12:05 Southwell

Monday 12 November 2018

All12:0512:3513:0513:4014:1514:4515:2015:50

sunracing.co.uk Handicap (Div 1)

Off time: 12:06 | Winning time: 1m 42.39s

(12)

Paramount Love⁵⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-8| J: T Hamilton| T: R A Fahey| OR: 72| D

16/1

Winner over an extended mile at Nottingham in May (from a 2lb lower mark) but has struggled to find her level since. The handicapper is relenting but she has something to prove after latest poor run.

Form: 513667

(13)

Keepup Kevin⁴⁸

Age: 4| Weight: 9-8| J: Rob Hornby| T: Mrs P Sly| OR: 70| D

5/1

Disappointed at Newmarket on penultimate start, and ran even worse at Beverley in September. Possible that a break will have refreshed him, but not easy to fancy on current evidence.

Form: 5-23250

(6)

Briardale²⁶

Age: 6| Weight: 9-8| J: P J McDonald| T: J D Bethell| OR: 70| D

10/3

Struggling for form at present, and latest run at Newcastle was particularly poor. Has a good record at this level, but failed to fire on only previous Fibresand outing.

Form: 075890

(4)

Tha'ir¹⁷

Age: 8| Weight: 9-6| J: Faye McManoman⁽⁷⁾| T: Olly Williams| OR: 68

50/1

Not the force of old, although handicapped accordingly. Well held at Doncaster after a break last time, and finished last on previous outing here.

Form: 154490

(1)

Count Montecristo^p¹⁸⁹

Age: 6| Weight: 9-5| J: Paula Muir⁽⁵⁾| T: R Fell & S Murray| OR: 67| D

16/1

On a long losing run, and has failed to beat a rival on last two starts, so has plenty to prove at present. Respectable efforts in three tries here earlier in the year, but others preferred.

Form: 3-53500

(10)

Placebo Effect³⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-5| J: A Mullen| T: Ollie Pears| OR: 69

12/1

Back to form when second st Beverley on penultimate start, and badly drawn when running poorly at Pontefract last time, so possible he will bounce back now.

Form: 943028

(5)

Shearian⁹

Age: 8| Weight: 9-3| J: Callum Shepherd| T: D Carroll| OR: 65| CD

15/2

Has won six times here in the past, and been known to bounce back from lesser turf efforts on this surface, so needs consideration for all he's not been in the best of form lately.

Form: 706006

(9)

Zapateado^h,t²¹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-3| J: L Morris| T: Paul George| OR: 67| D

15/2

Chepstow winner on good going in August and matched that form at Windsor last time when third of 14 to Livvys Dream. Has form on AW, but no experience of fibresand.

Form: 652143

(2)

Pecheurs De Perles^h¹⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 9-0| J: R Winston| T: J Butler| OR: 62

40/1

Very well handicapped on the best of his form in Ireland but a long time since he's shown anything approaching that, and he's not beaten another rival in three runs this season, changing yards again before most recent outing.

Form: 300-090

(8)

Milan Reef⁴⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-12| J: Josephine Gordon| T: D Loughnane| OR: 62| D

40/1

Standout effort when second at Chepstow in May, but has run badly on both starts since, and balance of her form leaves her with plenty to find.

Form: 25-0200

(11)

Break The Silence^p³²

Age: 4| Weight: 8-9| J: Theodore Ladd⁽⁵⁾| T: S Dixon| OR: 57| C| D

4/1

Won over 7f here in August and has run respectably on both starts since. Has more going for him than most, so merits consideration.

Form: 528174

(3)

Earl Of Bunnacurry¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 8-8| J: K T O'Neill| T: G P Cromwell| OR: 52

12/1

Had looked very limited until showing more in a 1m½f maiden at Cork last time, and yard is in form, so not a massive surprise if he got involved.

Form: 0-90099

Non-Runners

(7)

Sajanjl¹²

Weight: 9-5| Age: 3

T: S & E Crisford J: Non Runner

Forecasts

Briardale (10/3), Sajanjl (7/2), Break The Silence (4/1), Keepup Kevin (5/1), Shearian (15/2), Zapateado (15/2), Earl Of Bunnacurry (12/1), Placebo Effect (12/1), Paramount Love (16/1), Count Montecristo (16/1), Pecheurs De Perles (40/1), Milan Reef (40/1), Tha'ir (50/1)

Not many of these arrive in form, and course form is also thin on the ground, which complicates matters, but SHEARIAN tends to save his best for Fibresand, so can shrug off some modest efforts now back at his favoured venue. Break The Silence is a course winner who hasn't been running badly since, so looks a danger, with Placebo Effect not ruled out having had excuses at Pontefract last time,