Football betting tips: World Cup
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 20/21 (General)
1pt Under 1.5 goals at 14/5 (Betway)
0.5pt No Goalscorer at 12/1 (General)
1pt Lewis Ferguson to be shown a card at 10/3 (bet365)
In the aftermath of Scotland's 1-0 defeat by Morocco there were many who claimed Steve Clarke ought to have been more bold. Picked a more attacking line-up. Taken more risks.
Scotland conceded after 70 seconds when an offside-trap misjudgment by Grant Hanley was ruthlessly punished by Ismael Saibari, a goal that understandably threw them off and led to a disjointed first-half performance.
As the match wore on they grew into the contest and were very unlucky not to be awarded at least one, if not two penalties.
Clarke was keen both in the build-up and post-match to talk up the might of Morocco, how the 2022 semi-finalists and sixth-ranked team in the world should be considered among the favourites for the tournament, perhaps keen to deflect from the notion that before a ball was kicked at this World Cup he would have taken a win over Haiti followed by two narrow defeats; something he could never say out loud.
Would another 1-0 loss to Brazil be enough to book a place in the knockout stage for the very first time? The bookies seem to think so.
Scotland are heavily odds-on to reach the round of 32, and 1-0 or 2-0 wins for Brazil are considered the most likely scorelines in Miami on Wednesday.
For three points to guarantee a spot as one of the best eight third-placed teams, with goal difference irrelevant, there must be four groups where third place has a maximum of two points.
Finish with a respectable goal difference and it would take some kind of minor miracle to be knocked out.
For that reason do not expect Clarke to change approach, with perhaps Ben Gannon-Doak replacing the doubtful Kieran Tierney the only change that could be considered positive, with the likes of Lawrence Shankland thrown on towards the end for fresh energy or to find a goal if needed.
This is not conservatism to be criticised, it is a tactic that represents Scotland's best chance of success. While they possess several strong, combative midfield players, they lack both pace and quality.
Everything adds up to making UNDER 2.5 GOALS a sensible selection at 20/21.
While it may be tempting to combine that with a Brazil win for 23/10, Carlo Ancelotti's side have not impressed so far, labouring to a draw with Morocco and leaving plenty of room for criticism despite a 3-0 victory over Haiti.
They had just eight shots, retreating in the second half to protect their advantage, outshot 7-2 by minnows ranked 87th in the world.
Instead of backing the Selecao, my preference is to go for lower lines and back both UNDER 1.5 GOALS at 14/5 and NO GOALSCORER at 12/1.
There is a possibility Brazil click in this contest, making use of the better balance found on matchday two through two-goal Matheus Cunha's selection up front.
But for a team who are relying on individual brilliance, the loss of Raphinha to injury is a huge blow, and one that is worth us opposing in some way.
Finally LEWIS FERGUSON is again backed TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 10/3.
The Scotland midfielder was outstanding against Morocco, making the most of a hands-off referee by piling into opponents at any given opportunity, completing a remarkable seven tackles (several of them questionable) committing two fouls, and winning three himself.
Ferguson was shown three yellow cards (0.6 cards per 90) and averaged three fouls per 90 in five World Cup qualifiers and quite frankly with any other official in charge the Bologna man would have gone in the book in Boston.
Odds correct 13:45 BST (23/06/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
Group previews
- Group A: Mexico; South Africa; South Korea; Czechia
- Group B: Canada; Bosnia; Qatar; Switzerland
- Group C: Brazil; Morocco; Haiti; Scotland
- Group D: USA; Paraguay; Australia; Turkiye
- Group E: Germany; Curacao; Ivory Coast; Ecuador
- Group F: Netherlands; Japan; Sweden; Tunisia
- Group G: Belgium; Egypt; Iran; New Zealand
- Group H: Spain; Cape Verde; Saudi Arabia; Uruguay
- Group I: France; Senegal; Iraq; Norway
- Group J: Argentina; Algeria; Austria; Jordan
- Group K: Portugal; DR Congo; Uzbekistan; Colombia
- Group L: England; Croatia; Ghana; Panama
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