Cheltenham Festival tips: Antepost preview & best bets for JCB Triumph Hurdle
2022 Cheltenham Festival antepost tips
1pt win Porticello in JCB Triumph Hurdle at 16/1 (General)
It’s not always easy to decipher whether the British juveniles are up to matching strides with their Irish counterparts, but Pied Piper running in the JCB Triumph Trial Hurdle at Cheltenham last weekend helped clear one or two things up.
That was evidently the initial, knee-jerk reaction anyway, Gordon Elliott’s horse having been slashed to a best-priced 5/2 for the Triumph at the Festival after sauntering to a nine-length victory over 50/1 shot Moka De Vassy (see replay below).
Davy Russell’s silky-smooth style of riding can occasionally go some way to exaggerating a horse’s superiority over the rest of the field but I’m not sure there was too much of that at play on Saturday, rather the son of New Approach simply proving far too quick - on the good ground - for a bunch of horses who are bound for staying assignments further down the line.
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The problem when it comes to him doubling up in the big race itself is that the Triumph more often than not becomes a bit of a war of attrition, stamina typically proving the deciding factor, rather than a burst of pace.
Despite winning twice over 10 furlongs, Pied Piper was a relatively weak finisher over a mile and a half on the Flat and although he now suddenly appears to have the hurdling world at his feet, having also beaten the well-regarded Vauban on debut at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve prior to Cheltenham, he also looks plenty short enough at the time of writing.
The Willie Mullins-trained Vauban stayed 12 furlongs well on the level in France, winning twice in testing conditions for previous connections, and he could obviously rubber-stamp the whole Pied Piper body of form further still with victory (already a short price) in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown this Saturday.
The Spring Juvenile has been a good pointer over the years, including last season when won by subsequent Triumph hero Quilixios, but I’m keen to loop back to the very first line of the preview and highlight the Timeform view that, contrary to popular belief, there probably isn’t a huge amount between the Irish and the pick of the home-based horses in this division at this stage of the game.
Pied Piper went in at the top of the shop with a TF rating of 141p on the back of his Trials Day stroll, but Gary Moore’s PORTICELLO is just 1lb shy of that figure and also carries for the ‘small p’ as an indication of potential for further improvement.
That’s not easy to argue against either, Porticello having beaten third home Forever William by nine and a quarter lengths off level weights in the Grade One Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow over Christmas. That’s the same Forever William who finished nine and a quarter lengths adrift of Pied Piper when third last Saturday.
The runner-up from Chepstow, Jane Williams’ Saint Segal, has since won a small race at Warwick in convincing fashion without jumping brilliantly, and I’ve no doubt Porticello is a very strong stayer at the trip having clearly relished the soft ground and undulating track by the River Severn.
Prior to Chepstow the son of Sholokhov – bought out of David Cottin’s yard in France – had successfully conceded weight all round in the Wenslydale at Wetherby on his UK debut and gone down fighting behind the Milton Harris-trained Knight Salute at Doncaster (replay below).
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Doncaster being much more of speed test, certainly in relation to Chepstow, didn’t particularly suit Porticello as he was outpaced after the final flight but it was to his credit that he was ultimately beaten less than a length by an experienced rival having rallied close home.
This horse is building a very nice profile and although the Moores are typically coy around his potential, the last star four-year-old they had in the yard was Goshen – so who could blame them for not wishing to get carried away given what befell him at the Cheltenham Festival.
He’s over-priced whichever way you look at this year’s Triumph and certainly makes most appeal at this point in time around the 16/1 mark.
Published at 1605 GMT on 02/02/22
Recommended Antepost Value Bet archive
1pt win Impervious in Parnell Properties Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt win Mighty Potter in Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 14/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Funambule Sivola in Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
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