Saturday analysis: Key questions after Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham

Did we really learn anything from the Unibet Hurdle?

Ah, Sir Gino. Fingers are firmly crossed for him. The good news is he walked into the horse ambulance, but it’s the flimsiest of silver linings after a potential star of the sport goes wrong like that on the biggest stage.

Nicky Henderson says it’s likely a pelvic injury and that there can be little ones and big ones. Let’s hope the scans reveal it’s a little one.

Aside from that, the Unibet Hurdle was run at a crawl, a world away from what it will be like in the Champion Hurdle.

Nemean Lion pinched easy lengths at the start and he was still in front at the last, eight days on from finishing fourth of five over 2m4f at Windsor.

So the bare form of The New Lion’s win is clearly nothing to get excited about. But there were plenty of positives for him.

First and foremost, he hurdled well. He was slick and quick and put in a clear round, showing no signs of loss of confidence following his Newcastle tumble.

Harry Skelton educated him in that regard and made him work no harder than required. If he is to win a Champion Hurdle he had to pick up Nemean Lion after the last, despite that horse getting the run of the race, and he did, under hands and heels riding.

We know a stronger gallop at this trip in the Champion Hurdle will suit him.

Despite Sir Gino’s troubles, The New Lion is not the new Champion Hurdle favourite. That honour goes to Lossiemouth at 5/2 with The New Lion 3/1.

But ignore the bare form from the Unibet Hurdle. The most important thing for The New Lion was his jumping.

He’s bounced back from the Fighting Fifth and, in unfortunate circumstances, he’s the clear British number one.

Is that it as far as Grey Dawning’s Gold Cup hopes are concerned?

No. I don’t think so. But one key question mark remains.

Obviously he hasn’t enhanced his claims, but Dan Skelton has been targeting the Cheltenham Gold Cup with him all year and this was his second race of the season with a view to peaking in March.

You could tell Skelton was torn over whether to run Grey Dawning in the Cotswold Chase. He didn’t want to bottom him with March in mind – and he didn’t.

Ridden like it was a trial, Harry Skelton tried to let him find a natural rhythm towards the rear as L’Homme Presse cut out the running up front and the slow tempo didn’t really suit on the day.

Even so, he was still in there with a chance until the second last where a bone rattling error completely took the stuffing out of him. Race over.

Skelton looked after him after that and he was beaten five lengths by the winner, Spillane’s Tower, while giving him 6lb.

So, if you fancied him before for the Gold Cup, at 12/1, I wouldn’t put you off topping up at bigger prices including as big as 25s.

For me the same question mark remains. Can he win a Gold Cup ridden cold as the rhythm horses get away from him towards the front end?

He couldn’t in the four-runner trial. But he remains a fascinating contender for the big one.

As for Spillane’s Tower, it was great to see him bounce back. He relished the Cotswold test, but if he’s to become the first winner of the trial to win the Gold Cup since Looks Like Trouble in 2000 you feel he’ll need the wettest of springs to have a chance.

Has Emma Lavelle unearthed another Stayers’ star?

Hasn't she just?

Ma Shantou took his Cheltenham record to three from three with a power-packed win over Impose Toi in the Pertemps Network Cleeve Hurdle and he’s one of those stayers that has progressed through handicaps to compete at the very top.

Just like the same stable’s Paisley Park.

Paisley Park won a Haydock handicap off 147 before he dominated the staying hurdle scene and Ma Shantou won Cheltenham handicaps off 129 and 138 before this clear career-best Cleeve success today.

He’ll be rated in the high 150s after this and that doesn’t leave him much to find with the 164-rated Teahupoo with the prospect of even more to come.

It’s no wonder he’s 8/1 from 50s for the Stayers’, with Impose Toi out to 14s.

That latter price might be a little knee jerk. He didn’t finish his race well, but he did have to concede 6lb to the winner and better ground would suit him in March.

In an open division he’s not out of it, even if Ma Shantou is now very much in it.

What do we take from the Triumph trial?

Plenty to like about Maestro Conti who looked to simply outclass his rivals under a confident Harry Skelton.

Connections believe he’s a stayer for the future, but for now he looks to have plenty of pace relative to his juvenile contemporaries.

He was keen here under Skelton, which might’ve been a problem in ground the jockey described as ‘just worse than soft’, but he was held onto enough to wear down long-time leader One Horse Town who was still three lengths ahead at the last.

Maestro Conti showed a swift turn of foot and a good attitude to get up the inside of his rival up the stands’ rail, and with Cheltenham form now in the bank he has enhanced his Triumph Hurdle claims.

We also have to acknowledge Adam Nicol’s Minella Study, at this juncture, however, especially given he is twice the price of Maestro Conti in the Triumph betting.

His Triumph Trial form from the December Meeting has already been boosted by Winston Junior at Ascot and One Horse Town, almost 10 lengths behind Minella Study in the same race, got much closer to Maestro Conti here (beaten two lengths) giving him a couple of pounds.

Conditions were very different today and you feel Skelton looked after Maestro Conti in victory, but it’s hard to argue with Nicol’s feeling that he is overpriced in the Triumph betting.

Did any handicappers catch the eye?

With no horse rated 140+ in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase for the first time in 16 years it might not be the pointer it usually is to the Cheltenham Festival.

However, it still attracted a double-handful of progressive types rated in the 120s and 130s and quite a few of them were undone by what looked a relatively steady gallop as Conor O’Farrell slowed the pace down up front on Scorsese.

Very little got into things from off the pace, favouring the prominent racers, namely the second and third home, Quebecois and Scorsese, respectively, the runner-up jumping notably better up front in softer ground.

The winner, Jordans Cross, needs marking up for getting the win from off the pace, then, with Anthony Honeyball eyeing the Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, though that will be a deeply more competitive affair.

Those undone by the gallop included Nicky Henderson’s Califet En Vol, who was held up in the rear, made a few fiddly mistakes, then made a sweeping move out wide to get into contention only to weaken into fifth late on.

He needs keeping an eye on, as does Barlovento, who was held up in last under Sean Bowen and was most inconvenienced by how this was run.

In the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase Donnacha worried Jagwar out of things with a game victory although your eye couldn’t help but be drawn to the runner-up.

It looks like defeat here rules the Ryanair out of things and he probably wants stepping up in trip now which brings the Ultima into contention.

He’s a fine big horse but isn’t straightforward and his reputation often sees him over-bet for all that he’s a talented individual.

Javert Allen dead-heated for third after a fine display of jumping on the front end and he has a good handicap him in him, perhaps on a track with a less stiff finish, like Newbury or Aintree or something.

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