Goodwood tips: Best value bets for Qatar Goodwood Festival on Thursday July 29
It's day three of the Qatar Goodwood Festival and fresh on the back of tipping Wednesday winner Last Empire at 20/1, Matt Brocklebank is on the hunt for more value.
Value Bet tips: Thursday July 29
1pt win Dingle in 1.50 Goodwood at 14/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w. Vaynor in 4.10 Goodwood at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4) - NON-RUNNER
Already advised (14/07/21)
High hopes for long-range play in day three feature
Thursday’s Qatar Nassau Stakes will be a fascinating tactical challenge with Lady Bowthorpe and Zeyaadah typically held onto and ridden for luck. Market leader Audarya gets this trip well but is another turn-of-foot horse in the line-up and it’s not too hard to envisage a scenario in which Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori get to play the tune from the front end on Aidan O’Brien stablemates Joan Of Arc and Empress Josephine.
The latter very narrowly emerged on top when they met over a mile in the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh but Joan Of Arc has posted an improved effort upped to this longer distance in the Prix de Diane since and will in all probability try to make all the running around here.
She’s unlikely to be stopping in front and looks a massive threat to all if Moore executes the ride as hoped, but having got her onside in this column antepost then we can comfortably look elsewhere for value on day three at Goodwood.
Hannon to strike again at favourite stomping ground
I’d be slightly surprised if Yibir doesn’t end up at least close to being favourite for the John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes and the current 4/1 is admittedly quite tempting after his Bahrain Trophy romp, but at a bigger price DINGLE merits a bet on his first try at 10 furlongs in the opening Unibet “15 To Go” Kincsem Handicap.
His pedigree suggests he might struggle to fully see it out but the son of Footstepsinthesand has twice shaped like going this far would bring about more improvement and you can just about scrap his second start of the season which came only seven days after a promising third at Newbury.
That comeback effort over seven furlongs has worked out pretty well, winner Mithras was competing off 90 at the time and was later sixth off 98 in the Britannia when last seen having been tried at Listed level, while runner-up Saint Lawrence has since finished second to Rohaan in the Group Three Pavillion Stakes at Ascot.
Dingle, beaten a neck and two lengths, might have finished a bit closer had the latter not cut across him late on at Newbury and, after a 76-day layoff following the relatively weak effort at Sandown, it was good to see him back on song against older horses at Newmarket last time.
Again quite well supported earlier in the day (though eased from 9/2 to 7/1 in the show), Dingle wasn’t great at the start but travelled up well in a prominent position before being outpaced then running on again approaching the line to finish a close sixth. He ran a little bit like the outing might bring him on again physically and getting back against three-year-olds gives him an excellent chance if he does genuinely stay the trip.
Mark Johnston’s 107-rated Naamoos – all-the-way winner of the aforementioned Sandown event - keeps three of them at the bottom out of the handicap proper here, but Richard Hannon’s horse gets in neatly on 8st 1lb under go-to lightweight jockey Jimmy Quinn and the ground won’t be an issue as he showed up quite well on debut on soft last year in a hot HQ July Course maiden won by Youth Spirit (Naval Crown and Yibir contested the same race).
Hannon was on the mark here on Wednesday and always merits plenty of respect at the yard's favourite meeting.
Hills' handicap newcomer worth each-way dart
Not many 68-rated horses crop up in televised handicaps these days but VAYNOR does appear to have been underestimated – by the BHA assessors and betting market alike - ahead of the Goodwood Racecourse Patrons Nursery Handicap.
Following all Charlie Hills’ juveniles ridden by Silvestre De Sousa would have produced a small profit down the years and he’s booked for this Mastercraftsman colt, who has also fared well with a low draw in stall four.
He’s obviously not cut much ice in three starts to date but was admittedly totally out of his depth (50/1) in a Haydock novice race won by Mr McCann at Haydock last time, and he hadn’t shaped too badly at all on his first two outings, the second of which was also at Haydock on pretty lively ground. He looked a bit happier on an easier surface when not at all disgraced on his Newmarket debut at the end of May and the first three home that day are now rated 81, 85 and 78.
Vaynor gets in here off a very lowly perch and is bred to do much better in time, being a half-brother to three winners. His dam is from the family of French champion Sarafina and with his owners having loads of runners here over the years (183 - more than any other track) there’s a chance Hills has had half an eye on this event in the programme book for a little while.
He looks a lively each-way prospect and is backed accordingly.
Published at 1600 BST on 28/07/21
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