18:15 Kempton

Saturday 5 January 2019

All16:1516:4517:1517:4518:1518:4519:1519:45

32Red Handicap

Off time: 18:17 | Winning time: 3m 25.47s

(5)

Lord George^v¹⁴

Age: 6| Weight: 9-12| J: A Kirby| T: J R Fanshawe| OR: 104| CD

7/1

Promising fourth in a C&D contest in November on return from a break, and matched that when third of 7 to Redicean at Lingfield last time despite dropping in trip. Can build on that back at 2m.

Form: 209543-

(10)

Cosmelli^v²¹

Age: 6| Weight: 9-8| J: L Morris| T: Miss Gay Kelleway| OR: 100| D

40/1

Has been out of form until hinting at a revival over this trip at Newcastle last time, and claims from falling mark if building on that, but caution advised given patchy recent record.

Form: 816606-

(1)

Count Calabash²²

Age: 5| Weight: 9-5| J: Charles Bishop| T: Eve Johnson Houghton| OR: 97| C

9/2

Won over 1m3f here in the spring, and better form when 1¼L second of 9 to Caspar The Cub here last time. Takes big step up in trip, but solid chance if his stamina holds.

Form: 53/1102-

(9)

Addicted To You⁷⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 9-3| J: Jason Hart| T: C & M Johnston| OR: 95| D

18/1

Won well over 2m at Chelmsford in May, but has failed to finish on his last two starts, seeing to go wrong at Mannheim last time. That effort can be forgiven, but looked one to be wary of on previous start.

Form: 1P2/1UP-

(2)

Amade^b³⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 9-0| J: R Havlin| T: A G Botti| OR: 92

2/1

Has won five of his last seven starts at up to this trip, and latest win at Deauville was a career-best effort. Can play a big part in the finish if translating that form to British shores.

Form: 1/62111-

(4)

Winterlude²²

Age: 9| Weight: 8-13| J: J Fanning| T: J Candlish| OR: 91| CD

20/1

Having first run for well over a year when well held at Chelmsford over 1m2f in November, and took a backward step when last of 9 here next time. Could bounce back, but others preferred.

Form: 2500/69-

(8)

Cayirli^t1³⁹

Age: 7| Weight: 8-12| J: M Harley| T: S Durack| OR: 90| CD

9/1

Shock winner of the Queen's Prize over C&D last spring, and now lower in the weights. Has been running respectably in France of late, but probably needs a tongue tie to help if he's to regain winning ways.

Form: 006423-

(3)

Castlelyons^h²¹

Age: 7| Weight: 8-12| J: Callum Shepherd| T: R Stephens| OR: 90| C

10/1

Stayed on well when third here on second start after a break in November, and faced a stiff task when last of 8 over 2m at Newcastle last time. This is easier.

Form: 11/3838-

(11)

Eddystone Rock¹⁴

Age: 7| Weight: 8-11| J: Kieren Fox| T: J R Best| OR: 89

33/1

Plenty of form at around 1m4f which gives him a good chance here, but he's not delivered despite attracting support on occasions in the past year, and becoming very expensive to follow.

Form: 659506-

(6)

Envoy⁴⁷

Age: 5| Weight: 8-11| J: Ryan Tate| T: J M P Eustace| OR: 89| C

7/1

Gained third win of 2018 when scoring over 1m3f here in November, but below form last time, and takes a marked step up in trip on return, for which his stamina can only be taken on trust.

Form: 716118-

(7)

Zubayr¹⁴

Age: 7| Weight: 8-8| J: K T O'Neill| T: Ian Williams| OR: 86| C| D

14/1

Useful hurdler who was well below form on first start since leaving Paul Nicholls at Lingfield (1m4f) last time. Capable of bouncing back, but he needs to.

Form: 41222/7-

Forecasts

Amade (2/1), Count Calabash (9/2), Envoy (7/1), Lord George (7/1), Cayirli (9/1), Castlelyons (10/1), Zubayr (14/1), Addicted To You (18/1), Winterlude (20/1), Eddystone Rock (33/1), Cosmelli (40/1)

AMADE has an excellent strike-rate and put up a career best when winning on an artificial surface at Deauville last time, and he is weighted to win on a line through third-placed Cayirli. A bigger threat could be Lord George now back at a staying trip, although Castlelyons isn't dismissed having faced a stiff task last time.