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Euro 2024 group betting tips, predictions, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
0.5pt Switzerland to win Group A at 6/1 (Unibet)
2pts Spain to win Group B at evens (Sky Bet)
1.5pts England/Denmark dual forecast in Group C at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts Poland to finish bottom of Group D at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Ukraine to finish in top 2 of Group E at 13/10 (Boylesports)
1pt Portugal winner and Georgia to finish bottom of Group F at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Group Accumulator at 19/2 (BetVictor)
Switzerland, Denmark, Austria, Ukraine and Czechia all to qualify, Albania to finish bottom
The Euros are upon us, and we are set to be treated to a month of high quality football and plenty of drama. This time it also brings you a month of this column, which will likely be low quality and drama-less.
I jest of course, about the drama anyway. But on a serious note, for new readers of an article with my face plastered on the hero image, this article is an extension of my Premier League column, and throughout Euro 2024 I will give predictions and a verdict for every game while providing best bets where there is excellent value.
- Jake Osgathorpe finished the 2023-24 club football season +69.7pts in profit
This first edition focuses on the pre-tournament Group Betting, and I've selected one best bet for each group. While I was at it, I've also built an accumulator that could actually win. It should go close, hopefully. That full acca and 'some' reasoning can be found in the bottom section of this article, with us beginning with a look at the group featuring Scotland...
Group A
- Germany (4/11), Switzerland (5/1), Hungary (8/1), Scotland (9/1) - To win the group odds (via Sky Bet)
I have major doubts about tournament hosts Germany. They have an excellent coach in charge in Julian Nagelsmann, but he is a coach that needs time on the training ground with his players to get his system up and running. In international football you just don't have that time.
Their record against non-elite sides since the World Cup is a big concern ahead of the Euros, winless in eight such matches. That's because they don't get the same space to operate against those teams compared to the better sides - of which they have beaten France twice and the Netherlands. Group A therefore looks a banana skin, with three awkward underdog-like sides facing the Germans.
I'm therefore happy to take a chance and oppose the hosts, with it being SWITZERLAND who get my vote TO WIN GROUP A at a big price of 6/1.
The Swiss get the nod as in my mind they are a more well-rounded team than the other two sides. As discussed in my outright preview, the Swiss were a huge eye-catcher on the data in qualifying, and are a team full of tournament experience.
The schedule potentially works in their favour too, facing Germany last in what could be a shoot-out for top spot. It is worth noting that the winner of Group A likely avoids France and England until the final, while the runner-up will likely have to play both of them on their way to glory.
Group B
- Spain (10/11), Italy (7/4), Croatia (4/1), Albania (28/1) - To win the group odds (via Sky Bet)
Every tournament seemingly has one, and at Euro 2024, Group B is the cliched 'group of death'. It features three sides ranked inside the top 10 in FIFA's World Rankings, and, Albania (66th). Poor Albania. The minnows are a best price of 2/5 to finish bottom.
Reigning champions Italy are in transition currently. They have a new manager in charge, Luciano Spalletti taking over from Roberto Mancini, while defensive stalwarts Leonardo Bonucci and Gergio Chiellini are no longer available. Their attacking options are questionable too, meaning Euro 2024 could be a short one for the current holders - six of the last seven defending champions failed to get past the first knockout round (thanks to Mark O'Haire for the assist on that stat).
Croatia are an ageing team, and while they have finished second and third in the last three World Cup's, they are yet to crack the Round of 16 at the Euros. I have huge questions around them as well, and in my mind, SPAIN are the class of this group and should be backed TO WIN GROUP B at 10/11.
The Spaniards have a nice blend of youth and experience in their ranks, were arguably the best side in the competition four years ago and were the winners of the latest Nations League finals. While that may mean little to many, and me to be honest, the fact they beat Italy and Croatia (on pens) en route to the trophy is the clincher for this bet.
Group C
- England (1/3), Denmark (5/1), Serbia (6/1), Slovenia (16/1) - To win the group odds (via Sky Bet)
England should breeze through this group. Not only are the by far the better side, but the second and third ranked sides, Denmark and Serbia, have huge issues defensively that could lead to the Three Lions making light work of the pair.
While Slovenia did finish second to Denmark in qualifying on head-to-head record alone, they did post far inferior underlying numbers to the Danes, losing the xG battle heavily on both occasions (SLO 0.38 - 1.68 DEN and DEN 2.04 - 0.08 SLO). They could spring a surprise and finish above Serbia, but for my money the top two are likely to be England and Denmark.
The 6/5 about ENGLAND AND DENMARK in the DUAL FORECAST market appeals. By backing it this way instead of straight forecast we are at least covered if England don't win the group.
The Danes had a dismal World Cup but are ready to bounce back, and have fresh impetus now they have a top striker to call upon in Rasmus Hojlund, who netted seven times in eight qualifiers. Opening up their tournament against Slovenia helps this bet too, as hopefully they get three on the board and England beat Serbia to put the ball right in Denmark's court from the off.
Group D
- France (4/7), Netherlands (11/4), Austria (7/1), Poland (11/1) - To win the group odds (via Sky Bet)
This group could be more competitive than people think. The pre-tournament second favourites France are strongly fancied to finish top of this group, and rightly so, but I won't be backing them at the prices.
That's because the Netherlands went toe-to-toe with France in qualifying, not only in their head-to-head's but also on the underlying data. In France the xG totals were FRA 1.54 - 1.53 NED, and it was as tight in the Netherlands (0.68 - 0.77). It wouldn't be a surprise if those two played out a tight draw in the group stage.
Austria are a team I am hot on, that many people may be overlooking. They have a nicely balanced XI, and are more than the sum of their parts, but more importantly, they are just awkward to play against. The same cannot be said for POLAND, who I rate as a cracking bet TO FINISH BOTTOM OF GROUP D.
The Poles were in the third easiest qualifying group but could only scrape into the play-off rounds, narrowly beating Wales on penalties despite failing to have a shot on target in the 120 minutes. They are extremely limited as a team, and in my mind are comfortably the worst of the three sides.
Group E
- Belgium (4/7), Ukraine (10/3), Romania (13/2), Slovakia (15/2) - To win the group odds (via Sky Bet)
On paper, Belgium should walk this group. They have an abundance of attacking firepower at their disposal, which should see them breeze into the knockout rounds, where their still vulnerable defence will be seriously tested.
The other three teams look evenly matched on paper, but I have preference for UKRAINE, and their price TO FINISH IN THE TOP TWO appeals greatly. Yes, they had to get through a play-off to make the main tournament, but they were in by far the toughest qualifying group, and missed out on second place to Italy on head-to-head record only.
That looks like great form, and their underlying numbers were solid enough too to have me thinking they can better Romania and Slovakia. Their spine is incredibly strong, and they continue to be tough to beat, while in forward areas they carry a huge threat. The schedule works into Ukraine's favour too, with them facing Romania first and then Slovakia before taking on Belgium, who may have top spot wrapped up by matchday three and could ring the changes.
Romania should be a fun watch but only posted average underlying numbers in the second easiest qualifying group, while Slovakia struggled against their only class opponent in qualifying (Portugal) and feasted on crap, meaning we don't have a feel on how they match up against 'mid-tier' teams like Ukraine and Romania.
Group F
- Portugal (1/2), Turkey (7/2), Czechia (5/1), Georgia (14/1) - To win the group odds (via Sky Bet)
I'm very sweet on PORTUGAL's chances at the Euros, and think they can cruise through Group F as WINNERS. Hardly a shock take, but from a betting perspective, doubling that up with GEORGIA TO FINISH BOTTOM at 13/8 looks a cracking way in.
Of all the 24 teams to qualify, Georgia were the worst in qualifying. They posted a -0.78 xGD per game across their eight matches, finishing fourth, needing to go the play-off route to qualify, in which they beat FIFA's 87th ranked side Luxembourg (who had 10-men for 35 mins) and Greece on penalties (AET xG: GEO 0.85 - 0.57 GRE).
Their three group opponents are all good or very good sides, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Georgians outclassed. Turkey won't be as bad as last Euros, now boasting more vibrant attacking talent, while Czechia are an all-round strong side.
Both should beat Georgia, and I can't choose between the two for a dual forecast bet, though I can see both qualifying for the knockouts.
Acca time...
As promised, here is my Group Stage acca for a bit of bigger-priced fun, with one selection from each group.
Group A - Switzerland to qualify
- The case for the Swiss has been made in the Group A section, though for the acca we will be taking them just to advance as opposed to winning the group.
Group B - Albania to finish bottom
- While perhaps too short to take as a single, putting the Albania selection into an acca makes sense. It should be a tough Group Stage for them.
Group C - Denmark to qualify
- The Danes should prove to be the second best team in Group C, but backing them to qualify covers us incase they make it as a third place team.
Group D - Austria to qualify
- A win over Poland will likely be enough to see Austria advance to the knockouts, and they are a decent price to help boost the price of the acca.
Group E - Ukraine to qualify
- We've backed Ukraine to finish in the top two as a single, but taking a more pragmatic approach in to qualify appeals for the multi.
Group F - Czechia to qualify
- I fancy both Turkey and Czechia to qualify, but at the prices the Czechs stand out to round off the acca.
CLICK HERE to back the Group Accumulator with Sky Bet
Odds correct at 1135 BST (10/06/24)
Euro 2024: More from Sporting Life
- Euro 2024: Sporting Life hub
- Euro 2024: Tips, best bets & analysis
- Euro 2024: All you need to know
- Free downloadable Euros wallchart
- Free downloadable Euros sweepstake kit
- Euro 2024: Fixtures, results & live scores
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