World Darts Championship: Super Six outsiders based on what the stats say
Darts analyst Carl Fletcher is one of the leading statisticians in the game and he's used his expert insight and database to highlight six players that could go far at this year's PDC World Darts Championship.
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Given what’s happened in 2020 the PDC have done an absolutely remarkable job to get so many events on this year. Equally the number of different winners of these events has been staggering too. The four Euro Tour events were won by four different players, there were thirteen different winners of the twenty three Players Championship floor events and there were six different winners of the nine televised singles events.
With this in mind the 2021 PDC World Darts Championship promises to be one of the most, if not the most wide open edition ever.
The big three of Michael Van Gerwen, Peter Wright and Gerwyn Price head the betting but the gulf is no longer as big as it used to be and the likes of Jose De Sousa, Michael Smith and Dimitri Van Den Bergh et al are not too far behind in the market. But what about those further afield in the betting? I’m going to pick a ‘Super 6’ all at odds of 100/1 or more who are all more than capable of giving you a good run for you money.
But before I give you my selections, here are some statistics on every player I have compiled from the 2020 season that may help with your own decisions if you don't agree with mine. The averages & 180 per leg data covers events except World Grand Prix (which is double-start and distorts figures), 100+ checkout % is all events, and doubles percentage is stage events only (majors and European Tour) because definitive double stats for Players Championship events aren't available.
Jonny Clayton
The seventeenth seed may have just reached two quarter finals on the floor this year but his escapades on stage have seen him fare much better. A quarter-finalist in the Masters in the opening event of 2020, during which he claimed a 10-6 victory over world number one Michael Van Gerwen in the opening round. He also reached the semi-finals of the UK Open and European Championships, succumbing to Gerwyn Price and Peter Wright respectively and was runner-up to a very much in form Devon Petersen in the German Darts Championship. The highlight of the season for ‘The Ferret’ however must be his World Cup triumph alongside Gerwyn Price where they saw off their English opponents in the final.
Whilst his record in this event is far from outstanding, he’s played some excellent stuff this year. His best average of the year was a sublime 112.53 as he thumped Jeff Smith 6-1. His overall stats for the year are excellent too. His three dart average for the year is 95.73 (13th best of the 2020 Tour Card holders in the field) and he has a steady 0.27 180 per leg ratio but it’s his finishing record that is particularly special. He has a double percentage is 40.20% and the percentage of winning legs he’s won with a 100+ checkout is 15.50% (the highest of the 128 Tour Card holders in 2020).
If he can bring this form to the Worlds, there’s no doubt that he could be a danger man to all. He’s in quarter one and potentially has a Last 16 encounter with MVG ahead of him but given he’s proven he can beat him over a longer televised match earlier this year and the fact that ‘Mighty Mike’ has looked vulnerable at times during 2020, the Welshman could go deep.
- Best Outright Price: 100/1 Sky Bet.
- To win Quarter One: 14/1 with various providers.
Jermaine Wattimena
He may be in the same quarter as the aforementioned Jonny Clayton but is another capable of giving a bold showing and belying his current odds given a bit of fortune. The ‘Machine Gun’ however will argue that he’s not a lucky player as his opponents in knock out matches on the big stage during 2020 have certainly produced their A-Games in the matches he’s lost. His opponents’ averages read as 108.96, 107.53, 103.83 and 107.60. The only knockout phase game on stage in which this didn’t happen was the Double Start World Grand Prix but even then he ran into the eventual winner of that tournament in the opening round, Gerwyn Price.
To continue this theme further in the last two World Championship he’s also lost in two absolute classics. In 2020 he lost to Luke Humphries 2-3 in the second round and in 2019 he lost 3-4 Gary Anderson, where he missed the bull on three separate occasions to nail the big fish. One of which was for the match. It was definitely a case of what could have been.
Recent signs are good for the Dutchman too. He had a very impressive Winter Series in which he was Runner Up in the first event of the series to Michael Smith and backed this up with a further Quarter Final appearance too. In fact in November (24 matches) Wattimena’s average was 95.59, nearly two points above his seasonal average of 93.77. During this period he notched up his highest average of the year, 112.16 in a 7-3 Semi-Final victory over Brendan Dolan, he then registered his highest average on stage this year (107.12) in his final match heading into this tournament, albeit he was on the wrong end of another classic against Luke Humphries.
It may be quite surprising to read that he has a relatively low 180 per leg ratio of 0.19 given he’s such a quick rhythm player but his doubles percentage on stage in 2020 is superb. In fact of all players to have had 50 or more attempts at the double on stage this year, his is the highest at 46.58%, backed up by a respectable 11.96% of legs won by a 100+ finish. He’s not one you can discount easily and he’s certainly capable of ruffling a few feathers.
- Outright Price: 200/1 Sky Bet.
- To win Quarter One: 28/1 Bet365.
Mensur Suljovic
The likeable Austrian has skipped several recent events. We didn’t see him feature on the Winter Series and he missed the Players Championship Finals due to a family bereavement. The last time we actually saw Mensur he produced his highest average of the season (109.52) in the short format singles encounter against Michael Smith where he produced a stunning fightback to prevail 4-3.
In fact his form figures in 2020 read very well. He participated in just 16 of the Players Championship Floor events but he made three Quarter Finals, one Semi-Final and was Runner-Up in another. He arguably fared slightly better on the stage. A last 16 run in the UK open was respectable, he made the Quarter Finals of the opening Euro Tour event of the year, reached the Quarter Finals of the World Cup winning both singles matches he played, against Jose De Sousa and Michael Smith and reached the Semi Final of the third and fourth Euro Tour events.
He was famously dumped out of this event last year by the Queen of The Palace, Fallon Sherrock who’s finishing was majestic but he’s reached the Last 16 of this event on three occasions and the former Champions League of Darts winner should not be readily dismissed.
A very respectable yearly average of 94.67 and 180 per leg ratio of 0.25 certainly suggest he still holds his own at the very highest level. Perhaps three more pertinent stats are his ability to produce a ton plus finish to win a leg (14.05% of winning legs), his excellent record of 41.67% on Double 14 this year and his 13-5 win/loss record in last leg deciders in 2020.
His potential route hasn’t been too unkind either. A last 32 encounter against Gary Anderson could be in wait, who is currently nursing an injury and has previously admitted he doesn’t like playing against the slow pace that Mensur brings to the oche. Even further ahead he could face ‘Bully Boy’ Michael Smith. We’ve already touched on his World Cup Success over him but he arguably should have beaten him too in the second round of the Matchplay before succumbing to him 12-14. He would definitely start as underdog in that match should they both reach that stage but his performances against the fourth seed this year suggest the match would be a tighter encounter than most would anticipate.
- Outright Price: 125/1 Sky Bet
- To Win Quarter 2: 12/1 Various Providers.
Ryan Searle
In Quarter Three, Ryan Searle could upset the applecart. He begins against International Qualifier Dan Lauby in the opening round and the seed he potentially faces in the second round is 23rd seed Jeffrey De Zwaan. His mini section in the bottom half of the third quarter in general should be something with which Searle is relatively happy about, it could have been much worse. Potential opponents include Ian White (10), Stephen Bunting (26) and James Wade (7) all capable of both magical performances but equally throw in an odd sub-par performance. Yes, the other half of this quarter is very tough but a lot can and will happen before that potential clash.
It should also be noted Ryan also seems to enjoy this event. His best effort was in the 2019 World Championship where is lost to eventual runner, Michael Smith in the Last 16 and last year he lost 3-4 to Gary Anderson in the last 32 when looking the likely winner for much of the early running.
You can suggest also that Searle has improved as a player in 2020 and is much more consistent. He collected an early title when he won the third Players Championship event of the year where along the way he accounted for four of this current years Premier League line up in MVG, Gerwyn Price, Michael Smith and Glen Durrant plus his potential second round opponent here, Jeffrey De Zwaan. His average on the day was 97.14 and in six of his seven matches he notched an average of 96.72 or higher. This was been backed up with a further Semi-Final and Quarter Final appearance on the floor too.
This aforementioned consistency is something we’ve seen of late too. In 8 of his last 10 matches he’s again averaged 96 plus, in fact if you break this down further 5 of his last 10 matches have been ton plus averages and his average across these 10 matches is 98.29. His seasonal average is 94.94 which puts him in the Top 16 averages of the year and if he can continue to produce this consistency across the last few weeks of 2020 he could surprise a few.
- Outright Odds: 200/1 Sky Bet
- To Win Quarter Three: 33/1 SkyBet
Ross Smith
‘Smudger’ doesn’t boast the greatest of records in this event but has been in good form of late, coming into form at arguably just the right time.
At the International Darts Open (the fourth and final Euro Tour event of the year) he produced an outstanding display in the opening round when he registered an average of 112.86 as he walloped Mario Vandenbogaerde, 6-1. He built on this impressive display by reaching the quarter final before succumbing to eventual champion, Joe Cullen.
He then produced a decent enough display in defeat to Michael Smith in a last leg decider in the opening round of the European Championships. Then, in the most recent event – The Players Championship Finals – he lost out to the in-form Aussie, Damon Heta 7-10 in the last 16 after a couple of excellent performances and victories over Kim Huybrechts and Nathan Aspinall.
Smith faces a tough opener against David Evans and will have to produce some good darts to come out on top in that game. In doesn’t get much easier for him after this as Jose De Sousa lies in wait, then potentially further ahead there could be an encounter against Gerwyn Price. An interesting fact however in 2020 is that Smith has beaten Price twice from two matches (6-4 and 6-5) and he’s also beaten De Sousa in their sole encounter (6-5). That should give ‘Smudger’ plenty of confidence.
His yearly stats are very impressive too. A 41.44% checkout percentage on the doubles and a 94.03 seasonal average show he’s a match for anyone but he’s also in the top ten of 180’s hitters at 0.30 per leg. This scoring power should keep him interested in most legs and from what we’ve seen from him of late, his odds could come tumbling if he amasses a couple of early wins.
- Outright Price: 300/1 Sky Bet
- To Win Quarter Four: 50/1 BetVictor
Chris Dobey
The final pick of my big odds ‘Super 6’ is ‘Hollywood’ Chris Dobey. As you’ll have noticed from reading my previous selections, all have been showing good form and have plenty to shout about coming into this event. This can’t quite be said about this Bedlington arrow smith, in fact 2020 has arguably been fairly disappointing for Dobey.
To say he wasn’t great in his 2-7 loss in the Premier League as a contender vs Daryl Gurney is an understatement and despite qualifying for two of the four Euro Tour events, he didn’t pull up any trees in these either.
His best runs this year are two Quarter Finals on the floor but his highlight is probably a run to the last 16 of the UK open which included one of the matches of the year as he beat Krzysztof Ratajski 10-9, averaging 105.06 in a high quality encounter.
Despite all this is yearly average of 94.26 and 180 per leg ratio of 0.28 are very respectable and he’s lost to the eventual winner on the floor on five separate occasions, the joint most of all players on the Players Championship Tour this year with MVG, Price, Durrant and De Sousa. Perhaps the draws at times haven’t helped for ‘Hollywood’.
Dobey’s luck of the draw in his opening match of this year’s event is great either. He will play either Jeff Smith or the special young talent Keane Barry. Either will be a very difficult opponent. Looking further ahead of this though then his draw all of a sudden doesn’t like quite as bad. Potential opponents include an out of sorts Daryl Gurney and Nathan Aspinall who was a shade disappointing at the Players Championship Finals, scraping past Scott Waites before always being second best to Ross Smith in his second round defeat.
There is also one other potential angle which appeals when looking at Dobey from a betting angle and that’s his performances in this event the last two years, where on both occasions he’s lost in the Last 16. In 2019 he lost out in a belter of a match with Gary Anderson 3-4, despite averaging 100.83.
He then backed this up last year by reaching the same stage, coming past Fallon Sherrock in the Last 32 producing a very professional and ruthless display to come out on top before losing to Glen Durrant, once again losing 3-4 in a great tussle.
His liking for this event and the fact he was available at only a third of the odds he’s now priced at earlier in this year are enough to tempt me into backing him at these bigger odds.
- Outright Price: 150/1 Sky Bet
- To Win Quarter Four: 28/1 William Hill
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