Ben Linfoot looks at trainers to follow over the festive period in this week's column, while adding a couple of eyecatchers to the horses to follow list.
Statistical Insight: Christmas Number Ones
Trainers to look out for during the festive period
It’s the last ‘Weighed In’ before Christmas as I’m off next Tuesday (Christmas shopping, pray for Linfoot) so we’ll sign off for the year with a look at which trainers might prosper over the festive period.
This strikes me as worth looking into for a few reasons.
Firstly, it’s a unique time of year for racing. There are no meetings for four days and then BANG! There are meetings everywhere. The situation could suit a certain type of trainer.
Secondly, there are lots of opportunities in a short space of time. I’m convinced some yards must wait for Christmas as eagerly as youngsters up and down the land and for similar reasons – the love and kindness of their families, sure, but principally lots of lovely presents (in the way of prizemoney).
Thirdly, plenty of you won’t want to be bogged down by form research during the festive period. Following the below trainers offers the option of a shortcut, meaning you can be fully focused on quaffing as much festive ale as you can.
The time period I looked at was from December 26 to December 29 since 1997, as those four days covers the full duration of the Christmas meeting at Leopardstown as well as the plethora of meetings elsewhere in the UK and Ireland including Kempton.
And history says these five trainers are the real kings of Christmas:
- Nicky Henderson (110 wins from 372 at 29.57%, +£110.95)
- Phil Kirby (14 wins from 54 at 25.93%, +£75.25)
- Enda Bolger (9 wins from 28 at 32.14%, +£52.00)
- Nick Williams (13 wins from 50 runners at 26%, +£29.39)
- Nick Alexander (10 wins from 36 runners at 27.78%, +£25.10)
Nicky Henderson
Out of all the training big guns in both the UK and Ireland, none of them celebrates Christmas quite like the master of Seven Barrows, Nicky Henderson.
Willie Mullins’ strike-rate over the same period is 24.81%, Paul Nicholls’ is 19.19% and Gordon Elliott’s is 13.19%. Alan King’s is 15.22%, Jonjo O’Neill’s is 13.84%, Philip Hobbs’ is 13.49% and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ is 12.67%.
So that gives some context around Henderson’s Christmas strike-rate of 29.57 per cent. Of course, he’s good all the time, but his festive record usurps even his overall strike-rate (since 1997 it’s 23%) which tells you it really is the most wonderful time of the year for Henderson.
Backing his horses blind at a £1 Level stake (to SP) would’ve returned a profit of +£110.95 as well, so it’s not as if his winners are confined to those at the very top of the market.
His love of Kempton is clearly a big factor in Henderson’s festive domination; his figures solely at the Kempton Christmas meeting are 57 wins from 185 runners at 30.81% (+£85.83 to SP).
Phil Kirby
With Henderson dominating the battle of the big guns we’ll look among the smaller yards for more festive nuggets and the East Appleton yard of Phil Kirby’s in North Yorkshire could be another to have on your side at Christmas.
Kirby saddled 12/1 winner Agglestone Rock in just his second year with a licence at Sedgefield on Boxing Day 2008 and he landed an across-the-card 659/1 treble on the same day in 2014.
A couple of winners at Wetherby on Boxing Day followed in 2016 and 2017, but it was last year when Kirby really took Christmas by storm with seven winners in the 26th-29th December period, including 33/1 winner Discay.
That’s helped his level-stakes profit reach +£75.25, but with plenty of options at Sedgefield, Catterick, Doncaster and Wetherby over the festive period the Kirby yard could well be worth keeping onside once again.
Enda Bolger
I was hoping the timeframe would throw up an interesting non-Willie Mullins stat from Ireland and it undoubtedly has as Enda Bolger seems to love Christmas more than Elf himself.
The County Limerick handler has a strike-rate of 13 per cent overall for the last five years, but his career strike-rate in the 26th-29th December period is 32.14% and his +£52 level-stakes profit is good even accounting for Auvergnat’s surprise 28/1 success at Leopardstown last year.
It’s at Limerick where Bolger really comes to the party, with victories for Gilgamboa, Love Rory, My Hometown, Drawn N Drank and Federici coming at the track between 2012 and 2014.
A St Stephen’s Day win at Down Royal last year, as well as that Auvergnat victory, suggest his entries are still worth monitoring at Christmas and not just over the banks or Cross Country courses, for once.
Nick Williams
Nick Williams is an intelligent trainer who places his horses well and he often has a good strike-rate wherever you look.
However, his record over the festive period is certainly worth sitting up and taking notice of with his 13 winners at 26 per cent coming at a cluster of tracks that he does well at.
His runners at the Chepstow Welsh Grand National meeting have fared very well, as he’s had four wins from 13 runners there at 30.77%, including a couple of Finale Juvenile Hurdle winners in Me Voici and Le Rocher.
He’s also three from 14 at Kempton, a track he does well at overall (eight from 52 at 15%), while he’s had a couple of winners at Newbury, too.
Nick Alexander
And finally, Scottish handler Nick Alexander is the one to follow in the north this Christmas.
The majority of his 10 winners have come at Kelso, where he’s won seven times from 30 representatives, so he’s clearly worth keeping an eye on at that meeting. He had a double at the track last December 29 thanks to Elvis Mail (10/3) and Calivigny (6/1).
However, if he makes the rare trip down to Wetherby take note, too.
He’s two from two at the West Yorkshire venue over Christmas, with Fearless Foursome’s 2006 victory followed up last year by Lake View Lad’s win at 5/1 in the Rowland Meyrick.
My Stable Eyecatchers
LE BREUIL (Ben Pauling)
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LE BREUIL jumped the Aintree fences like a natural in the Randox Health Becher Chase on Saturday and he’s worth an ante-post bet in the Grand National at 40/1.
The handicapper has dropped him 2lb to 148 following his seventh-place finish and he’s exactly the sort of horse connections of Tiger Roll should fear as their horse will likely have to concede Le Breuil upwards of 20lb in April.
Like Tiger Roll, Le Breuil has won the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival and he’s going to go into the Aintree spectacular with a similar mark to that Gordon Elliott’s horse had the first time he won in Liverpool.
Importantly, this was effectively Le Breuil’s first run of the season, as he was pulled up over hurdles at Wetherby last month and the Ben Pauling yard effectively shut down for November after that.
That’s good enough to explain his relatively weak finish and much more important, with April in mind, was how well he took to the fences – he really didn’t miss a beat.
Pauling has had some bad luck with some high-profile horses in recent years, but he’s a good target trainer as his exploits with Willoughby Court and this horse at the Cheltenham Festival show.
The Gloucestershire handler earmarked the National as this horse’s big target for the season as soon as he passed the post in front at Cheltenham, and with that Becher experience under his belt he’s become a player.
Which horse shaped like a future Grand National contender in today's Becher Chase?
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 7, 2019
"40-1 is quite tempting," says @BenLinfoot #TheFullSP
Ante-post ➡ https://t.co/aYZcdmCmHd pic.twitter.com/PHnFNenI3c
PROTEKTORAT (Dan Skelton)
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There was lots to like about the handicap debut of Dan Skelton’s PROTEKTORAT in the Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday.
Held up off the pace by Harry Skelton, he came off the rail around the turn for home and had nowhere to go behind the Paul Nicholls-trained pair of Ashutor and Malaya.
Malaya got in his way again as he tried to negotiate a gap up the inside and while all this was going on eventual winner Mack The Man had made serene progress towards the head of affairs under Adam Wedge.
Protektorat dug in well once he saw daylight and stayed on well to chase the winner home, more than hinting he has the tools for a good two-mile handicap, certainly while the ground is riding soft.
The 4lb rise he got on Tuesday was fair enough and he has to go in the tracker with the good two-mile handicap hurdles in mind over the next few months.
I’ve no idea if he runs, but he’s in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot on Saturday week, a race Skelton has won a couple of times with Willow’s Saviour and Mohayyed. The top price 16/1 and general 14/1 will look big if he is pointed at that contest.
Weighed In: My Stable Horses To Follow
- Chambard (added 12/11/2019)
- Deyrann De Carjac (added 03/12/2019)
- Happygolucky (added 19/11/2019)
- Highest Sun (added 26/11/2019)
- Highway One O One (added 03/12/2019)
- Le Breuil (added 10/12/2019)
- Lisp (added 05/11/2019)
- Midnightreferendum (added 12/11/2019)
- Old Rascals (added 05/11/2019)
- One For The Team (added 03/12/2019)
- Protektorat (added 10/12/2019)
- Sky Pirate (added 26/11/2019)
Only one runner last week with Happygolucky finishing third in the Grade 2 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown on Friday.
He ran well and his handicap mark of 137 remains unchanged, so we’ll keep him in the list for now. I’d love to see him move up in trip to three miles or thereabouts.
This week quite a few could be out and we start with Chambard at Leicester on Wednesday. He runs in the Holly Handicap Chase and he must have a fine chance off 126. Fingers crossed his jumping has improved since Sandown.
Highest Sun has a couple of potential engagements later in the week including at Cheltenham, while Sky Pirate has options in the Caspian Caviar at Prestbury Park or the bet365.com Handicap Chase at Doncaster.
Midnightreferendum could be a really interesting runner in the mares’ handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday. She’s much better than she showed at Wincanton.
Weighed In Winners
- DORKING BOY (added 05/11/2019), Won 9/2, Taunton (28/11/2019)
- LISP (added 05/11/2019), Won 2/13, Plumpton (2/12/2019)
- MAGIC SAINT (added 19/11/2019), Won 3/1, Newbury (30/11/2019)
My Stable - Horse Tracking Made Simple
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