Tennis betting tips: Today's Australian Open preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches

1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Novak Djokovic v Alex Zverev at 5/2 (bet365, Unibet, BetMGM)

1pt Ben Shelton to win a set against Jannik Sinner at 11/8 (BoyleSports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Jannik Sinner v Ben Shelton (0830 GMT)

Backing Sinner at odds-against to dismiss Alex de Minaur in straight sets was very satisfying – the match unfolded almost exactly as predicted with the Australian unable to punch any sort of hole in top seed’s game.

Sadly, you are only getting 8/11 in the same market this time with Sinner having now proved he’s over the illness which affected him in his fourth-round victory over Holger Rune.

That’s still worth considering, although the difference here is that Shelton has greater power – and a big serve – which does have the potential to cause the Italian problems.

That said, Sinner leads the head-to-head 4-1, winning the last four. He’s won the last nine sets in that series.

The big factor in that is how Sinner has feasted on Shelton’s second serve. The American has won just 44% of points behind his second deal; Sinner 62%.

However, there’s another statistic which will give Shelton some hope.

Across the five matches, it is Shelton who has actually created the most break-point opportunities – 28 to 26.

The problem is that Sinner has converted 42% of them and Shelton a paltry 11%.

Now, it’s long been said that playing the big points well is what separates the great from the good, but Shelton’s figure is so low that you have to think it will improve at some point.

Their last clash in Shanghai back in the autumn saw Sinner create only one break point but he took it and won the match in straight sets. Shelton had seven break points but didn’t take any of them.

Essentially, it wouldn’t have taken much to change for the result to turn out completely differently.

With that in mind, I’m going to back Shelton to win a set here at odds-against.

It’s notable that all five previous matches have seen a tie-break – it’s 8/11 about another here, which I did consider. Admittedly, Sinner has won four of the five played but that does suggest that Shelton can at least create a good chance to land this bet.

It’s not the best bet in the world so will keep stakes small but 11/8 is enough to tempt me in.

Novak Djokovic v Alex Zverev (0330 GMT)

It’s hard to be enthused by this as a betting contest, to be honest.

Djokovic ended up producing a magnificent performance against Carlos Alcaraz on Tuesday – the best we’ve seen from him in more than a year, I’d suggest – but it came after an early injury scare.

Now, if you take Djokovic at his word, he had a problem with his left thigh, which was strapped during a medical time-out, and he recovered once pain-killers kicked in.

Clearly, if that was the case, the question is how was he feeling once the analgesics wore off and what state will he be in come Friday?

We can only guess but what we do know is that Djokovic cancelled his practice session on Thursday – he is due to hit the practice court a couple of hours before this contest.

Of course, there’s another theory that the Serb was ‘faking’ his problem. He’s had a lot of mid-match injuries in the past but come through in the end, famously winning the title here in both 2021 and 2023 amid injury concerns.

If so, the tactic appeared to work on Alcaraz, who admitted afterwards he had been in two minds whether to change his game to take into account Djokovic’s issue.

I guess the camp you are in will determine how prepared you are to get involved in this match financially.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head 8-4 but is up 5-1 on outdoor hardcourts and 3-0 ahead in Grand Slam matches. However, they have met only once in the last three years, Djokovic winning a close contest on the slick courts of Cincinnati in straight sets in 2023.

The series stats suggest it could well be closer this time.

Djokovic has won 76% of first-serve points to Zverev’s 74% and has the edge (48 v 47) on second serve. Small margins.

One metric which does fall heavily in the Serb’s favour though is break-point conversion – Djokovic is up 54% v 33% here.

One suspects that won’t surprise many.

Zverev has garnered a reputation as something of a choker and many will dismiss his chances here.

Too many times we’ve seen him play some fine tennis in the early rounds – as we have in Melbourne – only for him to retreat into his shell somewhat when crunch time arrives.

He will need to go for his shots here but we’ve seen him fail to do so in several big matches over the past year – the Roland Garros final (which he led by two sets to one but didn’t push on), the US Open quarter-final with Taylor Fritz, and a rematch with the American in the last four of the ATP Finals.

The suggestion is all could have been won had Zverev been able to keep playing as he had and, subsequently, there’s a view that he lacks true belief that he can win the sport’s biggest prizes.

That certainly isn’t the case with Djokovic who will be playing in his 50th Grand Slam semi-final and is now just two wins away from setting an all-time record (man or woman) of 25 major titles.

If he is able to reproduce Tuesday’s effort, I’m pretty sure he’ll win and I can understand why people would back him at 8/13 to win this match.

However, that injury cloud is off-putting for me, certainly enough to swerve short prices.

I will, however, suggest a couple of options in the sub-markets.

Djokovic gets a 5.5 start in bet365’s ace handicap but he’s covered that in five of the pair’s last six meetings with the one he lost being by just a single ace.

He’s served well so far at this tournament, while Zverev was out-aced by Tommy Paul the other day, a match the American will still have big regrets about given he served for the first two sets but lost them both.

The key here is that were Djokovic to retire mid-match, stakes would be returned.

The other bet, at a bigger, more tempting price, is for the first set to go to a tie-break and that's what we'll go with.

That’s occurred in four of the last six meetings and I’m sure Zverev’s main focus early on here will be holding onto his own delivery and getting a foothold in the match.

Go down early against Djokovic and it’s very tough to recover.

Odds of 5/2 look worth a small bet.

Posted at 1635 GMT on 23/01/25

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