We get the views of our experts ahead of Constitution Hill's second start on the Flat at Kempton Park on Wednesday evening.
Moore to keep it clinical on Conrad
(Matt Brocklebank)
Nicky Henderson has made it clear that getting a Flat handicap mark for Constitution Hill is the main priority at the moment and, allowing ourselves to roll on five months or so, I wonder if connections would ideally be looking at the horse topping the weights off a mark somewhere in the region of 112 in the Sky Bet Ebor at York - before a trip to Melbourne which owner Michael Buckley seemed particularly sweet on at one point.
Perhaps that's fanciful. Perhaps it actually underplays this horse's talent. I don't know. We only need look at Ethical Diamond for a very recent example of a jumper turned Group 1 Flat winner and, rated just 143 in the NH world, Willie Mullins' Breeders' Cup hero wouldn't have got near to a peak 'Conrad' in a Champion Hurdle, say.
But we're probably all in danger of getting a little bit ahead of ourselves, and next up it's the dizzy heights of the Virgin Bet Novice Stakes (19:30) at Kempton. The levels of alcohol consumption will no doubt be considerably lower than Southwell's Friday Night Live fixture last month but the interest is heightened once again as this freakish nine-year-old looks to concede weight all round to seven inferiors - on all known form at least.
The one exception could of course be Classical Allusion, who can also boast a 12-furlong Southwell success on his dancecard having made a winning debut there last September. Trained by Andrew Balding, he's likely got a fair bit more to offer at four this season but expecting anything in the way of a proper ding-dong battle with the popular favourite is probably a bit too much to ask.
Constitution Hill is long odds-on to win, and that he should, but a no-nonsense victory compared to the jaw-dropping Southwell romp would come as little surprise. What more can we expect with the wonderfully deadpan Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle for the first time? You can certainly keep your quotes of 15/8 'six lengths or more' as far as I'm concerned.
'He has had a public workout at this track go wrong before...'
(Ben Linfoot)
As odds of 1/6 tell you this is expected to be a cakewalk for Constitution Hill and now everyone has calmed down from the Southwell euphoria we're on the road to finding out just what he might achieve on the level.
I don't think we'll learn too much in the Virgin Bet Novice Stakes on Wednesday night, but we will be closer to him getting an official rating on the Flat and that will ultimately dictate the endgame for this most talked about nine-year-old.
After all, it's hard to see what he can actually achieve on the Flat given quick ground has already been ruled out for him. An Epsom, Royal Ascot or King George bid looks highly unlikely, then, same with the Breeders' Cup, while he's barred from running in the one Group 1 that might've played to his strengths, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, on account of being a gelding.
If you're not thinking top level (and if you are it's probably the Irish St Leger) you're thinking top-end handicaps, but again the Melbourne Cup and Sky Bet Ebor will probably be contested on faster turf, for all that they've both been run on rain-softened ground occasionally.
You know what I'm getting at - just what is the point of this career change - but, of course, even the curmudgeon in me is fascinated to see what happens when a top-class National Hunt horse tries his hand at Flat racing.
The Kempton polytrack and this novice opposition over 1m4f is unlikely to pose too much of a test, but this horse has had a public workout go wrong at this track before, so fingers crossed he takes this race in his stride before we see what he's really made of when stepped up in grade, probably in the Group 3 John Porter at Newbury... ground permitting.
More on Constitution Hill
- Nicky Henderson looks forward to Kempton outing
- Constitution Hill ruled out of Unibet Champion Hurdle
- Owner Michael Buckley 'heartbroken' by decision
- Ian Ogg: 'He has health and new career ahead of him'
- Lewis Tomlinson: Crowds sent into delirium
- Southwell: Full report, reaction and free video replay
- Vicki Gibbins verdict from Friday Night Live
- Timeform hand out big rating of 106P after debut success
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