Free darts betting tips: PDC World Championship selections based on model
James Cooper uses his darts model to pinpoint value in the four quarters of the draw ahead of the PDC World Darts Championship.
Recommended bets
1pt Joe Cullen to win quarter one at 12/1
0.5pt Jermaine Wattimena to win quarter one at 28/1
0.5pt Danny Noppert to win quarter one at 22/1
2pts Michael Smith to win quarter two at 11/4
0.5pt Mensur Suljovic to win quarter two at 12/1
3pts Peter Wright to win quarter three at 6/4
0.5pt Vincent van der Voort to win quarter four at 40/1
Like snooker, the indoor environment, head-to-head nature and pre-determined scoring system makes darts an ideal sport to model for gambling purposes.
Chris Hammer’s extensive preview sets the scene perfectly, while Carl Fletcher’s articles provide an array of statistics to hopefully enable you to bet smarter. The purpose of this article is a more clinical, number-driven tipping approach as I attempt to provide win probabilities for participants in each quarter to see if there is any value in comparison with the odds currently on offer.
The process
The approach I have taken is to produce ratings for each of the competitors based on various factors and then use those ratings to compile individual match prices. I do this by calculating the probability of Player A winning a set v Player B and then expanding that further depending on the match length as the tournament progresses. The model then calculates the odds of a player against all conceivable opponents in each round which then spits out a final 'To win the quarter' probability.
The example below shows how winning two matches can be calculated. With the big guns entering the tournament in round two, for illustrative purposes only I have advanced Jason Lowe and Steve Lennon from round one given they are favourites to do so.
As you can see I make Michael Smith a 1/5 favourite were he to meet Jason Lowe, and against possible next-round opponents, he is 4/7 v Devon Petersen and 1/6 were he to face Steve Lennon.
The formula I use to calculate the percentage chance of Michael Smith advancing to Round 4 is below which is represented by the progression figure above.
=0.837*((100*0.762*0.638+100*0.163*0.859)/100)
This gets extended for each fourth-round opponent and so on and the final probabilities are what I will be using for this article.
Quarter one
- Michael van Gerwen 0.57
- Dimitri van den Bergh 0.11
- Joe Cullen 0.09
- Dave Chisnall 0.05
- Jonny Clayton 0.05
- Danny Noppert 0.05
- Jermaine Wattimena 0.04
- Luke Humphries 0.02
- Rest all <0.01 individually
At a top industry price of 4/6, there’s little mileage siding with Michael van Gerwen given my 100% price is around 8/11. The 12/1 standout price on Joe Cullen is appealing and even at the general odds of 11/1, there’s scope to side with The Rockstar given he is a 10/1 chance on my model.
In the bottom half of this quarter, Dimitri van den Bergh and Dave Chisnall look overrated by the layers so savers on Jermaine Wattimena (at anything bigger than 20/1, with 28/1 the best price available) and Danny Noppert (at bigger than 20/1 - he’s 22/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook while there is 28/1 for small money on the exchange at the time of writing).
Quarter two
- Michael Smith 0.31
- Gary Anderson 0.13
- Devon Peterson 0.11
- Mensur Suljovic 0.11
- Glen Durrant 0.09
- Damon Heta 0.07
- Dirk van Duijenbode 0.07
- Rob Cross 0.06
- Adrian Lewis 0.03
- Jamie Hughes 0.02
- Rest all <0.01 individually
Easily the most open quarter without the presence of one of the 'Big Three' but there’s a strong argument to suggest that favourite Michael Smith should be shorter. He’s 9/4 with me to come through this section but is a general 5/2 shot with 11/4 available at Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, while it may interest some to know he’s no bigger than a 4/11 model price against worst-case quarter-final opponent Glen Durrant in a best-of-nine clash.
It’s possible to pick holes in the credentials of Gary Anderson, Devon Petersen and Durrant for one reason or another and all three look far too short, which leaves Mensur Suljovic and Damon Heta as the other potential cover bets. Heta is probably the most talented first-round participant so is a nightmare likely second round draw for Adrian Lewis. Purely on value grounds compared to the model, Suljovic has to be the call, though. It’s been well-documented that the Austrian hasn’t had the best preparation for this, but the layers may have overreacted with the general 12/1 available too big to ignore given he is single-figures with me.
Quarter three
- Peter Wright 0.50
- James Wade 0.15
- Krzysztof Ratajski 0.07
- Simon Whitlock 0.07
- Ian White 0.07
- Gabriel Clemens 0.04
- Jeffrey de Zwaan 0.03
- Ryan Searle 0.02
- Stephen Bunting 0.01
- Callan Rydz 0.01
- Andy Boulton 0.01
- Rest all <0.01 individually
This is a straightforward quarter to assess as I’m firmly in the Peter Wright camp. He’s odds against with every firm and a top price of 6/4, but he’s an even-money shot with me. Consequently, I have the rest of the field as poor value compared with the current prices on offer. He’s 1/4 to come through his first two matches and 8/13 to reach the quarter final on the model whereby he is rated a 2/5 chance against worse-case scenario opponent James Wade. On that basis, Snakebite looks a very solid betting prospect.
Quarter four
- Gerwyn Price 0.43
- Jose de Sousa 0.20
- Nathan Aspinall 0.15
- Daryl Gurney 0.06
- Mervyn King 0.03
- Chris Dobey 0.03
- Vincent van der Voort 0.03
- Brendan Dolan 0.03
- Ross Smith 0.02
- William O’Connor 0.01
- Luke Woodhouse 0.01
- Rest all <0.01 individually
For selection purposes this isn’t an easy quarter as at the very best prices available, Gerwyn Price (6/4), Jose de Sousa (5/1), Vincent van der Voort (40/1) and Brendan Dolan (55/1) all represent value.
The most appealing of that quartet is van der Voort. The Dutchman is fully exposed and has never progressed beyond the quarters in this tournament, but the bottom half of this section doesn’t look particularly strong, with Scott Waites a potential banana skin for Nathan Aspinall. Factor in that Daryl Gurney and Chris Dobey are not really firing on all cylinders of late, and the 40/1 on Van der Voort looks a shade too big.
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