The Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase has certainly proved a good fit for Cheltenham's Festival Trials Day card as the race has repeatedly been used as a springboard to a bold showing in March.
Three of the last ten winners of the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase who went on to run at that year's Festival won in March, while another four were placed. That level of success is even more impressive when you consider that the race perhaps considered the most natural Festival target - the novice handicap chase - was removed from the running order following the 2020 edition.
That renewal was won by Imperial Aura, who went one place better than in what proved to be an especially strong edition of the Timeform. Imperial Aura had chased home Simply The Betts who also went on to score at that year's Festival, landing the Festival Plate against more experienced handicap chasers.
The Trials Day card was cancelled due to waterlogging in 2021, but in 2022 Imperial Alcazar - carrying the same silks as Imperial Aura - won the Timeform before finishing runner-up in the Plate.
In 2023 Stage Star followed up a comprehensive win in the Timeform with victory in the Grade 1 two-and-a-half-mile novice chase, while his stablemate Ginny's Destiny went close to completing the same double at last year's Festival but was denied by Britain's leading novice chaser Grey Dawning. There was still a Festival winner who graduated from the Timeform last year, though, as Unexpected Party bounced back from a disappointing effort on Trials Day to land the Grand Annual.
A further tweak to the Festival running order means that the Grade 1 two-and-a-half-mile novice chase has been scrapped, but the novice handicap chase is back on the programme. Mister Whitaker completed the Trials Day and Festival novice handicap chase double in 2018.
So what have recent winners of the Timeform novice handicap chase had in common?
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the race tends to provide such a strong piece of form, most of the trends point towards wanting a progressive, unexposed sort with the potential to prove a long way ahead of their mark.
Key trends
- Nine of the last ten winners had won or finished second last time out
- Eight of the last ten winners had run no more than three times over fences
- Eight of the last ten winners were aged six or seven
- Seven of the last ten winners still had the Timeform small 'p' to show they were likely improvers
Whistle Stop Tour, a winner on two of his three starts over fences, is the best match based on the above trends, though Jagwar and Billytherealbigred, who both represent Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero, also tick most of those boxes and are perhaps the pair with the strongest claims at the weights.
Billytherealbigred is only a five-year-old but that's unlikely to be a negative. Only a couple of five-year-olds have competed in this race in the last decade, and the key takeaway from the age trend is to be wary of older horses with less potential for improvement.
Jagwar was only third at Uttoxeter last time but he would have finished runner-up to a subsequent Grade 2 winner had he not made a bad mistake at the last. It's likely he would have improved on the form of his wins at Wetherby and Bangor had he jumped the last cleanly, so he is worth treating as if in form and looks the one to beat. It certainly wouldn't be difficult to see a horse with his progressive profile developing into a leading contender for a Cheltenham Festival handicap.
Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings
- 156p Jagwar
- 155p Billytherealbigred
- 152 Masaccio
- 150p Whistle Stop Tour
- 150 Guard Your Dreams
- 148 Resplendent Grey
- 147 Ryan's Rocket
- ? Walking On Air
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
