quarter-finals preview - rodri, harry kane, lionel messi, kylian mbappe

World Cup betting tips: Quarter-finals predictions, best bets and preview


Remember fearing how a bloated, 48-team format would dilute the World Cup and ruin the Greatest Show on Earth?

Instead - poor refereeing and Trumpian interventions aside - we have witnessed one of the most thrilling tournaments in decades.

So far anyway.

Now, there are just eight teams left...


Farewell to co-hosts and minnows

poch

All three co-hosts are gone.

The USA flew through the group stage but simply never turned up against Belgium, a collapse head coach Mauricio Pochettino pointed afterwards to a lack of competitive fixtures in the build-up as part of the explanation.

Canada's exit to Morocco surprised no one. Mexico's was the most thrilling: eliminated by England in a bruising, altitude-aided battle at the Azteca that will be remembered as one of the games of the tournament.

Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha celebrates their goalless draw with Spain
Goalkeeper Vozinha and his Cape Verde team won everyone's hearts with their performances

The minnows, meanwhile, have been the heartbeat of the World Cup.

In their first ever appearances, tiny island nation Cape Verde began with a shock draw against Spain, backed it up by drawing with Uruguay and remarkably qualified for the knockouts by also securing a point against Saudi Arabia.

They went out in a blaze of glory, coming within a whisker of taking holders Argentina to penalties, leaving the tournament unbeaten in 90 minutes.


Golden Boot race for the ages

Who wins the World Cup 2026 Golden Boot?
Who wins the World Cup 2026 Golden Boot?

Underneath all of it, the individual duel for the Golden Boot has been a relentless subplot.

Lionel Messi leads the way on eight goals after a typically dramatic late intervention to help save his team against Egypt - a strike that also extended his narrow advantage over Kylian Mbappe as the outright top scorer in men's World Cup history, having both moved past Miroslav Klose's long-standing record earlier in the tournament.

Right behind him, level with Erling Haaland on seven, sits Mbappe, who made history of his own on matchday one by overtaking Olivier Giroud as France's all-time record goalscorer.

Haaland is spearheading Norway's first World Cup appearance since 1998 in incredible fashion, with his performance a procession of braces and late winners. Then there is Harry Kane, remarkably almost an afterthought in this battle.

The England captain trails on six, having already overtaken Gary Lineker as England's all-time leading World Cup scorer along the way.

The winner will very likely be decided by whoever's team goes furthest.


France's toughest test yet

Kylian Mbappe shone against Senegal
Kylian Mbappe has been unstoppable

On to the quarter-finals then, and France head into their tie with Morocco having discovered, for the first time all tournament, what it feels like to be frustrated.

Weak refereeing allowed Paraguay to use the dark arts to an extreme degree, but away from those tactics there was a blueprint to follow.

They sat deep and gave up almost nothing, turning the round-of-16 tie into of the most uncomfortable 90 minutes Didier Deschamps' side have faced in his 12-year tenure.

Morocco represent a sharper version of that same problem, equally capable of shutting the game down, but with real teeth on the counter, especially through superstar captain Achraf Hakimi down the right.

There's history here too: France ended Morocco's remarkable run in the 2022 semi-final, and with so many of Morocco's squad born and raised in France, this has the feel of a genuine derby match.

And those are rarely free-flowing.

This is set up to be tight, low-scoring and tense rather than another exhibition of French firepower.


Spain's serene run meets reborn Belgium

Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal has not quite hit top gear

Having navigated a tough round-of-16 tie with Portugal, Spain's route is back to as they would have expected.

It is hard to envisage them being upset at this stage. They haven't conceded a single goal all tournament, carrying their European Championship-winning form seamlessly into North America.

Belgium arrive having already used their get-out-of-jail-free card. Down and out after 86 minutes against Senegal in the round of 32 they were saved by an astonishing turnaround few saw coming, before a controversial last-gasp penalty in extra time sent them through.

To Rudi Garcia's credit, what followed has been a genuine transformation: dropping Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku for a more balanced, defensively secure shape built around captain Youri Tielemans helped them thrash the USA 4-1.

Spain, for their part, are still waiting for Lamine Yamal's partner in crime Nico Williams to hit full fitness. The pair gave them a different attacking dimension at the Euros and there's a sense their usual cutting edge has been missing without them.

Still, the gap in class points firmly toward Spain.

Whether it's as straightforward as the bookmakers expect is another question entirely.


England ride the wave, Norway have trump card

Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham celebrate against Mexico
Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham celebrate against Mexico

Few nights at this World Cup have matched England's win over Mexico at the Azteca - a battling, backs-to-the-wall performance in front of over 80,000 partisan fans at altitude, playing almost 50 minutes with 10 men.

It capped a pattern that's defined England's tournament: results that look even better in hindsight than they perhaps did in the moment.

Thomas Tuchel's use of the extra tactical window offered by in-game hydration breaks have been vital so far too, most strikingly in the comeback win over DR Congo and the second half against Mexico where the co-hosts were completely snuffed out despite their man advantage.

Tuchel said from the outset that surviving the group stage was step one, and that the real England would show up when it really mattered.

It makes Norway, a side who like games open and end-to-end, about as good a stylistic match-up as the Three Lions could ask for.

Erling Haaland celebrates against Iraq
Erling Haaland celebrates his goal against Iraq

Except Norway bring Haaland, which changes the calculation.

In the form of his life, the Manchester City striker represents the single biggest threat England have faced all tournament and the sternest examination yet of Tuchel's tactical acumen.

Norway, meanwhile, have plenty to worry about themselves.

Never one to be outdone, Jude Bellingham has been the emotional centre of England's tournament from the very first game, picking up Player of the Match honours in three of their five fixtures. The exceptions have seen Harry Kane take the award.

Jude Bellingham

Their fingerprints are on virtually everything England do well.

Good luck stopping both.


Argentina keep surviving but Swiss will smell blood

Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi continues to carry Argentina on his back

No side has walked a tighter tightrope than Argentina.

Pegged back twice by Cape Verde, then two goals down deep into the round of 16 against Egypt before Messi inspired a late rescue act - with some help from controversial refereeing decisions - the champions have twice found a way through by the finest of margins.

Strip Messi's influence out of that team, though, and what's left looks distinctly ordinary: overly reliant on one man, and vulnerable to sides that stay compact and organised.

Switzerland fit that description almost perfectly. Their goalless, shootout win over Colombia wasn't spectacular, but it showcased exactly the kind of defensive discipline that has troubled Argentina all tournament.

And with Johan Manzambi, the Swiss' breakout performer, pushing to be fit after missing that game through injury, Switzerland have the tools to turn defensive solidity into real counter-attacking threat.

Bookmakers appear to have significantly underestimated them. At the very least the Swiss look the team most likely to cause a shock in the last eight.


More World Cup content from Sporting Life

Outright previews

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