It's a big weekend and Matt Brocklebank has five Saturday bets for Haydock and Ascot as he looks to highlight the pick of the value.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, September 4
1pt win Contact in 2.20 Haydock at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Stay Well in 3.10 Ascot at 11/1 (General)
1pt win Emaraaty Ana without Starman in 3.30 Haydock at 8/1 (bet365)
1pt win Silver Samurai in 3.45 Ascot at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Get It in 4.05 Haydock at 12/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Ana slightly overlooked in race for second
Finding a bet against Starman in Saturday’s Betfair Sprint Cup looks a bit of a thankless task providing a return to quick ground helps Ed Walker's July Cup winner rediscover his best.
If you're taking him on in the win market then you’re effectively banking on last month's relatively tame finishing effort in the Prix Maurice de Gheest being more indicative of a backward step in his general wellbeing, rather than anything to do with the poached Deauville ground, but I'm not convinced by that line of thinking at all.
Heading past the furlong marker he looked the best horse in the race and it’s only those crucial last 100 yards or so that really caught him out on the day.
So I’d expect normal service to be resumed when it comes to Starman, but the race for second could be extremely interesting and although Friday support saw his price contract, there's still mileage in backing Kevin Ryan's EMARAATY ANA without the favourite.
The layers are presumably of the view that his Nunthorpe second to Winter Power 15 days ago was a flash in the pan but we already knew he was right back on song in light of a deadly Hamilton win at the end of July so that looks a bit of a red herring, while he didn't exactly enjoy the smoothest of passages when beaten five lengths by Starman at Newmarket the time before.
He wasn't alone in suffering a rough July Cup trip and he was beaten even further by the favourite in the Duke of York at the Dante Festival earlier in the year, but he just looks to have turned a corner recently following a rather extended spell out in the wilderness.
Emaraaty Ana has always had the class to compete at Group level, right back to his juvenile days when winning the 2018 Gimcrack, and it shouldn't come as a huge shock to see dab hand Ryan sweetening up a maturing sprinter as he has done on countless occasions before now.
Likely to be held onto and ridden for luck as he goes back up to six furlongs this weekend, a middle draw looks ideal right next to Glen Shiel and the freewheeling Nando Parrado, so there shouldn't be too many excuses on ground he likes, and a similar effort to the one he produced in the Nunthorpe could well be enough to see him emerge as best of the rest.
Make Contact with Barron three-year-old
Not many in the Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap hold secrets from the assessor and it’s no shock to see the two four-year-olds, Global Storm and Noble Masquerade, topping the betting.
Rajinsky didn’t do a whole lot wrong when bumping into the well-treated Arcadian Sunrise over two miles at York but he could have done without the subsequent 2lb rise as he’s never been particularly easy to win with.
The Trader – drawn one and now 2lb below his winning mark from Hamilton in May - came close to making the staking plan as the Mark Johnston horses may hold a tactical advantage here, but preference is for a dart at the “My Odds Boost” On Betfair Handicap.
Vino Victrix and Valley Forge are looking to complete hat-tricks and Roger Varian’s Praiano gets to run off the same mark as when a little unlucky at Sandown last time, but the value lies elsewhere and a chance is taken on CONTACT.
His last three runs on good or good to firm ground have all ended in victory and the going was pretty tough when only fifth over this course and distance at the beginning of July. He’s since run a perfectly respectable race when plugging on from the back for fourth over a mile and a half at the Shergar Cup meeting, suggesting he’s still in good heart.
He’s been eased another pound for that run so is 6lb higher than when thrashing older rivals at Pontefract three starts back and with conditions in his favour David Barron’s charge looks the underestimated one in the race.
Cox to coax best out of unexposed sprinter
The ITV cameras may have stopped rolling by the time of the Betfair Be Friendly Handicap but I can’t let Clive Cox’s GET IT go unbacked at double-figure prices.
This horse has loads of ground to make up on the reopposing Be Proud (might not run as he was declared on Friday too) based on their form a fortnight ago but the selection was drawn out wide in 10, which is never easy to overcome on the five-furlong track at Sandown.
Get It was also encountering easy ground for the first time so I’m willing to strike a line through the bare form and, based on his previous thirds here at Haydock and at Doncaster last month, a 2lb drop in the weights may prove generous.
He’s still far from exposed in handicap company, this just his fourth try, and I’m convinced the in-form Cox will find the key at some point soon. The return to quick ground will definitely help and it’s not hard to see Hollie Doyle taking the bull by the horns on a colt who has enjoyed his better days when racing up with the pace.
Silver service for Botti and Hogan
Down at Ascot the best bet comes in the Careys Foundation Supporting The Lighthouse Club Handicap where SILVER SAMURAI still looks potentially ahead of his mark.
Following a winter gelding operation, Marco Botti's grey ran two really promising races on the polytrack at Kempton in the spring and looked to find the rain-softened ground against him when switched back to turf in May, firstly when beaten over six lengths at Chester (good to soft) and when making no impact at all from off the pace at Haydock (heavy) subsequently.
The fitting of a hood, combined with getting back on decent ground, worked wonders as he scythed through the field to win going away under Marco Ghiani at Doncaster in June 26, and it was good to see him get back on the right track at Newbury last time following an inexplicable flop when favourite at Newmarket’s July course in between.
Newbury didn’t exactly go to plan either, William Buick restraining his keen-going mount early on and appearing all dressed up with nowhere to go two out as the field fanned out from single file.
The winner Aratus, who followed up off 4lb higher at Goodwood’s big meeting last month and now commands a mark of 102, was much too good in truth, but Silver Samurai could have finished a good bit closer with a better shot at him and it looks a piece of form to follow with runner-up Sunset Bay evidently on a steep upward curve as well (gone from 74 to 92 since mid-June).
Silver Samurai gets another chance off the same mark of 87, just 4lb higher than for the Town Moor triumph, and while the projected modest early gallop won’t necessarily be to his liking, the stiff seven furlongs here will hopefully bring out the best in him as he’s proven over further from his three-year-old days.
Dylan Hogan comes in for the ride for the first time and although his Redcar winner last weekend saw the jockey lose his claim, he's got a good record (6-30) for Botti yard and is backed to hold his own off level terms with the senior riders.
Stay Well to live up to his name
Earlier on the same card, STAY WELL looks to have a better chance than his odds imply in the Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap).
There were murmurings of a possible Derby bid for this horse after appearing to follow in the hoofprints – to some extent, anyway – of stablemate Telecaster by winning easily at Windsor on his seasonable reappearance in April, but that fire was extinguished quite swiftly in the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood a month later.
You can understand why trainer Hughie Morrison wanted to test him in a trial of some description, given the manner of the comeback win, but it’s taken a while to get him on an even keel again and he was never up to Classic standard anyway as it turns out.
Winning a valuable Saturday handicap off 89 doesn’t look beyond the colt, though, especially as he’s so unexposed at the trip. Following two limp efforts on soft ground and a Sandown fourth when effectively outsprinted late on over 10 furlongs, his first run at a mile and a half brought about a cosy victory at Salisbury last month.
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There was lots to like about the way he did it there, the son of Iffraaj not doing a lot once getting to the front (out of a Sea The Stars mare, which may help explain that particular trait), and a 3lb rise might underestimate him.
Morrison has also been in superb form lately, leaving poor strike-rates in May, June and July well behind with a really impressive tally (12-35, 34%) throughout August, so the fact Stay Well finished well adrift of Irish Legend and Alfaadhel at the Royal meeting here in June probably shouldn’t be read into too literally.
Published at 1600 BST on 03/09/21
TV schedule & race times
- When & Where: 1.45, 2.20, 2.55, 3.30 Haydock, 2.05, 2.40 Kempton, 3.10, 3.45 Ascot
- TV: ITV1, Racing TV (Sky channel 426), Sky Sports Racing (Sky channel 415)
