Southfield Stone: One to follow

Weighed In: Stone in hand | Statistical insight and horses to follow

By Ben Linfoot

Horse Racing

Tue February 04, 2020 · 6y ago

Ben Linfoot picks out two horses to add to his 'Weighed In My Stable tracker' and looks at some more stats ahead of the Cheltenham Festival.

My Stable Eyecatchers

SOUTHFIELD STONE (Paul Nicholls)

Paul Nicholls won the bet365 Frodon Novices’ Chase at Musselburgh at the weekend, as he did a few years ago with, you guessed it, Frodon.

SOUTHFIELD STONE was his victor this time around and he looks well worth following this spring and beyond at trips around the 2m4f mark.

He broke his duck over fences on his first go over the intermediate distance on Saturday and, though it was only a three-runner race, he did it easily and his liking for better ground makes him of real interest in the months ahead.

He jumped to his left a bit around right-handed Musselburgh, so the return to a left-handed track brings Cheltenham and Aintree into play and his new mark of 144, up 4lb, obviously makes him one to note for the Close Brothers Novices’ Chase.

Priced up at 33/1 for that contest, it’s difficult to find a reason why he wouldn’t go for the race. He’ll definitely get in, he wants to go left-handed and he’d love a bit of spring ground, so he’s worth strong consideration at big odds.

Wherever he goes, though, he’s one to follow this spring.

ELDORADO ALLEN (Colin Tizzard)

ELDORADO ALLEN finished nine lengths off the winner Quel Destin in Saturday’s Betway Contenders Hurdle at Sandown but he ran well for a long way and he’s gagging to be stepped up in trip.

Related to loads of horses that stayed further including Auvergnat, he’s done well to quickly reach a good level over two miles as he should improve again when stepped up in distance.

This was just his fourth run for Colin Tizzard and his trainer considered him a really bright prospect in the early part of last season before an enforced lay-off of over a year intervened.

A good second on his reappearance off 145 in a two-mile handicap hurdle at Sandown, he was the buzz horse for the Betfair Hurdle before Tizzard opted for the Contenders instead.

Last year he used this race as a stepping stone for Vision Des Flos who went onto win the National Spirit Hurdle before taking his place in the Coral Cup field.

It will be interesting if Eldorado Allen is pointed in a similar direction, particularly the Coral Cup, and a drop of 2lb to a mark of 150 makes that race a viable target.

He’s 12/1 with Sky Bet who are non-runner no bet on the race and a best of 25s without the concession.

Weighed In: My Stable Horses To Follow

Deja Vue (added 21/01/2020)
Deyrann De Carjac (added 03/12/2019)
Distingo (added 07/01/2020)
Eldorado Allen (added 04/02/2020)
Happygolucky (added 19/11/2019)
Highest Sun (added 26/11/2019)
Josie Abbing (added 21/01/2020)
Le Breuil (added 10/12/2019)
Lisp (added 05/11/2019)
Midnightreferendum (added 12/11/2019)
Old Rascals (added 05/11/2019)
One For The Team (added 03/12/2019)
Pic D'Orhy (added 21/01/2020)
Protektorat (added 10/12/2019)
Riders Onthe Storm (added 07/01/2020)
Sky Pirate (added 26/11/2019)
Southfield Stone (added 04/02/2020)
Stolen Silver (added 07/01/2020)

We’ve had three runners for the list since the last update and both LISP and PROTEKTORAT are retained. They ran well and remain of interest for the spring, in handicaps in particular.

HIGHWAY ONE O ONE is taken out after being pulled up at Cheltenham. He had plenty in his favour on Trials Day but quickly weakened and he’s become expensive to follow. With the handicapper dropping him just 1lb it’s time to wave goodbye.

As for upcoming entries, JOSIE ABBING could run at Doncaster on Thursday in a Mares’ Handicap Hurdle with Christian Williams potentially stepping her up to the extended 2m3f. She’s of major interest back in against her own sex if she turns up.

ONE FOR THE TEAM is in last chance saloon after a couple of good runs in defeat and he has a few options at Bangor and Newbury this week. It would be nice to see him take up the handicap option back at Newbury instead of the Bangor novice.

HIGHEST SUN was put in the tracker with a view to him contesting some of the better novice handicaps, so hopefully Colin Tizzard gives him the green light for such a race on Super Saturday at Newbury.

And finally we have STOLEN SILVER and maybe even DISTINGO in the Betfair Hurdle. The latter was nominated with a view to him running on better ground later in the spring, but he’s not totally dismissed at a big price considering Gary Moore’s record in the race.

Stolen Silver is 2lb wrong under a 5lb penalty, but we won’t worry too much about that. This race looks tailor-made for him and he has an excellent chance, for all that he’s 9lb worse off at the weights with Thebannerkingrebel.

Recent addition PIC D'ORHY is also still in the Betfair Hurdle, but judging by his price on the Exchange he looks a doubtful runner.

Weighed In Winners

DORKING BOY (added 05/11/2019), Won 9/2, Taunton (28/11/2019)
HIGHEST SUN (added 26/11/2019), Won 5/6, Plumpton (16/12/2019)
LISP (added 05/11/2019), Won 2/13, Plumpton (2/12/2019)
MAGIC SAINT (added 19/11/2019), Won 3/1, Newbury (30/11/2019)
PROTEKTORAT (added 10/12/2019), Won* 15/2, Cheltenham (01/01/2020)
STOLEN SILVER (added 07/01/2020, Won 9/2, Haydock 18/01/2020)

*First past the post and then on appeal!

Statistical Insight: Lay-off lookout

You see the same names crop up when the Cheltenham Festival handicaps are handed out and it’s interesting to note the preferred, or most successful, preparation of certain trainers.

I’ve looked at the ‘Days Since Last Run’ records for the Cheltenham Festival handicaps over the last 20 years and picked out a quartet of current handlers to follow when their handicap hopefuls have had a certain number of days off the track…

David Pipe in Cheltenham Festival handicaps
Off a 43-56 day break: 4/14 28.57%

Pipe has been most successful in Festival handicaps off a month-and-a-half to two-month break, with An Accordian, Buena Vista and Un Temps Pour Tout (twice) winning off such an absence. With the Pipe team in great form this campaign his handicappers will be worth monitoring at the Festival and especially so off this sort of lay-off.

Gordon Elliott in Cheltenham Festival handicaps
Off a 22-28 day break: 4/15 26.67%

Watch out for what Elliott runs three to four weeks before the Festival as that has been a successful lay-off for his handicappers. Cause Of Causes, Champagne Classic, Delta Work and Blow By Blow all won Festival handicaps for him off a 22-28 day break.

Nick Williams in Cheltenham Festival handicaps
Off a 15-21 day break: 2/5 40%

There’s not as much data to go at with Nick Williams as there was Pipe or Elliott, but two of his three Festival handicap winners came off a very similar prep, with both Flying Tiger and Coo Star Sivola winning off a two-to-three-week break.

Dan Skelton in Cheltenham Festival handicaps
Off a 91-150 day break: 2/9 22.22%

Dan Skelton has often adopted a more patient approach with his Festival handicappers and has been rewarded with a couple of County Hurdle winners off three-to-five-month breaks (Superb Story and Ch’tibello). Long House Hall (second in the Coral Cup) and King d’Argent (fourth in the Fred Winter) also ran well off similar breaks, so look out for any Skelton handicappers that have been off the track for 91-150 days.

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