World Cup 2022 quarter-final: Key battles in focus

By Alex Keble

Football

Mon December 12, 2022 · 3y ago

Alex Keble shines his tactical spotlight on four intriguing match-ups from across the World Cup's quarter-final fixtures.

Guerrero-Hakimi battle to be decisive

Morocco v Portugal
ITV: Saturday, 15:00 GMT

This match will be the most straightforward from a tactical perspective. Morocco are a deep-lying team with a very strong defensive record built on a compact 4-4-2 that denies teams space in the final third – before counter-attacking via their world-class full-backs.

Largely because of Hakim Ziyech’s star power most of these counters are funnelled down the right, and in fact no nation builds down this side more often than Morocco (43% of attacks). The key battle is on that side, then, which happens to be where Portugal can be most effective when up against a narrow blockade.

Cristiano Ronaldo at the World Cup for Portugal

Cristiano Ronaldo has been a hot topic at the World Cup

All of the focus in the build-up will be on whether Cristiano Ronaldo returns to the team ahead of hat-trick scoring Goncalo Ramos, but since both are poachers they will have limited options on Saturday – unless Portugal can prise Morocco open.

For that to happen, their diagonal switches are crucial to pull Morocco from side to side until gaps appear. Portugal top the charts for switches (34) at Qatar 2022 and have completed the joint second most long balls (230), with Bruno Fernandes by a distance the most frequent switcher of play (12).

His ability to get the ball from the right out to the left - where left-back Raphael Guerreiro has been excellent so far, and Bernardo Silva will join to pick the lock – could be vital.

However, the urge to get Guerreiro into dangerous positions could leave Portugal open to being countered down that flank by Ziyech and Ashraf Hakimi.

Kane-focused transitions can hurt French midfield

England v France
ITV: Saturday, 19:00 GMT

Neither England nor France have really been tested so far, and what both nations will discover is that the latter stages of the tournament feel nothing like the earlier rounds, when possession dominance was guaranteed.

From here on in, it is all about what they do in the transitional moments. England appear better placed to capitalise.

Harry Kane dropping into the number ten space was a crucial component of their win over Senegal, and he should be able to receive progressive passes here on Saturday thanks to the gap between Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni.

They have not looked comfortable, often allowing too many balls between them, and England will be able to break through here. What’s more, Luke Shaw has been in good form and he can attack the weakest part of the France defence, their right-back Joules Kounde.

France’s major threat is Kylian Mbappe but England can neutralise him with a back three, pitting Kyle Walker’s pace against Mbappe with Kieran Trippier there for additional support. This would also release Shaw higher as a wing-back while still allowing Kane to lead the counter-attacks with Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka either side.

No matter the formation Gareth Southgate chooses, as long as his team are assertive they can beat a flat-footed and conservative France side that will be blown away by the first nation to truly take the game to them.

Blunt Croatia no match for Brazilians

Croatia v Brazil
BBC: Friday, 15:00 GMT

Croatia haven’t performed well enough to be in the last eight in Qatar, scraping past Japan on penalties and winning just one of their four games – against a disappointing Canada.

Their biggest issue has been chance creation and without a strong centre forward they are forced into the same predictable patterns over and over again: passing the ball out wide for a wild swing into the box.

They average 16.7 shot-creating actions per match, which is nearer the bottom than the top and below the likes of Iran, Cameroon, and Tunisia, yet they have hit 95 crosses across the tournament, which is more than any other nation.

That impressive midfield three is effectively isolated, forced into sideways possession and shuffling the ball out for Ivan Perisic to cross unsuccessfully. There is little chance this will worry a cagey Brazil team, who do not often let their full-backs get forward.

Alex Keble sees no hope for Luka Modric and Croatia

At the other end, Croatia’s weak spot is Dejan Lovren on the right side of central defence, and Tite should be able to target him quite easily.

Vinicius Junior, Neymar, and Richarlison have been interacting effectively in the left-centre area, precisely where Lovren operates. When Croatia are pushed back, Vinicius’s runs can poke holes in a defence that isn’t as strong as it was four years ago.

Messi reliance favours Van Gaal tweaks

Netherlands v Argentina
BBC: Friday, 19:00 GMT

This one is unlikely to be a high-scoring match but it should be a fascinating tactical battle between two managers with opposing ideologies.

Throughout this tournament Argentina have looked to press high up the pitch in a 4-4-2, and in fact have scored more goals following defensive actions (five) than any other nation, while the Netherlands look to drop back into a solid 3-4-1-2, playing patient possession football to draw the opponent forward.

Consequently Argentina may fall into Louis van Gaal’s traps, especially given that he is adept at making subtle tactical tweaks to exploit vulnerabilities. As Argentina push onto the Dutch back three they ought to be able to clip longer passes out to wing-backs Daley Blind and Denzel Dumfries, who can drop between the Argentina lines due to the clash of formations.

These two assisted each other for goals against high-pressing USA and can be backed to repeat the trick.

Lionel Messi and Argentina are under pressure on Saturday

Lionel Messi could be snuffed out by the Dutch tactics

The second Van Gaal tweak will be concerning Lionel Messi, whose importance to Argentina is growing with Angel di Maria and Paulo Dybala out of form; Julio Alvarez isn’t effective enough outside the penalty area, leaving Messi to do it all on his own in the right half-space.

The Netherlands manager will devise a plan for this, namely ensuring Nathan Ake and Blind can double up on him. If Messi is neutralised, then Van Gaal’s wing-backs can pour forward to interact with Cody Gakpo and put the Netherlands through.