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Jake Osgathorpe's Euro 2024 tips and Super 6 predictions for matchday one
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
No recommended bets
Portugal vs Czechia
- Tuesday 18th June, 20:00 - BBC One
- Home 1/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 5/1
Portugal should get the win here, but it won't be too routine. Czechia are a very capable side, especially defensively, and are more than capable of frustrating the 2016 Euro champs for a bit at least.
Given the strength of Roberto Martinez's bench, and his in-game tactical capabilities, DRAW/PORTUGAL in the HT/FT market made some appeal at 7/2, but I'm not making that an official play.
Score prediction: Portugal 2-1 Czechia (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Euro 2024 Super 6 predictions for round 1
- Serbia 1-3 England
- Romania 1-2 Ukraine
- Belgium 2-0 Slovakia
- Austria 1-1 France
- Turkey 1-0 Georgia
- Portugal 2-1 Czechia
ALREADY ADVISED:
1.5pts Scotland goalkeeper 4+ saves vs Germany (20:00) at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Spain 15+ total shots vs Croatia (17:00) at 21/20 (William Hill)
2pts Under 2.5 Goals in Italy vs Albania (20:00) at 31/40 (Unibet)
1pt Virgil van Dijk to score anytime in Poland vs Netherlands (14:00) at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to score anytime in Slovenia vs Denmark (17:00) at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Both teams to score in Serbia vs England (20:00) at 11/10 (Betfred)
1pt Artem Dovbyk to score anytime in Romania vs Ukraine (14:00) at 2/1 (Unibet)
1pt Under 2.5 goals in Austria vs France (20:00) at 5/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to be carded in Turkey vs Georgia (17:00) at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
The tournament is finally here! You've (hopefully) read all the outrights and the Sporting Life betting guide, now attentions turn to the matches, the individual betting heats. This column will be the same as my Premier League one, where I give my best bets from the round of fixtures as well as providing a verdict and predictions on all Super 6 matches - you can find them at the bottom of the article.
While excitement and anticipation are high, the trends suggest we will see few goals in the opening round of fixtures. Since Euro 2000, the opening round of group games (2.27) has been the third lowest scoring round of the tournament, with only the Semi final (2.08) and Final (1.67) seeing fewer goals per game.
- Jake Osgathorpe finished the 2023-24 club football season +69.7pts in profit
Only 39% of round one group games have seen Over 2.5 Goals, with round two increasing to 45% and round three at 50%. It has to be said though that 2020 did see an increase in total goals across the board, setting new records, so it will be interesting to see if that level of scoring continues or if we revert to the historic norm.
Anyway, for the most part I have swerved goal lines in terms of betting selections in this column due to that uncertainty, but I have plenty of best bets to kick us off...
Germany vs Scotland
- Friday 14th June, 20:00 - ITV1
- Home 1/4 | Draw 9/5 | Away 19/2
Hosts Germany are heavy odds-on to win this opener, but anyone looking to oppose them should be wary. Across Euros and World Cups since 2006, there have been five host nations who have been heavy odds-on in the tournament curtain raiser and all of them won.
Julian Nagelsmann's side have improved over the last few international breaks, and I have my doubts around Scotland, meaning I was tempted by a German win and Under 3.5 goals at even money, but given the way I see this game playing out, taking 4+ SCOTLAND GOALKEEPER SAVES at 5/6 appeals more.
Steve Clarke's side will play to frustrate in an attempt to hang in the game and make things nervy, meaning we should witness wave after wave of pressure from the hosts, with plenty of shots. The Germans have forced 4+ saves in all of their last four - including against France and the Netherlands - so Angus Gunn should expect a busy evening.
Score prediction: Germany 2-0 Scotland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Hungary vs Switzerland
- Saturday 14th June, 14:00 - ITV1
- Home 9/4 | Draw 11/5 | Away 6/5
Anyone who has read my outright preview, or group preview, will know that I am sweet on the Swiss at Euro 2024, but the draw looks a real runner in a game between two closely matched sides. I wouldn't put anyone off backing the DRAW at a decent price, but I wanted to back Under 2.5 Goals, though that price isn't quite palatable at 4/6.
Score prediction: Hungary 1-1 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Spain vs Croatia
- Saturday 14th June, 17:00 - ITV1
- Home 10/11 | Draw 23/10 | Away 3/1
The first game in the 'group of death' sees Spain take on Croatia, a repeat of the goalless Nations League final that was won on penalties by La Furia Roja. This should be fun then.
We can expect this game to play out exactly the same way - cagily. This being the first group game makes things more tense, with sides not wanting to take unnecessary risks. Under 2.5 goals did appeal (8/11) but I prefer SPAIN 15+ TOTAL SHOTS.
The Spaniards have averaged 17.7 shots per game across Luis de la Fuente 14 games in charge, hitting the required line in nine of those outings, including against Croatia, Italy and Brazil - three sides ranked inside the world's top 10.
I fully expect the Croats to sit deep and soak pressure, meaning Spain should dominate the ball and (hopefully) pull the trigger plenty of times.
Score prediction: Spain 1-0 Croatia (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Italy vs Albania
- Saturday 14th June, 20:00 - BBC One
- Home 4/11 | Draw 7/2 | Away 15/2
This contest sees an UNDER 2.5 GOALS price I'm happy to back at 31/40 with Betway.
Defending European champions Italy, while rightly favourites to win the match, just don't have the attacking firepower at their disposal like the other bigger nations. I envisage they will find it difficult to breakdown a stubborn Albania side who's qualifying success was built on solid foundations.
The Group B underdogs shipped just 0.76 xGA per game en route to Germany, highlighting their defensive strength, but their attacking process was simply shocking - they ranked dead last of all 24 teams to qualify for the tournament in terms of xGF per game (0.88) - meaning they will likely struggle to test Italy's backline.
Score prediction: Italy 1-0 Albania (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Poland vs Netherlands
- Sunday 16th June, 14:00 - BBC One
- Home 21/4 | Draw 3/1 | Away 1/2
Poland are a mess as they head to the Euros. They were fortunate to make it, and have since been hit by key injuries, meaning their chances of being relevant in Germany are slim. It's the opposite for the Netherlands, who could make a deep run.
They should win here, but the angle of attack is absolutely VIRGIL VAN DIJK TO SCORE ANYTIME. It has been well documented that big Virg is expected to be the Netherlands penalty taker at the Euros, a huge plus for this bet, but Poland's set-piece woes are another reason to be really excited.
Tom Carnduff highlighted their dead-ball weakness in his Notebook column a week or so ago, with 15 of the Poles last 34 shots faced coming from a set-piece, and two of their last three goals conceded.
Those came against poor sides too (Moldova and the Faroe Islands) so against a good team who will likely have more opportunity to get the ball in the box via a set-piece, it's definitely worth chancing the Liverpool defender - who has scored in his last two outings for his nation.
Score prediction: Poland 0-2 Netherlands (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Slovenia vs Denmark
- Sunday 16th June, 17:00 - ITV1
- Home 19/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 8/11
Denmark, Euro 2020 semi-finalists, have kept the majority of their squad together for one more tilt at a major tournament. They should get the better of Slovenia, and while I wasn't initially going to have a bet in this one, the 15/2 price of PIERRE-EMILE HOJBJERG TO SCORE ANYTIME has drawn me in.
He has scored in both of his last two friendly appearances for Denmark, netting in five in his last 14 internationals, and I think the reason for that is that he gets to play as more of a box-to-box midfielder.
The Danes play with a back five, with Morten Hjulmand and Hojbjerg playing behind Christian Eriksen, but Hjumland is quite clearly the holding player, freeing up the Spurs man to get forward.
His recent goal against Norway came from him crashing in at the edge of the box, while he does provide a threat from set-pieces too, netting against Sweden via that route, but if he continues to play in the box-to-box manner, he should get a couple of chances and is worth a small punt at the prices.
Score prediction: Slovenia 0-2 Denmark (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Serbia vs England
- Sunday 16th June, 20:00 - BBC One
- Home 6/1 | Draw 10/3 | Away 4/9
As England fans, we were all aware that our defence is the weak point of our team, but it's startling that even on paper it now looks even more vulnerable.
No Harry Maguire for the tournament and likely no Luke Shaw for this game means there are some serious questions to be answered. Serbia offer a serious attacking threat, and they should fancy their chances of bloodying the nose of the pre-tournament favourites, making BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE a really appealing price at odds-against.
They can't defend, but they can score. Just look back to their World Cup efforts where they went out in a blaze of glory at the group stage, scoring five and conceding eight.
We should expect more of the same here from a top heavy team boasting the likes of Aleksandar Mitrović, Dušan Vlahović, Dušan Tadić, Sergej Milinković-Savić and Filip Kostić in their ranks.
They will test England's shaky backline, but will likely be out-scored due to their severe deficiencies at the back.
Score prediction: Serbia 1-3 England (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Romania vs Ukraine
- Monday 17th June, 14:00 - BBC One
- Home 14/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 19/20
Group E looks to be pretty tight on paper, outside of Belgium, but I feel as though Ukraine will prove to be the second best side. Their price to win this opener is appealing, but I can't turn down the 2/1 available on ARTEM DOVBYK TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The Girona striker is coming off a red-hot campaign, winning the Pachichi (top scorer) gong in La Liga. He closed out the season in scintillating fashion, netting 10 times in his final nine club outings, and has since found the net in both Ukraine's friendlies, so is razor sharp.
Now, despite all of this - believe it or not - he isn't certain to start. But that's ok, as if he is on the bench our stake is refunded. If he starts, Romania's defensive fragility should provide Ukraine and Dovbyk with plenty of chances.
Score prediction: Romania 1-2 Ukraine (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Belgium vs Slovakia
- Monday 17th June, 17:00 - ITV1
- Home 4/9 | Draw 10/3 | Away 11/2
I strongly fancy Belgium to win Group E, and fully expect them to beat Slovakia in the opener. There is little value to me though in this game, and while Romelu Lukaku to score anytime was on my wish list, the even money available is a tad too short.
Score prediction: Belgium 2-0 Slovakia (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Austria vs France
- Monday 17th June, 20:00 - ITV1
- Home 5/1 | Draw 10/3 | Away 1/2
This is likely to be closer than many people think - or, at least I hope so. I'm hot on Austria this tournament, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get something from this game against France.
But, the bet that stands out is UNDER 2.5 GOALS. It's a whopping 5/4, and given the way I expect Ralf Rangnick's side to set up - high-pressing, tenacious and difficult to beat - it's easy to see this game having far less goalmouth action than many might believe.
Before things clicked for Austria, they played France in the Nations League with both games going under 2.5. Recent games with Italy, Germany and Belgium have also gone under the required line.
Score prediction: Austria 1-1 France (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Turkey vs Georgia
- Tuesday 18th June, 17:00 - BBC One
- Home 7/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 4/1
This is an interesting game, and while I think Turkey will edge to a win, I won't be going anywhere near them at the prices. We can expect this to be a tight and hard fought game which could turn scrappy, meaning cards will likely be on the agenda, and at the prices, Georgia's talisman KHVICHA KVARATSKHELIA TO BE CARDED makes plenty of appeal.
If Georgia are to do anything at the Euros it will likely be through 'Kvaradona' - that is actually what people shorten his name to, I haven't made it up, promise. That dependence and pressure means he will be playing on the edge even more than usual, going full tilt into everything as he tries to will his nation into a positive result.
He has been a bit of a card magnet across Serie A and Euro qualifying too, picking up nearly as many yellows (11) as he's scored goals (15). KK - another nickname of his, make sure you are keeping up - is a man heavily involved in matches, competing for a high number of duels which only increases his likelihood of getting a card.
Score prediction: Turkey 1-0 Georgia (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1420 BST (13/06/24)
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