Grand National tips: Phil Turner Aintree shortlist and horses to follow
The Timeform expert and Aintree veteran shares the three horses currently on his shortlist for the 2024 Randox Grand National.
Mission more than possible...
Mahler Mission was the horse which ticked the most boxes for me when the weights were announced back in February and I’m keeping the faith even though plenty of others have advertised their claims in the meantime.
A sound jumper who usually races handily, he looks to possess the necessary blend of speed and stamina to thrive when faced with Aintree’s unique test, whilst the fact he’s also very much in the mix from a handicapping viewpoint is clearly a plus too.
Indeed, his second place to the ill-fated Datsalrightgino at Newbury when last seen in December represents very strong form – Shakem Up’Arry and GA Law have both emerged from the pack to land valuable prizes since the turn of the year – and he looks overpriced at current odds of 16/1.
Meeting of minds
Novices have won two of the last seven renewals, which illustrates the changing shape of the Grand National since its famous fences were modified for safety reasons in 2013.
It looks as though Meetingofthewaters will be the only novice in the line-up this time around and he’s also the only runner with a Timeform “p” attached to his rating – One For Arthur was the only “p” runner in the field when winning in 2017, whilst his stable-companion Corach Rambler was one of only two runners who had that symbol attached in last year’s edition.
Ironically, Meetingofthewaters amassed plenty of experience for his previous connections (successful in points/bumper/handicap hurdle) and it clearly wasn’t lost on him either, looking a seasoned pro when landing the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December on just his fourth chase start.
He again coped admirably well with the demands of a big-field staying handicap chase when an eye-catching third in the Ultima at Cheltenham last time and, still early into his career with the all-conquering Willie Mullins yard, he looks open to further improvement as his stamina is drawn out more.
In fact, I expect his current odds of 14/1 to contract as the race draws closer, particularly if he’s the choice of retained jockey Mark Walsh from JP McManus’ strong team.
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Some major Work still to be done?
Mahler Mission and Meetingofthewaters will hopefully have long careers ahead of them. The same cannot be said for the eleven-year-old Delta Work, who’ll presumably be heading into retirement sooner rather than later.
In truth, the law of averages suggest that Delta Work has probably missed his best chance of landing Aintree’s showpiece event – he was third in 2022 and then unseated after slithering on landing at the twentieth when well fancied for last year’s renewal – but current odds of 33/1 seem awfully big for one with so many Grade 1 wins on his CV and that sort of price will surely disappear quickly should Jack Kennedy remain loyal to him from Gordon Elliott’s numerous possible runners.
In addition, Delta Work will be better equipped than most to cope should the current wet weather result in a thorough test of stamina in attritional conditions on April 13th, so he looks worth keeping on side for now.
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