Which Grade One winner 'should be favourite' for Cheltenham Festival handicap?

2022 Cheltenham Festival antepost tips

1pt win Elixir De Nutz in Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase at 16/1 (General - NRNB)

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Betting on Cheltenham Festival handicaps is a bit of a minefield at the best of times and getting stuck into such races well in advance, not knowing anything like the final fields, the make-up of the race from a pace perspective, or the state of the going, shouldn’t really appeal much to punters at all.

With that in mind, I’m always keen to try and temper my own knee-jerk reactions following the traditional unveiling of the BHA marks, especially when it comes to the Irish horses. It should never be quite so basic as spotting a number pinned to a horse, then navigating your way to the deposit button.

There seemed to be a load of excitement on Tuesday over a figure of 141 for the Willie Mullins-trained State Man, for instance, yet he was hardly being missed in the betting in the first place and on top of that, this is a horse with three options across the handicaps as well as entries in the Grade One Sky Bet Supreme and Ballymore.

Good luck to anyone investing significant sums at odds around about 6/1 non-runner no-bet for all three of the County Hurdle, Coral Cup and Martin Pipe. With a rating of 141, he’s actually only 2lb lower than Stage Star – one of Britain’s biggest hopes for the Ballymore should he run – so it’s not like he’d look out of place in one of the top-class races if Mullins ultimately decides to go down that route.

I fully understand the clamour regarding 129 for the Mullins-trained Gaelic Warrior in the Boodles, though we've yet to see him in outside of France, while Gordon Elliott’s Frontal Assault and Henry De Bromhead’s Ain’t That A Shame getting 145 and 144 make them of massive interest for the Kim Muir. But there are no prizes for originality there either.

The Ultima Handicap Chase is typically best left for the home team and it’ll be interesting to see whether Frodon takes up his engagement in the race. You’re going to need to know whether or not he’s actually running before having a bet, though, whereas a race like the Plate Handicap Chase is currently topped by four horses rated 155 so it looks a lot safer in terms of knowing the shape of the handicap at least.

I’m definitely interested in Nicky Henderson’s Fusil Raffles running off a career-low mark (149) in the Plate and while he holds an Ultima entry too I’d be surprised if he’s not aimed at the shorter race on the back of his non-staying fifth in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster. His top price (14/1) is no more than fair at the moment.

The Brits could genuinely struggle to get much of a look in when it comes to the McCoy Contractors County Hurdle, or the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, which has become the sort of race you really need to be on the hunt for a future Gold Cup contender.

I backed State Man’s owner/stablemate Ganapathi for the Sky Bet Supreme 12 months ago, only for him to end up running in the County Hurdle as one of the market leaders (6/1). He was comfortably held at the Festival but was running an eyecatching race before falling at the last in a Grade One novice at Punchestown last April, since when he’s gone missing completely.

A mark of 145 leaves the door open for another go at the County, a shot at the Coral Cup, or a top-weight venture down the Martin Pipe route on his belated return to action. He’s another I’ll be keeping an eye one come declaration time, though I couldn’t put anyone off the current NRNB 20/1 for the boys’ race with Paddy Power and the Betfair Sportsbook.

On the subject of the Coral Cup, there was some solace in seeing each-way Ballymore fancy I Am Maximus down at number 82 for the big day-two handicap as there must be a chance he’ll miss the cut by some way, effectively forcing connections’ hand in going for the G1.

He may not be good enough in that sort of company at this stage of his career, but I’m pretty confident his current official rating of 134 won’t do him justice in the fullness of time. He’s all about potential at this point and at the other end of the spectrum there are a whole host of handicap entries who are rather more on the decline and beginning to look quite well treated.

As touched upon by David Johnson in his piece earlier in the week, it generally pays to side with the progressive, younger legs in Cheltenham handicaps rather than chance an old flame on the downgrade, but I’m a firm believer that there is a sweet spot to be found between the two and ELIXIR DE NUTZ just about nails it for me in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase.

As a Grade One winner during his novice hurdle days and rated 153 over the smaller obstacles at the beginning of the 2019-20 campaign, I’m struggling to find any horse as obviously well handicapped as Colin Tizzard’s runner having got in here off 143.

A total of 169 previous Grade One winners have run in Cheltenham Festival handicaps since the turn of the millennium and only nine have returned victorious, the most recent being Blow By Blow in the 2018 Martin Pipe, but Alderwood pulled it off in the Grand Annual in 2013 from a mark of 140 and former Tolworth hero Elixir De Nutz looks to have loads going for him aside from the obvious class edge.

I’m pretty sure we can all but ignore the Sporting Life Arkle entry, especially with stablemate War Lord bound for that race and EDN’s owner Terry Warner having enjoyed a Grand Annual triumph through Oiseau De Nuit 11 years ago.

On top of that, Elixir De Nutz’s weight (10-13) seems unlikely to alter with current top horse and title-holder Sky Pirate almost guaranteed to run here again as he holds no alternative entries.

The weights should hold firm then, but the betting market could easily cut up significantly below the selection as Ciel De Neige (8/1) and Coeur Sublime (9/1) – given marks of 152 and 151 - look a little more likely to maybe chance their arm in an Arkle, with the former also having the option of staying at home for a top-class contest over an intermediate trip at Fairyhouse in early-April.

Brave Seasca (7/1) seems to need testing conditions and his yard is reportedly under a cloud, which also casts a shadow over stable companion and 12/1 shot Frero Banbou.

• Click here to back Elixir De Nutz with Sky Bet!

Elixir De Nutz, who lost his way over hurdles and clearly wasn’t himself after being restricted to just one chase start last season, has his mojo back since being fitted with a tongue-tie on his last three outings.

The nose second at Exeter was pretty galling as he’d done the hard work before being nutted right on the line in bad ground, but he’s since gone on to beat Nassalam and Annual Invictus at Plumpton (in line for a £50,000 bonus at Cheltenham having won there), and then sauntered home in a relatively weak affair on good ground at Kempton (full replay below).

On that evidence, confidence would appear to be soaring again and the general signs from the Tizzard team are certainly brighter than they were going into last year’s Festival – strike-rates of 0% (0-35) and 9% (5-53) last January and February, compared to 17% (8-46) and 16% (9-56) this January and February respectively.

Frankly, it's not hard to argue dual Cheltenham winner (including one on the New Course used on the Wednesday of the Festival) Elixir De Nutz should be favourite for the Grand Annual, and he’s one I’m keen to back accordingly.

Published at 1400 GMT on 02/03/22

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1pt win Elixir De Nutz in Grand Annual Handicap Chase at 16/1 (General - NRNB)

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