Nagano to beat Ham and Piera (1621)

I didn't pay much attention to this three-ball in Thursday's preview but I am surprised to see RYUTARO NAGANO at 6/4 to win it again. He's a solid, experienced pro from Japan whose last major start saw him finish 20th in the US Open, and at one-over he's in a decent spot to make the weekend of this one as well.

Ranked considerably higher than Jeong Woo Ham by DataGolf, Nagano has beaten his Korean playing partner the last four times they've played in the same tournament since the beginning of 2024, and his round-by-round record shows seven wins from 10. The price gap between them looks too narrow, and that's before considering that Nagano was six shots too good on Thursday.

The other player is a relative unknown quantity in Alejandro de Castro Piera, a youngster from Spain. He's about the 50th-best amateur in the world and is clearly promising given that he qualified for this and did OK in round one, but he's right around the cut line entering Friday and that adds enormous pressure given the potential significance of winning the Silver Medal.

Posted at 19:55 BST on 16/07/26

More Open content

• Open Championship preview
• Ben Coley's specials tips
• Round one three-ball picks
• First-round leader preview
• Matt Cooper's Open diary
• Who creates chances in majors?
• Player-by-player guide to the field
• Royal Birkdale talking points

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