Tips and advice for betting at the Cheltenham Festival from Timeform's David Johnson
Timeform's David Johnson shares the lessons he's learned over the years betting at the Cheltenham Festival and offers some advice for next month.
This is the time of year when you won’t go short of advice on how (and what) to bet at Cheltenham.
Now there are plenty ways to skin this particular Prestbury Park cat. Some will follow form, others will be looking at time/sectionals analysis, plenty more might be follow certain jockeys and trainers, and whisper it, some will go on jockeys’ silks.
Remembering back to the likes of Master Oats and Imperial Call, I’ve spent more than 20 years trying various combinations of the above, with varying degrees of success it must be said. This is a list of a few things I’ve learnt in that time. Feel free to get in touch on twitter @davidjohnsonTF if there’s anything you think I’ve got wrong.
You will back a lot of losers
Even the very best jockeys and trainers at the meeting typically lose three times out of four. The earlier you get to grips with and accept it, the better. It’s easy to say, but try to avoid letting backing losers affect your confidence – even if results don’t go your way on day one, there’s no need to change your approach on day two... unless perhaps you’ve been backing solely English-trained horses. More seriously, I’d suggest concentrating on betting win-only, and try to avoid perceived low-risk each-way bets, even with extra places. Eight places in the Pertemps might convince me to have a dabble, but generally, I’ll be betting win-only.
Back the improvers, swerve 'well-in on old form'
Most races at Cheltenham are won by improving horses with their best days ahead of them, and they are the ones you should concentrate on backing. There will be lots of horses that will look well treated on their form from a year or more ago, but a very small number come back to that level, despite the convincing case made for it at the preview night. I look back with shame at backing If The Cap Fits each-way in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle, no matter how convincing the case for him to place on his old form was. Side with a Minella Indo or Al Boum Photo on last year’s form if you wish, but the Gold Cup has a habit of going to a young chaser having his first crack at the race and Protektorat fits the bill for me.
Stick to the best jockeys and trainers
It sounds obvious, but while Cheltenham is big meeting for us, the pressure on those directly involved is magnified. In an Arkle market where there’s not much to separate the leading contenders on form, I’d much rather have Blue Lord on side for the Mullins/Townend combination for whom it will seem much more like just another race, than the King/Cannon team with Edwardstone for whom a Festival success is a rarity of late or unknown. Efforts from the likes of Dunguib in the Supreme and Rhinestone Cowboy in the Coral Cup in years gone by also act as reminders that it’s no good the horse being up to it if the jockey isn’t.
Cut through the noise
Probably a bit late for this this season, but worth bearing in mind in future years with regards ante-post – ignore trainer waffle around running plans. If you have a strong instinct about which race a horse should run in, be prepared to back it for it. If your summary is correct, it’s likely to run in that race – if it runs elsewhere, it’s more likely you got it wrong, so go back and see what did you miss?
Use ratings... in the right way
Use ratings to help you grasp form, but remember what their limitations are. They represent what a horse has done in the past, not what it will do in the future. The Betfair Hurdle has been a good example in recent years of horses winning that and running to a standard close to what is required in the Supreme, yet all of them have come up short on the big day. A handicap against fully exposed rivals allows them to show exactly what they can do, compared to rivals that have been kept to solely novice company.
Use multis to capitalise on getting it right
Try and look for related formlines or running plans to play them in multiples. If either Dysart Dynamo or Sir Gerhard win the Supreme, the other is likely to start a very short price for the Ballymore. As the week goes on, look at formlines that have been boosted on previous days at the Festival. Simply The Betts was backed as if a good thing for the Plate on Thursday after the horse he beat on Trials day, Imperial Aura had won the novices handicap on the opening day in 2020.
Trust yourself and always gamble responsibly
Feel free to ignore any or all the above if an isolated occasion demands it. In a betting world dominated nowadays by models/automation and fewer genuine opinions, intuition honed over many years can be one of your biggest weapons. Finally, bet responsibly and enjoy the meeting, events elsewhere around the world of the last few weeks really do act as a reminder that so often we get a bit too het up about what is fundamentally just horses running around a field.
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