Jose De Sousa is in action on day three of the World Darts Championship

PDC World Championship darts: Day three predictions, odds, betting tips, accas, order of play & TV times

By Carl Fletcher

Darts

Mon December 21, 2020 · 5y ago

Our guide for Thursday's action at the PDC's William Hill World Darts Championship includes the order of play, match-by-match previews, predictions, seasonal statistics, head-to-head records, Sky Bet odds and a suggested acca.

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Click here for pre-tournament betting tips

After Wednesday's preview yielded two winning accas out of two for our @ChrisHammer180 as well as four winning odds against best bets, it's now the turn of our darts statistician and analyst Carl Fletcher to look ahead to the latest the Ally Pally action across two more sessions.

At the very bottom of this match-by-match guide are his graphics of every player's season stats as well as an additional one to chart how successful they've all been in achieving the 'Match Treble' in all their PDC matches this year (winning with the most 180s and highest checkouts).

World Championship: Thursday December 17

TV Coverage: Sky Sports Darts (1200 & 1800 GMT)
First/Second Round: Best of 5 sets, no tie-breakers in any set

Thursday darts acca

Mike De Decker (-1.5 sets), Ryan Murray, Luke Woodhouse (-1.5 sets) at 5.73/1
Click here to build your acca

AFTERNOON SESSION (1200 GMT)

Madars Razma (2/7) v Toru Suzuki (13/5) (R1)

Head to Head: 0-0
2020 Meetings: 0-0
PDC Titles this Season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Career PDC Titles: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 1-0
PDC World Championship Best: First Round (2020) - Debut

Not a great deal is known about World Championship debutant Toru Suzuki but the Japanese qualifier is a Unicorn sponsored contender player so you would imagine he’d have quite a bit of potential. Looking at his statistics from the PDC Asia Tour in 2019 he averaged 83.10 across the events and this would leave him with a bit to find on his Latvian opponent, Madars Razma who over the course of 2020 has averaged 91.11.

Razma lost 2-3 in the opening round last year to Harry Ward averaging just 83.12 but there’s been signs this year that he’s on the up. He qualified for two of the four Euro events but his most impressive display this year was his runner up effort at Players Championship 14 where he accounted for Dirk Van Duijvenbode, Ian White and Devon Petersen along the way. You’d expect him to come out on top but it’s worth noting that he’s not a big 180 hitter as he loves to switch to Treble 19. His 180 per leg rate this year is just 0.11, whereas Suzuki on the Asian Tour in 2019 was 0.18. That could be worth noting when selecting a bet on this match.

Score Prediction: 3-1
Suggested Bet: Toru Suzuki to hit the most 180’s with draw no bet 26/25 (Unibet)

Mike De Decker (1/4) v Edward Foulkes (3/1) (R1)

Head to Head: 0-0
2020 Meetings: 0-0
PDC Titles this Season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Career PDC Titles: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 0-0
PDC World Championship Best: Debut - Debut

International Qualifier Edward Foulkes, the 2020 Japan Championship winner is another World Championship debutant. He won the final averaging 80.39 and fought back from 2-4 to win 5-4 and just about out finished his opponent. Along the way he accounted for the well-known Seigo Asada so although we may not know a great deal about him, he’s clearly a capable player.

He faces another Worlds debutant in 24 year old Belgian, Mike De Decker. He regained his tour card through the European Q-School in January this year and he is an exciting talent. He’s had a decent if unspectacular year with his highlights including, two last 16 runs on the Players Championship tour, qualifying for one of the four Euro Tours, a couple of victories in the UK Open before losing a last leg decider to William Borland in the Last 96 and qualifying for the Players Championship Finals at the end of the season.

De Decker has a very good seasonal average of 92.32 and from what’s been seen of him on stage this year he should hold his nerve and be too consistent for his opponent. If that turns out to be the case you’d expect a comfortable victory.

Score Prediction: 3-0
Suggested Bet: Mike De Decker to win 3-0 (Betway)

Ryan Murray (4/5) v Lourence Ilagan (1/1) (R1)

Head to Head: 0-0
2020 Meetings: 0-0
PDC Titles this Season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Career PDC Titles: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 0-4
PDC World Championship Best: Debut – First Round (2013* came through Prelim game)

This will be the talented Ilagan’s fifth World Championship but for a player as talented as him he doesn’t have a very good record in the event and he will have been bitterly disappointed to lose in the opening round last year to Cristo Reyes. He averaged 85.16 on the PDC Asia circuit last year but he’s definitely better than that and he was the stronger of the Philippines pairing at the recent World Cup.

Scotsman Murray is a debutant this year but similar to the aforementioned De Decker he has had a decent year on tour. A seasonal average of 91.81 across all events but his Winter Series exploits in particular were very encouraging, 1 x Quarter-Final, 2 x Last 32 and 2 x Last 64 from the five events. He then backed this up further by beating Stephen Bunting in the opening round of the Players Championship Finals before losing to Damon Heta in a deciding leg in the last 32 to the inform Aussie.

This should be a tight encounter but on current form and given Ilagan’s history in this event I expect Murray to just about come through.

Score Prediction: 3-2
Suggested Bet: Over 4.5 Sets at 7/4 (William Hill)

Daryl Gurney (4/6) v William O’Connor (6/5) (R2)

Head to Head: 7-2
2020 Meetings: 1-0
PDC Titles this Season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Career PDC Titles: 5-1 (TV: 2-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 7-4
PDC World Championship Best: Quarter Final (2013) – Third Round (2019)

If there was ever a seed short of confidence you’d have to argue that ‘Superchin’ would fit that bill. The 2017 Quarter Finalist is not coming into this event in great shape. On the floor he’s had some mixed results but has reached 2 Quarter Finals and 1 Semi-Final. Arguably, his best effort this year was pre-lockdown when he lost to MVG in the Semi-Final of the UK Open. Interesting to note is that these players met in that event and William O’Connor led 7-1 only to lose 9-10 following a spirited fightback from the Northern Irish ace. There’s not a great deal to shout about since Lockdown however.

William O’Connor on the other hand has been in decent form of late. A comfortable winner against Niels Zonneveld in the opening round, where he scored particularly strongly. He’s already reached the Quarter Finals of the European Championships after being drafted in to replace a COVID positive, Glen Durrant. He also registered a Semi-Final run at a Players Championship event during the Winter Series.

O’Connor’s best effort at the Worlds is a Last 32 appearance in 2019 and he has much inferior Head to Head record against Gurney, where the seeded player leads 7-2. Despite these facts I can’t overlook the current confidence levels of the favourite Gurney and I can see a shock winner in a tight affair here.

Score Prediction: 2-3
Suggested Bet: William O’Connor to win at 6/5 (William Hill)

EVENING SESSION (1800 GMT)

Luke Woodhouse (4/6) v Jamie Lewis (6/5) (R1)

Head to Head: 2-2
2020 Meetings: 2-0
PDC Titles this Season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Career PDC Titles: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 1-7
PDC World Championship Best: Third Round (2020) – Semi-Final (2018)

It’s been a steady downward spiral for Welshman Lewis since reaching the Semi-Final of the Worlds in 2018. He only come through the opening round on the Players Championship Events three times this year and his poor run of form culminated in him taking a short break from the sport following a struggle at the International Darts Open where he lost 0-6 averaging just 57.72. Full credit to him however for showing his mental resolve as he qualified for this event through the PDPA Qualifiers. You can only beat who’s in front of you but during these qualifiers his opponent’s highest average was just 86.26. Even so, no one would begrudge Lewis any luck to aide is qualification.

His opponent probably won’t be as giving however as Bewdley thrower Luke Woodhouse as had a steady season. He’s qualified for two of the four Euro Tour events, reached the Last 16 of the Players Championship Finals and his best effort was a Quarter Final departure at Players Championship 8, where he beat Jamie Lewis 6-2 along the way. Despite a 2-2 Head to Head overall, Woodhouse has won both encounters this year.

Woodhouse has averaged 91.50 this year and he’ll be hoping to emulate last year’s run to the Last 32 where he notched a couple of good victories over Paul Lim and Michael Smith but feeling under the weather in then lost to Dimitri Van Den Bergh.

Score Prediction: 3-0
Suggested Bet: Luke Woodhouse to win -1.5 sets at 7/5 (Unibet)

Ron Meulenkamp (4/5) v Boris Krcmar (1/1) (R1)

Head to Head: 0-2
2020 Meetings: 0-1
PDC Titles this Season: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Career PDC Titles: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 4-1
PDC World Championship Best: Second Round (2019, 2020) – Prelim Round (2011)

This match is a very tight one to predict. This will be Meulenkamp’s fifth appearance at the Worlds but he’s been eliminated at the Last 64 on each previous occasion. He’ll have been disappointed not to have made the end of season Players Championship Finals but he did qualify for three of the four Euro Tour events without much success however afterwards. The Dutchman has a seasonal average of 91.39 and has always been a respectable 180 hitter, at a ratio of 0.26 per leg.

His opponent is Eastern European Qualifier, the Croatian Boris Krcmar. He has a similar seasonal average at 91.82 but ended up in his final match of this year’s campaign registering a 107.79 average in a 5-6 defeat to Michael Smith. Interestingly his other ton plus average this year (106.13) saw him also lose, this time 4-6 to Rob Cross. He’s fared slightly better than his opponent on Tour this year with three Last 16 runs in Players Championship events.

This will be his second visit to the World Championship albeit the other was back in 2011 in a preliminary round defeat to Per Laursen but he’s a much better player now than he was then. These players have met twice before and it’s 2-0 to the Croatian. This and recent form for me, just about gives him the edge.

Score Prediction: 2-3
Best Bet: Over 4.5 Sets at 13/8 (Bet365)

Ryan Searle (1/5) v Danny Lauby (7/2) (R1)

Head to Head: 0-0
2020 Meetings: 0-0
PDC Titles this Season: 1-0 (TV: 0-0)
Career PDC Titles: 1-0 (TV: 0-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 2-0
PDC World Championship Best: Fourth Round (2019) - Debut

American Lauby is making his debut at the Worlds. He won the CDC Continental Cup and his average on the CDC Tour this year is 87.50. We saw a glimpse of him at the World Cup of Darts and there was some good darts but also some erratic ones. If he’s to trouble his English opponent, he’ll need to be more consistent and up his 180 per leg ratio, which is pretty low at 0.11.

Searle on the other hand is a player very much on the up. One of my outsiders to follow at this year’s event; he certainly has a lot going for him. In average terms, his seasonal average of 94.94 puts him in the Top 16 players of 2020 and he’s a decent 180 hitter at 0.26 per leg.

Results and performance wise he’s in form too. A winner of Players Championship 3, he’s built on this further with a Semi-Final and Quarter-Final run too. He’s also averaged 100+ in five of his last ten matches. His record in this event is strong too having reached the Last 16 and Last 32 on his two previous appearances. He should prevail comfortably.

Score Prediction: 3-0
Best Bet: Searle to win and hit the most 180’s at 8/13 (Sky Bet)

Jose de Sousa (1/3) v Ross Smith (23/10) (R2)

Head to Head: 2-2
2020 Meetings: 0-1
PDC Titles this Season: 2-0 (TV: 1-0)
Career PDC Titles: 4-0 (TV: 1-0)
PDC World Championship Appearances: 3-3
PDC World Championship Best: First Round (2019, 2020) – Second Round (2019)

De Sousa is very much one of the favourites for this event after victories in both the European Darts Grand Prix and Grand Slam of Darts along with strong runs in numerous other events. His statistics on tour are up there with the best too. Averaging 97.80, hitting 180’s at a ratio of 0.35 per leg and winning 14% of legs with a 100+ checkout. He’s lost in the opening round of all 3 attempts in this event however and his opponent will be no easy match once again.

Ross Smith came through what should have been a very tough opener against David Evans fairly comfortably to continue the feeling that he’s coming into form at just the right time. He’s upped his performances of late and he had a respectable run to the Last 16 of the Players Championship Final where he found Damon Heta too strong after a fine victory over Nathan Aspinall. One thing to note in particular is Smith too is a big 180 hitter at 0.30 per leg over the course of the season. This could be the type of match that goes all the way and see’s the red bit being peppered with regularity.

The Head to Head record is 2-2 but Smith has won the only encounter between them this year. This should be closer than many predict but I expect De Sousa’s extra bit of class to see him just about prevail.

Score Prediction: 3-2
Suggested Bet: Over 10.5 Match 180’s at 10/11 (William Hill)

Season Statistics

To help you with your bets throughout the tournament, here are some excellent statistical graphs for every player in the field from Darts Tracker creator and Sporting Life contributor Carl Fletcher (@CarlyFletch & @Darts_Tracker on Twitter), while there is an additional graphic at the bottom charting each player’s frequency of bringing up the ‘Match Treble’ in PDC events this season. That is when they win, throw most 180s and hit the highest checkout. You can read more about Carl’s research on that by clicking here.

NB: Averages & 180 per leg data covers events except World Grand Prix (which is double-start and distorts figures), 100+ checkout % is all events, and doubles percentage is stage events only (majors and European Tour) because definitive double stats for Players Championship events aren't available.