Weighed In: Finding D'Orhy | Statistical insight and horses to follow
Ben Linfoot picks out three horses to add to his 'Weighed In My Stable tracker' and looks at some stats regarding the use of headgear at the Cheltenham Festival.
My Stable Eyecatchers
PIC D'ORHY (Paul Nicholls)
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Things haven’t gone to plan for PIC D’ORHY since he came over to Paul Nicholls’ from France with a big reputation.
Sent off at 12/1 for the Triumph Hurdle on his British debut last March he finished 10th and he then took a crashing fall at Auteuil on his seasonal reappearance in November.
So it’s reasonable to assume that Saturday’s handicap debut was a fact-finding mission for Nicholls and connections.
Running off 146 at Ascot in the Matchbook Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (2m3f 58yds) on his first run for 69 days, Pic D’Orhy was held up and moved smoothly through the contest, pulling for his head down the back, before tiring into sixth late on.
It was a performance that demanded he drops in trip next time and while he still has the Betfair Hurdle as an option the County Hurdle could well be a more appropriate target.
Nicholls has won the County Hurdle four times in the past, including three times with five-year-olds, and Pic D’Orhy has a similar profile to 2009 winner American Trilogy who bolted up at Cheltenham by 11 lengths having dropped a pound following a heavy defeat over 2m4f at Ascot on his previous run.
The bottom line is Pic D’Orhy remains a horse to be interested in and a 2lb drop to 144 brings the top handicaps into play.
DEJA VUE (Anthony Honeyball)
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Anthony Honeyball remains in tremendous form with his seasonal strike-rate now above 30% thanks in part to seven winners from his last 13 runners in the last few weeks.
DEJA VUE has contributed to his seasonal tally thanks to a couple of wins at Ffos Las earlier in the season but her performance in third at Haydock on Saturday in the concluding Old Boston Handicap Hurdle suggests her winning for the campaign isn’t done yet.
She took on the boys at the weekend in open handicap company and stepped up fully a mile in trip from two to three, but she ran a great race when trying to make all, eventually finishing third despite making mistakes and she was only headed late on.
The handicapper has left her alone on 132 and she’s dangerous off that mark wherever she goes, but taking on mares over 2m4f would make her really interesting.
With the stable in such great nick she’s worth tracking with her next run in mind.
JOSIE ABBING (Christian Williams)
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Shishkin lit up last Wednesday’s meeting at Newbury but later on the card JOSIE ABBING very much caught the eye in division two of the EBM Handicap Hurdle.
Christian Williams’ mare hadn’t shown much at all in two runs for her new stable this season but she’d dropped 6lb to 104 as a result and she travelled noticeably well under Adam Wedge in this contest.
She traded at 2.94 in-running on Betfair before flattening out for an eight-length third but this was much more like it and the handicapper has left her alone on a mark of 104.
This was a 0-120 so there will be easier opportunities for her and it’s worth remembering her trainer had a fruitful February last year, winning four from 15 at 26.67% and landing a few gambles in the process.
The six-year-old daughter of Fame And Glory will have plenty of opportunities at a lower level in the coming weeks and she’s worth tracking in the short term.
Weighed In: My Stable Horses To Follow
- Deja Vue (added 21/01/2020)
- Deyrann De Carjac (added 03/12/2019)
- Distingo (added 07/01/2020)
- Happygolucky (added 19/11/2019)
- Highest Sun (added 26/11/2019)
- Highway One O One (added 03/12/2019)
- Josie Abbing (added 21/01/2020)
- Le Breuil (added 10/12/2019)
- Lisp (added 05/11/2019)
- Midnightreferendum (added 12/11/2019)
- Old Rascals (added 05/11/2019)
- One For The Team (added 03/12/2019)
- Pic D'Orhy (added 21/01/2020)
- Protektorat (added 10/12/2019)
- Riders Onthe Storm (added 07/01/2020)
- Sky Pirate (added 26/11/2019)
- Stolen Silver (added 07/01/2020)
STOLEN SILVER wasted no time in proving his worth for the list when winning the Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday thanks to a last-gasp lunge under Sam Twiston-Davies.
I'm keen to keep him on side as he was originally put up as a potential Betfair Hurdle horse and he's 10/1 from 20s for that race with most firms following Saturday's success, although he will have to shoulder a 5lb penalty at Newbury.
He'll be 2lb wrong if taking his chance in that race as the handicapper only put him up 3lb to 143, but the nature of the race could suit him down to the ground as he's gagging for a strongly-run two miles and the Betfair Hurdle is a furlong further than the race he contested on Saturday.
LE BREUIL ran on into fifth in the Warwick Classic Chase the week before and though I don't think he really enhanced his Grand National claims with that performance the handicapper did see fit to drop him a few more pounds.
For that reason alone he's dead interesting with Aintree in mind given how he took to the fences in the Becher, and he should still get in the race off his revised rating of 145.
On the same card ONE FOR THE TEAM finished third in the Pertemps qualifier. He only went up 2lb to 130 and is worth one more chance as he still looks well handicapped.
As for upcoming entries, LISP, HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, PROTEKTORAT and DISTINGO could all be in action this weekend.
Weighed In Winners
- DORKING BOY (added 05/11/2019), Won 9/2, Taunton (28/11/2019)
- HIGHEST SUN (added 26/11/2019), Won 5/6, Plumpton (16/12/2019)
- LISP (added 05/11/2019), Won 2/13, Plumpton (2/12/2019)
- MAGIC SAINT (added 19/11/2019), Won 3/1, Newbury (30/11/2019)
- PROTEKTORAT (added 10/12/2019), Won* 15/2, Cheltenham (01/01/2020)
- STOLEN SILVER (added 07/01/2020, Won 9/2, Haydock 18/01/2020)
*First past the post and then on appeal!
Statistical Insight: Elliott has headgear edge
In the build-up to Cheltenham this section will concentrate on Festival-based stats and the first aspect I’ve looked at is the use of headgear.
Narrowing the data to 2010 onwards I’ve looked at the last 10 Festivals and there’s a stark difference in results between Ireland’s big two trainers when it comes to horses running in headgear at Cheltenham.
Gordon Elliott has won 17 Festival races with horses wearing headgear from 107 representatives at 15.89%, by far the most successful trainer in the period when it comes to additional accoutrement.
Willie Mullins, on the other hand, is one from 60 at 1.67%, his sole winner being the hood-wearing Arctic Fire in the 2017 County Hurdle.
If you take handicaps out of the equation Willie Mullins is 0 from 29 with headgear-wearing horses while Gordon Elliott is 10 from 46 at 21.74%.
There’s enough evidence there to be very much wary of any Mullins-trained horse wearing headgear at the Festival, while the opposite is true for representatives from the Elliott yard.
A table of selected trainers is below.
When it comes to first-time headgear there is not as much data to go on, but Jonjo O’Neill is worth a mention because of those four winners in the table above two were wearing that particular equipment for the first time.
Holywell won for him at 25/1 in the 2013 Pertemps Final in first-time blinkers, while a year before that Alfie Sherrin was a 14/1 winner of the then JLT Specialty Handicap Chase in first-time cheekpieces.
O’Neill has had a total of 12 horses wearing first-time headgear of some description at the last 10 Cheltenham Festivals.
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