Football betting tips: World Cup
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (bet365)
1.5pts Lucas Digne 2+ fouls at 5/4 (William Hill)
0.5pt Brahim Diaz 1+ assist at 15/2 (Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes)
France are the 2/1 favourites to win the World Cup and with good reason.
They have been faultless this summer, winning all five of their games, scoring multiple goals in four and keeping clean sheets in three.
A win against Morocco on Thursday will book them a spot in the semi-final against either Spain or Belgium and it really does feel like it’s Les Bleus' tournament to lose.
Their attacking quartet of Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola have been, as expected, grabbing the headlines.
France top the charts for goals scored per match (2.8). At the time of writing, Mbappe is joint-first in the race for the Golden Boot (7) and Olise tops the assist charts (5).
And although Didier Deschamps has taken the handbrake off a little, he’s kept the stoic defensive foundations intact. France have conceded the third-fewest goals at the tournament (0.4 per 90).
So, at 10/11 backing UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks a sensible way in.
This bet has clicked in Morocco’s games with the Netherlands, Scotland and Brazil where they’ve scored a combined total of three goals and conceded twice. For context, they’ve scored seven in two games against Haiti and Canada, conceding twice.
Since the group stage, France have won both their knockout games to-nil, punishing the poor defence of Sweden but struggling through the round of 16 against Paraguay.
They won 1-0 in that contest. It was their least convincing performance in terms of the scoreline but, in my opinion, their most impressive.
The South Americans set up in a nasty low block and barely gave anything away. Excluding the penalty, France only managed an expected goals (xG) of 0.66 and that goal from the spot was their only attempt with an xG value greater than 0.30.
And yet, Deschamps' side found a way to win, as all great teams do.
That said, Paraguay have provided Morocco with the blue print to get a result in this quarter-final clash.
The North African side are tough to beat but have more quality in attack, not least down the right side where BRAHIM DIAZ and Achraf Hakimi have formed a strong partnership.
Between them, they have had a hand in 70% of Morocco’s goals this summer. Hakimi scored one and set up two and Diaz has four assists, a tally only Olise can top at the tournament.
Half of Diaz’s assists came against Canada but he also set up Morocco’s goal against Scotland and the opener in their 1-1 draw with Brazil.
At 15/2 with Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes, his price for 1+ ASSIST appeals. Although it’s worth noting Betway has this angle priced at 10/1, if you can get on with that firm.
If the price was purely based on his international assists per 90 average (0.23), 7/2 would be worth taking here.
Morocco’s right hand side also draws plenty of fouls, with Hakimi and Diaz combining to get an average of 4.6 a game.
In five matches, opposition left-backs have averaged 1.6 fouls and two picked up cards. Left midfielders and left-sided central midfielders have both averaged 1.8 fouls a game.
So, the foul lines of Adrien Rabiot, Barcola and LUCAS DIGNE are worth a look here.
At 5/4 TO COMMIT 2+, it’s the Aston Villa man's price which stands out.
Digne’s committed three fouls in as many appearances this summer, but has been sharing his minutes with Theo Hernandez.
I suspect Deschamps will go with Digne, the more conservative choice, but it’ll be worth checking the line-ups on Thursday.
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (07/07/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
Outright previews
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