14:05 Newcastle

Saturday 30 June 2018

All12:2012:5513:3014:0514:4015:1515:5016:25

Stobart Rail & Civils Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap)

Off time: 14:09 | Winning time: 3m 33.56s

(10)

Higher Power⁵¹

Age: 6| Weight: 9-10| J: T P Queally| T: J R Fanshawe| OR: 108| CD

10/1

Gamely held off Natural Scenery by ½L when winning this race off a 1lb lower mark in 2017 and posted his best effort since when runner up at Chelmsford (1m6f) last month; no back-to-back Plate winner since Tug Of War in 1977/78.

Form: 1097-82

(7)

Time To Study¹⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 9-10| J: P J McDonald| T: C & M Johnston| OR: 108| BF

16/1

Not raced on the AW since November 2016 (1-2), so notable that he tries something new after a consistent spell of turf form including in Group contests; stays well, finished just under 9L fifth in the 2m2.5f Chester Cup in May.

Form: 1-22544

(5)

Nakeeta^h⁵⁰

Age: 7| Weight: 9-9| J: Callum Rodriguez⁽³⁾| T: I Jardine| OR: 107

20/1

2017 Ebor winner (Natural Scenery third) who acquitted himself admirably in the Melbourne Cup at Flemington in November (fifth of 23); sole AW experience came in this race in 2016 when finishing tenth of 20 to Antiquarium.

Form: 02415-0

(17)

Prince Of Arran²²

Age: 5| Weight: 9-9| J: Adam J McNamara⁽³⁾| T: C Fellowes| OR: 107| D

16/1

50% AW strike-rate (3-6), and arrives here via Meydan, Chester and Belmont Park; beaten just over 1L in the US earlier this month when third to Call To Mind in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup (2m, firm).

Form: 218863

(13)

Watersmeet⁵⁰

Age: 7| Weight: 9-8| J: J Fanning| T: C & M Johnston| OR: 106| D

12/1

Game front-runner; thrives on AW racing (11-22), but has drawn a blank on both previous visits to this track; high in the weights for his AW Championships exploits and unlikely to be strong enough as a result; trainer saddles three runners.

Form: 3-11139

(2)

On To Victory^h⁴³

Age: 4| Weight: 9-8| J: Charles Bishop| T: Eve Johnson Houghton| OR: 106

16/1

Beaten approximately 2L when finishing fourth to Secret Advisor in the 1m6f Melrose at York in August 2017 and has continued to run to a consistent level of form thereafter (Conditions Stakes winner); current handicap mark relatively tough.

Form: 2414-28

(20)

Top Tug⁸

Age: 7| Weight: 9-7| J: G Lee| T: A King| OR: 105| BF| D

20/1

Again ran well in the 1m4f Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot recently (fifth), shaping as if needing a longer trip; 2-3 on the AW (Polytrack) but untried on synthetics since 2016; wide draw tricky, but there are far worse 'outsiders'.

Form: 4020-25

(18)

Lord George^v⁹²

Age: 5| Weight: 9-7| J: Daniel Muscutt| T: J R Fanshawe| OR: 105| D

20/1

The application of a visor has helped to steer him back on a wayward course, beaten by just a nose on AW Championships Finals Day (Marathon) at Lingfield in March; close up fourth of 20 in this race in 2017 (off 9lb lower).

Form: 424-142

(1)

Arch Villain^b²⁷⁵

Age: 9| Weight: 9-6| J: P Mulrennan| T: Mrs A J Perrett| OR: 104| D

50/1

25/1 winner of a 2m Class 2 Handicap on Shergar Cup Day at Ascot in August 2017 and rated 4lb higher here; off the track since September 2017 but has gone well fresh previously and is 7-13 on the AW (only 18th of 20 in 2016).

Form: 1001/48-

(19)

Clever Cookie^p¹⁴

Age: 10| Weight: 9-5| J: D Allan| T: P D Niven| OR: 103| D

50/1

A tremendous servant to connections over the years, building up a firm fan club along the way, but he's seemingly on the downgrade now at the age of ten; finished ninth of 20 in this race in 2017 (33/1).

Form: 6-73667

(3)

Curbyourenthusiasm³⁵

Age: 7| Weight: 9-4| J: Oisin Murphy| T: D M Simcock| OR: 102

33/1

No win since November 2016 (1m6f, Chelmsford), but broadly consistent this year after a very light previous campaign; 2L runner up to Cayirli in the Class 2 Queen's Prize Handicap at Kempton in April; rates as an unlikely winner.

Form: 322625

(14)

Natural Scenery⁹¹

Age: 5| Weight: 9-3| J: P Hanagan| T: S bin Suroor| OR: 101| CD

11/2

First start in the UK since wintering at Meydan, but this mare is a force to be reckoned with on her rock-solid 2017 form-lines with Nakeeta (Ebor) and Higher Power (Northumberland Plate); strong record at Newcastle; 1,1,2; leading contender.

Form: 38-3549

(4)

Soldier In Action²¹

Age: 5| Weight: 9-3| J: J Mitchell| T: C & M Johnston| OR: 101| D

33/1

7lb lower than when making all to score by ½L (Lord George second) over 2m on the Polytrack at Kempton in November, but tough to build a case for him on the basis of his 2018 efforts; trainer saddles three runners.

Form: 486687

(16)

Island Brave⁴⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 9-2| J: B A Curtis| T: H Main| OR: 100| C

18/1

Strong AW performer (6-12; 4-4 on Tapeta). That said, his latest 'win' was somewhat fortuitous, controversially awarded a race by the Newcastle Stewards on Good Friday; up 5lb in a very competitive contest, so probably likely to struggle.

Form: 3-11215

(11)

Withhold^p²⁵⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 9-1| J: R Winston| T: H & R Charlton| OR: 99| D

5/1

Not quite 100% this season so deliberately held back since landing a major gamble in the Cesarewitch (2m2f, good) at Newmarket in October with future targets firmly in mind (Melbourne Cup); 12lb higher; only his second ever AW start.

Form: 2121/31-

(12)

Byron Flyer^p²¹

Age: 7| Weight: 9-0| J: Fran Berry| T: Ian Williams| OR: 98| D

16/1

Sneaks into the race for a trainer who took the Northumberland Vase in 2017 with London Prize; 2-4 on the AW and could potentially see his recent 2m Haydock form franked by the The Grand Visir and Euchen Glen (1.30pm).

Form: 227-520

(6)

Lagostovegas^h¹¹^{(ex 5)}

Age: 6| Weight: 9-0| J: L F Roche| T: W P Mullins| OR: 93| D

9/1

Dual purpose mare who finished 8¾L third to Withhold in the 2017 Cesarewitch (2m2f, good). Scaled new heights when a cosy 1L winner of the 2m4f Ascot Stakes; down in trip carrying a 5lb penalty for AW debut; Mullins first Newcastle (AW) runner.

Form: 3/1332-1

(8)

Amazing Red²¹^{(ex 5)}

Age: 5| Weight: 9-0| J: Jim Crowley| T: E A L Dunlop| OR: 93| D

11/2

Carries a 5lb penalty for his emphatic career best 1m6f Newmarket win earlier this month (4lb well in); fairly unexposed despite his age (1-4 on the AW), but on form needs to reach another level in order to follow up in this race.

Form: 4-36151

(15)

Sir Chauvelin⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 8-13| J: D Tudhope| T: J S Goldie| OR: 97| C| D

12/1

A winner on his last visit to Newcastle in November 2017 (2m Class 2 Handicap) and also ran well in both the 2017 Plate (sixth) and the 2016 Vase (fourth) so evidently well suited by this track; staying on 33/1 second at Royal Ascot recently (1m4f).

Form: 001-842

(9)

Cayirli⁵⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 8-13| J: S W Kelly| T: S Durack| OR: 97| D

33/1

Shock winner of the Queen's Prize Handicap at Kempton at odds of 50/1 on his return from an 18-month absence in April (Curbyourenthusiasm second); well beaten 15th of 16 in the 2m2.5f Chester Cup since.

Form: 9084/10

Forecasts

Withhold (5/1), Amazing Red (11/2), Natural Scenery (11/2), Lagostovegas (9/1), Higher Power (10/1), Sir Chauvelin (12/1), Watersmeet (12/1), Prince Of Arran (16/1), Time To Study (16/1), On To Victory (16/1), Byron Flyer (16/1), Island Brave (18/1), Nakeeta (20/1), Top Tug (20/1), Lord George (20/1), Soldier In Action (33/1), Cayirli (33/1), Curbyourenthusiasm (33/1), Clever Cookie (50/1), Arch Villain (50/1)

Those who forecast the slow demise of the Northumberland Plate are increasingly silent with the 2018 renewal potentially the strongest for many years. The Cesarewitch winner Withhold is evidently a Group horse in the making and is fancied to confirm that form with Lagostovegas despite the Mullins-trained raider being race-fit from her Ascot Stakes success. However, Godolphin have firmly set this race in their sights over the past couple of years, with 2017 runner-up NATURAL SCENERY seeking to enhance her already fine Newcastle record. While she rates as the selection, a couple of lively outsiders worthy of each-way respect include Sir Chauvelin and Top Tug.