18:45 Newcastle

Wednesday 17 October 2018

All17:1017:4518:1518:4519:1519:4520:1520:45

Download The App At 188Bet/British EBF Novice Stakes

Off time: 18:47 | Winning time: 1m 14.99s

(9)

Drogon¹⁸

Age: 2| Weight: 9-9| J: R Kingscote| T: Tom Dascombe| OR: 93

11/10

45,000gns yearling; drops back in trip (first run over 6f) after folding tamely over 1m at Haydock last month; sets the form standard based on his decisive 7f Haydock win; unproven on AW with front-running tactics difficult to adopt at Newcastle.

Form: 31029

(4)

Andies Armies²¹

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: Patrick Pilley⁽³⁾| T: L Williamson

250/1

Triple figure odds when tailed off last on both AW starts so far (6f-7f); no conceivable chance.

Form: 80

(3)

High Contrast

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: P J McDonald| T: K R Burke

8/1

60,000gns foal; third foal; half-brother to the 1m AW winners Dreaming Of Paris and Champarisi; represents a locally-based owner; market can hopefully provide some clues.

Form:

(8)

Jack Berry House

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: Nathan Evans| T: M & D Easterby

80/1

£12,000 yearling; second foal out of an unraced dam who was a half-sister to the 7f-1m winner Sunshine Always.

Form:

(5)

Jean Merci⁶

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: G Lee| T: K Dalgleish

28/1

€20,000 juvenile; dam placed in French 1m turf/AW claimers; 10/1 for debut at Ayr (6f, soft) last week, but green throughout in finishing a keeping on 8¾L fourth of eight to Epona.

Form: 4

(11)

Liquid Lunch⁸

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: T Hamilton| T: R A Fahey| OR: 75

4/1

Just held when a neck runner up to Fognini in a 6f Redcar novice in August, but not quite as strong in two races since; further improvement needed in order to score on AW debut.

Form: 43264

(6)

Scottish Blade²⁰

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: J Fanning| T: C Hills

4/1

60,000gns yearling; brother to the 6f winner Shanghai Glory; 12/1 when showing obvious signs of inexperience on debut at Kempton (6f) last month, beaten 10L (fifth) by San Donato.

Form: 5

(1)

Slaithwaite²²

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: Jamie Gormley⁽³⁾| T: R Fell & S Murray

100/1

£30,000 yearling; half-brother to the AW scorer Mulligatawny; showed little promise in a couple of starts on turf (6f-7f+) last month, and switches to the AW needing a substantial upturn in fortunes.

Form: 08

(12)

Spokesman¹⁴

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: J Mitchell| T: R Varian

12/1

50,000gns yearling; closely-related to the 6f-1m winner Dark Emerald; achieved little of note in two starts so far (7f turf); no surprise to see him dropped in trip for this AW switch.

Form: 08

(2)

Tuscarora Deep

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: Jason Hart| T: J & S Quinn

25/1

Not sold at €10,000 as a yearling; second foal out of a staying dam (Miss Mysterious); late starter; market can only guide.

Form:

(7)

See My Baby Jive

Age: 2| Weight: 8-11| J: Rowan Scott⁽³⁾| T: D W Whillans

100/1

£2,500 yearling; first foal out of an unraced dam (Lady Fiona); trainer not known for supplying juvenile winners (or runners); best overlooked.

Form:

(10)

Zalmi Angel¹⁸

Age: 2| Weight: 8-11| J: A Mullen| T: Adrian Nicholls

50/1

£8,500 yearling; ninth foal; half-brother to four winners including Grey Morning (7f); 40/1 when finishing a well held seventh of ten to Fastman on debut at Ripon (6f) last month.

Form: 7

Forecasts

Drogon (11/10), Liquid Lunch (4/1), Scottish Blade (4/1), High Contrast (8/1), Spokesman (12/1), Tuscarora Deep (25/1), Jean Merci (28/1), Zalmi Angel (50/1), Jack Berry House (80/1), Slaithwaite (100/1), See My Baby Jive (100/1), Andies Armies (250/1)

The standout horse on both form and ratings is Drogon, but he does come with a few risks attached, folding tamely over 1m at Haydock latest and with effectiveness to prove over 6f on Tapeta (first attempt at either). Furthermore, his trainer Tom Dascombe has a modest 16% strike-rate (4-25) at this track, and front-running tactics are never the easiest to adopt at Newcastle, so jockey Richard Kingscote will need to be firmly on his mettle. Therefore, for small stakes we'll look elsewhere and take a chance on the John Dance-owned newcomer HIGH CONTRAST. He is a half-brother to a couple of 1m AW winners and cost 60,000gns as a foal.