Ben Linfoot picks out two more horses to add to his 'Weighed In My Stable tracker' and looks at how many runs make the perfect Cheltenham prep.
My Stable Eyecatchers
KATPOLI (Dr Richard Newland)
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There was enough in KATPOLI’s performance at Warwick over 2m4f on Saturday to convince that he’s worth following when he drops back to two miles later in the season.
Dr Richard Newland’s horse has been steadily improving over fences, with two wins from four starts over distances around two miles prior to the weekend, but he was stepped up to the intermediate trip for the first time in his career at Warwick.
Dropped in out the back by Daryl Jacob in an effort to help him get the trip, he made up his ground quite well to get into contention but his effort flattened out in the straight.
However, he was beaten by some much stronger stayers and he was always up against it at a track that doesn’t lend itself to hold-up tactics.
Dropped 1lb to 137 by the handicapper, he still looks well treated when he gets his optimum conditions, namely a strongly-run two miles, and he’s on the radar for handicaps like the Grand Annual and the Red Rum.
A TOI PHIL (Gary Moore)
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A TOI PHIL made a very encouraging start to life for Gary Moore at Newbury on Saturday on his first run since leaving Gordon Elliott’s and he’s one to monitor for the top staying handicap chases.
Rated 159 in his pomp, he’s been put up 2lb to 144 after getting within 11 lengths of Native River in the Denman Chase where he caught the eye with how well he travelled.
He was still in contention jumping the second last and he almost beat Might Bite for third after jumping well throughout, despite this being his first run for five months.
Last season he was fifth in the Pertemps at Cheltenham off a rating of 146, so he’d have to come under consideration for this year's Ultima off a slightly lower mark if pointed there, while he’s also 7lb lower than when he was 12th in last year’s Grand National after the weights were unveiled on Tuesday.
He’s got plenty of winning form on right-handed tracks in Ireland, too, like at Gowran and Thurles, so the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown could well come into play for a trainer who likes taking his horses up the road to Esher.
Wherever he goes, he’s worth keeping an eye on.
Weighed In: My Stable Horses To Follow
- A Toi Phil (added 12/02/2020)
- Deja Vue (added 21/01/2020)
- Deyrann De Carjac (added 03/12/2019)
- Distingo (added 07/01/2020)
- Eldorado Allen (added 04/02/2020)
- Happygolucky (added 19/11/2019)
- Josie Abbing (added 21/01/2020)
- Katpoli (added 12/02/2020)
- Le Breuil (added 10/12/2019)
- Lisp (added 05/11/2019)
- Midnightreferendum (added 12/11/2019)
- Old Rascals (added 05/11/2019)
- Protektorat (added 10/12/2019)
- Riders Onthe Storm (added 07/01/2020)
- Sky Pirate (added 26/11/2019)
- Southfield Stone (added 04/02/2020)
- Stolen Silver (added 07/01/2020)
I’m wary of this little section turning into some sort of therapy session. I shall try and avoid that.
In the ‘Weighed In’ column ‘Finding D’Orhy’ (21/01/2020) Pic D’Orhy was put up as an eyecatcher and was added to The List with a view to him dropping in trip on better ground.
He duly won the Betfair Hurdle at 33/1 on Saturday on said underfoot conditions, after dropping in trip, yet I didn’t tip him and I didn’t back him, but I did watch in horror as my County Hurdle project landed the spoils while the Value Bet headline selection Zanza (66/1 each-way five places) finished sixth.
With that in mind, this is a valid question: What is the point of keeping a list of eyecatchers? Well, for me, it’s just a reminder they are on the radar. After that, it’s a case of judging each race individually.
Which helps explain why I didn’t back Pic D’Orhy on Saturday. He was 2lb wrong, it was a hot renewal, I was hoping for a good run in about, let’s say sixth, with a view to getting him on side in the County.
Clearly, it was a bad decision and now, up 8lb to 152, effectively up 6lb from Saturday, the County Hurdle has become less appealing. There’s even been talk of an unlikely Champion Hurdle bid. We’ll wave goodbye to him with a grimace.
Stolen Silver was put in The List with the Betfair Hurdle in mind and he ran a remarkable race in eighth. I think we should continue to keep an eye on him with a view to him stepping up in trip.
It was a good day for the Weighed In list as One For The Team did what he’s been threatening to do since he was added to the, er, team, back in early December.
I didn’t tip him either, but that was much less galling as he was priced up relatively prohibitively and he hosed up by 14 lengths off his mark of 130. Up to 142 now, I wouldn’t say he’s blown his Pertemps chance but there will be better-handicapped horses in that race.
He’s a lovely prospect for chasing, but he’s gone from the team now he’s done the job, too.
And while we’re at it we’ll get rid of Highest Sun, as well, as he’s gone backwards in recent starts. I’m sure he’s got talent and he could bounce back at some stage, but we had him in as a handicap project and the assessor has only dropped him 1lb to 140.
As for upcoming entries, Deja Vue could run at Sandown on Friday but she was added with a view to a handicap rather than a Grade 2, while Riders On the Storm puts his reputation on the line against Cyrname in the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase on Saturday.
Weighed In Winners
- DORKING BOY (added 05/11/2019), Won 9/2, Taunton (28/11/2019)
- HIGHEST SUN (added 26/11/2019), Won 5/6, Plumpton (16/12/2019)
- LISP (added 05/11/2019), Won 2/13, Plumpton (2/12/2019)
- MAGIC SAINT (added 19/11/2019), Won 3/1, Newbury (30/11/2019)
- ONE FOR THE TEAM (added 03/12/2019), Won 4/1, Newbury (08/02/2020)
- PIC D'ORHY (added 21/01/2020), Won 33/1, Newbury (08/02/2020)
- PROTEKTORAT (added 10/12/2019), Won* 15/2, Cheltenham (01/01/2020)
- STOLEN SILVER (added 07/01/2020, Won 9/2, Haydock 18/01/2020)
Cheltenham Statistical Insight: 3 is the magic number
Last week’s look at the ideal ‘Days Since Last Run’ stats for certain trainers got me thinking – just what is the ideal Cheltenham Festival prep in terms of runs that season?
I think we’d all agree that measuring from May, the official start of the season, to Cheltenham isn’t truly reflective of the season proper, so I started the line at mid-October approximately five months before the Cheltenham Festival.
The below table looks at data from the last 22 years at the Cheltenham Festival and has sections for both ‘all races’ (in gold) and ‘handicaps’ (in light blue).
As you can see three runs from mid-October to Cheltenham has served as the best prep, both in terms of number of winners and strike-rate for both all races and handicaps.
Drilling beneath those numbers for some individual trainer stats is pretty revealing and I’ve handpicked five of the likely top handlers at this season’s Cheltenham to see if they are exponents of the three-run prep…
Top Cheltenham Trainers – Off a 3-run prep at the Festival* – 1997 onwards
- Gordon Elliott 8/48 16.67% (Handicaps only 5/26 19.23%)
- Henry de Bromhead 5/34 14.71% (Handicaps only 2/9 22.22%)
- Willie Mullins 19/148 12.84% (Handicaps only 3/43 6.98%)
- PF Nicholls 14/150 9.33% (Handicaps only 7/77 9.09%)
- Nicky Henderson 15/199 7.54% (Handicaps only 3/102 2.94%)
- *using the 5-month before Cheltenham starts cut-off point
The top Irish trainers are masters of the three-run prep and Gordon Elliott, in particular, is worth following when his Cheltenham runners have had just three runs that season, especially in handicaps.
Those five handicap winners include Diamond King and Carlito Brigante in the Coral Cup at 12/1 and 16/1 respectively and Flaxen Flare and Veneer Of Charm in the Fred Winter at 25/1 and 33/1 respectively, as well.
Of those beaten off a three-run prep he’s had several seconds including Noble Endeavour and Toner D’oudairies at 14/1 and 7/1 respectively, while Cause Of Causes and Glenloe finished runner-up in handicaps, too.
Backing every Elliott runner in a handicap off a three-run prep at the Cheltenham Festival over the years has yielded a profit (£1 to SP) of +£69.50 and considering those near misses all of his qualifiers merit consideration each-way.
Mullins’ most successful Cheltenham prep is three runs as well, in terms of numbers of winners, anyway, although his most successful strike-rate is from horses having zero runs from mid-October to Cheltenham (17/120 14.17%), a stat somewhat boosted by the runs of Quevega who won on her seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham five times.
Henry de Bromhead is another who uses the three-run prep well with five winners at 14.71%. However, there is a word of warning for Notebook backers in the Arkle; he has had four runs since mid-October and De Bromhead is 0/19 with horses off such a prep at Cheltenham in the past.
My Stable - Horse Tracking Made Simple
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