Tony McFadden provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Saturday.
Three points of interest
L'Homme Presse stands out on ratings in the Cotswold Chase
There are a few horses with outstanding form claims at Cheltenham on Saturday, most notably Constitution Hill whose Timeform master rating of 177 has been bettered by only five two-mile hurdlers in Timeform's experience.
He's going to be an incredibly short-price favourite for the International Hurdle (15:00) so the vast majority of punters will be content to sit and watch him take the next step on the path to the Champion Hurdle, but a few more might be tempted by L'Homme Presse at just a shade of odds-on in the preceding Cotswold Chase (14:25).
L'Homme Presse is the highest-rated of the six runners and is also favoured by the conditions of the race which mean he receives 6 lb from Gentlemansgame and 4 lb from Stage Star. That has resulted in L'Homme Presse topping Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings by at least 8 lb.
L'Homme Presse raced only three times last season, but he still produced a top-class performance by Timeform's reckoning when convincingly beating subsequent Ryanair Chase winner Protektorat, with the pair well clear of the remainder, in the Fleur de Lys Chase at Lingfield.
He wasn't at that level when beaten around 12 lengths in third in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on his recent seasonal reappearance, but that was still an encouraging return to action and he has a number of efforts on his CV which suggest he's very much the one to beat in these calmer waters.
From a ratings viewpoint, it's also worth pointing out that East India Dock, the highest-rated juvenile hurdler in Britain or Ireland this season, bids to enhance his Triumph Hurdle claims in the trial (13:15).
East India Dock has a Timeform rating of 144p which is 8 lb higher than the next highest-rated juvenile in Britain or Ireland this season, Hello Neighbour (136p), and he's 12 lb higher than his closest rival in Saturday's contest. He is understandably also a short-price favourite.
Kerry Lee bidding to enhance fine Uttoxeter record
Since the start of the 2019/20 season Kerry Lee has operated at a strike rate of 17.1% in British jumps races, but she has fared better at Uttoxeter where her winners have come at an impressive 23.3%.
Focusing on trainers who have had at least 20 runners at Uttoxeter in that timeframe, only Lucy Wadham has a higher strike rate, while Lee's profit of £45.83 to £1 level stakes places her behind only Jake Thomas Coulson by that metric - and that's because his sole winner at the track returned at 100/1.
Lee has had 14 winners at Uttoxeter in that time, and the only track where she has had more is Hereford with 18. She has four chances on Saturday to add to her Uttoxeter tally, including with a couple who head Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings.
Ballybegg hasn't been at his best over hurdles this season but is back over fences in the two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase (15:07) and is able to compete off the same mark he easily defied at Ludlow in January.
In the following three-and-a-quarter-mile novice handicap chase (15:42), Atlanta Brave takes a significant drop in grade after contesting the Welsh Grand National last month. He is just 1 lb higher than when beaten only three quarters of a length at Newbury last season so is clearly fairly treated. He also ran well here on his penultimate start when not beaten far in fourth and he has Timeform's Horses For Courses Flag to highlight his effectiveness at this type of track.
Punctuation an interesting recruit for Henderson
Punctuation was below his best in three starts over hurdles last season but he has been cut some slack by the handicapper so looks well treated in the concluding handicap hurdle (15:50) at Doncaster on his reappearance and first start for Nicky Henderson.
Punctuation progressed well for Fergal O'Brien and won three times during the 2022/23 campaign, most significantly in the conditional and amateur jockeys' handicap hurdle at Aintree's Grand National Festival. And the form Punctuation showed in that competitive Aintree handicap places him 4 lb clear on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings at Doncaster.
Punctuation, who was successful on the Flat at Goodwood in May on his final appearance for O'Brien, starts out for Henderson with the yard in good form as since last Saturday the stable has had six winners from 23 runners at a 26% strike rate.
Henderson has also fared well with recruits and since the start of the 2019/20 season he's had four winners from 16 representatives (at a 25% strike rate) with horses starting out in handicaps for the yard. A further five were placed.
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