Stolen Silver: Could be one for the Betfair Hurdle

Weighed In: Silver service | Statistical insight and horses to follow

By Ben Linfoot

Horse Racing

Tue January 07, 2020 · 6y ago

Ben Linfoot picks out three horses and five trainers to follow in the coming weeks and he has Betfair Hurdle and Ryanair Chase fancies among them.

My Stable Eyecatchers

DISTINGO (Gary Moore)

Totterdown blew the closing handicap hurdle apart at Sandown on Saturday, going 12 lengths clear down the back straight, and they were well strung out as a consequence.

DISTINGO moved into contention threateningly up the stands’ side late in proceedings, trading at a low of 2.2 in-running on Betfair, before a tired finish saw him beaten just over 12 lengths in fifth.

However, his ability remains and I’m firmly of the opinion he’s not really enjoying this midwinter ground.

Dropped 3lb for Saturday and 5lb in two runs this season, he’s well handicapped now off 127 and is one to get in your trackers, particularly with handicap hurdles on better ground in the spring in mind.

He's in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, a race his trainer has a good record in, but I'm not sure that test will suit given the likely ground and I've one in mind for that in any case...

STOLEN SILVER (Nigel Twiston-Davies)

STOLEN SILVER’s Betfair Hurdle entry is eyebrow raising and it will be fascinating if Nigel Twiston-Davies does go the handicap route with this upwardly mobile five-year-old novice.

He was beaten less than two lengths by Chantry House at Cheltenham in December despite giving him 6lb and I loved the way he fought off Pileon to ensure the runner-up spot up the hill.

Keen enough in front in that race, he might well enjoy the tempo of a big-field handicap and a mark of 140 is clearly at least tempting connections into thinking of having a go at Newbury.

I’ve no idea whether he will be pointed at the race or not, but early quotes of 20/1 look big considering his profile and his stable’s excellent recent record in the contest.

Whether he takes up the entry or not, his progress is worth tracking in the coming weeks and months.

RIDERS ONTHE STORM (Nigel Twiston-Davies)

Looking at the My Stable horses to follow team below it’s lacking an A-lister but RIDERS ONTHE STORM can fill that void.

He has been transformed by Nigel Twiston-Davies and was really impressive in the Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase at Ascot on December 21, running out an easy seven-length winner despite being overly keen in the early stages.

He might’ve pulled his way to the front under Sam Twiston-Davies that day but he still saw his race out well and he jumped beautifully all the way around.

Rated 162 on the back of that, he’s a massive player in the Ryanair and that race looks his only realistic Festival target – unlike plenty of those above him in the antepost market.

Any remaining 14/1 quotes make plenty of appeal.

Weighed In: My Stable Horses To Follow

Deyrann De Carjac (added 03/12/2019)
Distingo (added 07/01/2020)
Happygolucky (added 19/11/2019)
Highest Sun (added 26/11/2019)
Highway One O One (added 03/12/2019)
Le Breuil (added 10/12/2019)
Lisp (added 05/11/2019)
Midnightreferendum (added 12/11/2019)
Old Rascals (added 05/11/2019)
One For The Team (added 03/12/2019)
Protektorat (added 10/12/2019)
Riders Onthe Storm (added 07/01/2020)
Sky Pirate (added 26/11/2019)
Stolen Silver (added 07/01/2020)

There’s been a few runners since the last update and HIGHEST SUN managed to win a two-runner race at Plumpton, qualifying for the track’s bonus if he wins over fences at the Cheltenham Festival in the process.

He’s kept in the list for that reason alone and he may well enhance his claims in the Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick this weekend.

PROTEKTORAT was added to the list in the belief he could win a handicap off 132 but he was first past the post in the Listed Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day before the ridiculous decision to reverse the result.

He’s up to 139 now but he loved the step up in trip and is well worth keeping on side as he’ll get in even better handicaps like the Coral Cup now.

DEYRANN DE CARJAC, HIGHWAY ONE O ONE and MIDNIGHTREFERENDUM all ran well in defeat and are worth sticking with for various reasons.

Midnightreferendum put a poor reappearance at Wincanton behind her when third at Cheltenham and she can win again on better ground, while stablemate Deyrann De Carjac is worth bearing in mind for some of the better spring handicaps.

Highway One O One has crept up a couple of pounds again after his Kempton third, but that was his first go at three miles and it opens up options for him so he’s another I’m reluctant to see fall by the wayside.

SKY PIRATE was on the brink after another bridle monkey display at Doncaster, but he’s worth one last go if Jonjo O’Neill reaches for the headgear when a big pot is on the line, as I’m sure he’s talented.

We wave goodbye to CHAMBARD who had a couple of chances in December. He could be quite well handicapped but his jumping continues to let him down and it concerns me he couldn’t get the job done when the Venetia Williams yard was in such good form.

Finally, our Grand National hope LE BREUIL could run in the Warwick Classic Chase on Saturday, while ONE FOR THE TEAM has an entry in the Pertemps qualifier on the same card as well as an option in a novice hurdle at Kempton.

Weighed In Winners

DORKING BOY (added 05/11/2019), Won 9/2, Taunton (28/11/2019)
HIGHEST SUN (added 26/11/2019), Won 5/6, Plumpton (16/12/2019)
LISP (added 05/11/2019), Won 2/13, Plumpton (2/12/2019)
MAGIC SAINT (added 19/11/2019), Won 3/1, Newbury (30/11/2019)

🌞 Highest Sun (5/6 fav) gets off the mark as a chaser @plumptonraces

📒 He was on @BenLinfoot's 'Weighed In: My Stable Horses To Follow' list...pic.twitter.com/x4ZdZnhqFV
— Sporting Life (@SportingLife) December 16, 2019

Statistical Insight: The Inbetweeners

With the Cheltenham Festival now on the horizon (63 days to go) we’re firmly in the in-limbo period between Christmas and the big show and certain trainers might be worth a follow over the next few months.

The racing is largely of a lesser quality as we build up to March but that gives the slightly smaller yard an opportunity to shine and the quintet I’ve picked out are worth following over the next few months.

In the below table you can see the strike-rates for the handpicked trainers both overall and in handicaps in the months of January and February since they’ve had a licence, with the results up to and including the racing on Monday (January 6).

Trainers to follow in January and February

That takes into account the Saturday wins for Harry Fry and Anthony Honeyball, two Dorset-based trainers who have been in terrific form in recent weeks. History says this might only be the beginning of a fruitful period for them so get them in your trackers.

Christian Williams, Olly Murphy and Henry Oliver have traditionally done well at this time of year, too, and this historical stable form is at least worth bearing in mind when pondering your bets over the next couple of months.

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