Goodwood tips: Best value bets for Qatar Goodwood Festival on Saturday July 31
Value Bet tips: Saturday July 31
1pt e.w. Show Me Show Me in 1.55 Goodwood at 40/1 (William Hill, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Urban Artist in 2.30 Goodwood at 9/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Justanotherbottle in 3.40 Goodwood at 40/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Major Jumbo in 3.40 Goodwood at 25/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Ryan runners worth close look
There was a bit of a clamour to be drawn high in the Unibet Stewards’ Cup on Thursday morning, the general consensus being that things could get even tackier towards the far rail if more rain hits the course ahead of Saturday’s Goodwood feature.
However, the whole ethos of this column is to try to take advantage of perceived market preference by swimming against the tide, and with that in mind I’m backing MAJOR JUMBO from stall four in the first-time cheekpieces.
With two Wokinghams and four Ayr Gold Cups on the honours board at Hambleton Lodge already, it seems a matter of time before his trainer Kevin Ryan cracks the Stewards’ Cup too and he’s got four chances this year, two of which merit an interest at current odds.
First up, Major Jumbo who looks like he’s been teed up for a big race of this nature all season, running just three times – all under inexperienced, claiming riders – and consequently slipping to what looks an extremely dangerous mark (94), having been rated 107 when a good third to Judicial in the Group Three Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle just last summer.
He was as high as 109 when running in Ten Sovereigns’ July Cup in 2019 so he’s come down a stone in two years despite winning a Listed race during that period. No doubt the grey hasn’t won as often as his ability dictates he really ought to have, but you’ve got to be pretty patient when following these sprint handicappers, who can often just click back into gear given the right circumstances.
Being drawn on the wing will allow Major Jumbo to attack from the front and head for the far rail here and he’ll enjoy the forecast showers. On top of that he now has 'senior' handling again, with the return of Josephine Gordon – the one time she’s partnered the horse in the past he won a York handicap off 102 in October 2018.
Major Jumbo definitely tends to come into his own towards the end of the summer/into the autumn, and the addition of cheekpieces (has worn blinkers the last twice) does look potentially quite significant too, stablemate Hey Jonesy having won the 2020 Wokingham in first-time headgear, and Ryan’s overall record when applying cheekpieces a solid 41-339 (12.09%), backed up by a healthy +45.67 level-stakes profit.
Already advised (14/07/21)
Stablemate JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE is worth backing too right from the bottom of the weights.
He ran in this race twice for previous trainer Declan Carroll, being beaten a short-head by Gifted Master in 2018 and four lengths by Khaadem when fifth the following year. Those efforts came from official ratings of 101 and 97 respectively, while his last four career wins have been achieved from marks of 91, 97, 95 and 96.
He’s back on 94 at present after another 2lb ease for last month’s effort at Newcastle, where he seemed to get upset before the stalls opened.
Sticky starts (rearing as gates open) have crept in over the past couple of seasons which is admittedly a concern for one typically so quickly away, but the single time he’s been on his best behaviour this year he clocked a very good second at Pontefract when trying to concede over a stone to Mondammej, with subsequent Epsom Dash winner Mokaatil and the evergreen Caspian Prince (won twice since, including the Gosforth Park Cup) just behind.
That wasn’t too far off Justanotherbottle’s very best form so he’s still clearly capable on a good day and he’ll relish getting back on turf here, especially with underfoot conditions so favourable.
He skipped last year’s Stewards’ Cup as presumably Ryan and the team were still just getting to know him after two runs for the yard in June 2020, and the ground came up way too fast (good to firm) for him here anyway.
Like Major Jumbo, he’s another switching jockeys, having also been ridden by the inexperienced Oisin McSweeney last time, and his middle draw leaves Shane Gray with little choice but to fly up the centre of the course. Winners have come from all across the track down the years but Lancelot Du Lac scored from Justanotherbottle’s Saturday stall (15) in 2017 and the centre worked out fine for Summerghand (17) last year too, so rather than getting overly concerned with the draw I’ll focus on a couple of experience, well-treated stablemates who handle any ground and are likely to be on the front foot from the off in one of the fastest six-furlong handicaps of the season.
Fahey to strike in consolation race
The pace looks all down the middle in the Unibet Stewards’ Sprint Handicap and Richard Fahey's SHOW ME SHOW ME (also drawn 15) should get a great tow into it under Paddy Mathers.
He’s another who has been a bit of a naughty boy at points but, having won the Brocklesby on his Doncaster debut in 2019, has finally found himself well-handicapped again, which isn’t unusual for a four-year-old sprinter. Decent two-year-olds – he was third to Liberty Beach in the Group Three Molecomb Stakes at this meeting – can struggle at three and Show Me Show Me was no exception, starting off at pattern level and gradually falling in the weights from 101 to 86.
Having slipped another 10lb to 76 he found his level again with a narrow win at Hamilton last month, getting up close home over the stiff five furlongs there.
He failed to back up off 5lb higher in a fast-ground handicap at Newmarket last time but he wasn’t disgraced at all and the return to easier conditions will help this weekend.
If he’s ever going to win over six furlongs it’ll be on a downhill course like Goodwood where the pace collapses in front of him and there’s a realistic chance of that happening, with Power Over Me (12), Able Kane (13), Boundless Power (16) and Mr Wagyu (17) all expected to help force matters on Show Me Show Me’s part of the track.
He's another each-way play at 33/1 and bigger.
Murphy to weave magic on Artist
Bet of the day comes in the Summer Handicap which could serve as a decent trial for the Sky Bet Ebor at York, with URBAN ARTIST making a great deal of appeal.
The last time she ran in handicaps she rattled off an impressive double last year, winning in good style over a mile and a half here before defying an 8lb rise in a similar event at Newmarket.
She's another 11lb higher now but was sent off 15/8 favourite for a 12-furlong Listed race at Pontefract last month and performed pretty well in third on ground too quick for her. She'd previously made a very nice seasonal reappearance when second to Tribal Craft over this trip at York, where she had 105-rated Makawee and 108-rated Mighty Blue behind in third and fourth.
Tom Marquand tried to make the race more of a stamina test last time by setting out to make the running but it still developed into a speed battle and she'll be far happier back up in distance on rain-softened ground.
Oisin Murphy (whose auntie owns the filly) got on really well with Urban Artist last year and is back in the saddle here, while stall four should allow him to get the perfect sit on the heels of the Mark Johnston horses, The Trader and Hochfeld, through the early stages.
It's not unthinkable she'll be favourite come the off so is definitely one to have on side going into the final day.
Published at 1500 BST on 30/07/21
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