Grand National tips: David Massey Aintree shortlist and horses to follow
Our Punting Pointers guru underlines the three horses currently on his shortlist for the Randox Grand National at Aintree.
Roi Mage (Patrick Griffin)
Rory sez that he’s done with horses that ran well in previous Nationals, which is often the default setting that he (and indeed, many of us, if we’re honest) would use as a start point when looking at the race, but I think in doing so he’s missing a trick with Roi Mage, who looks a big price at 66s to me when you look at his run in the race last year.
He took to the fences like a duck to water (which, on current forecasts, might be handy next week), jumping well and travelling into the contest like a good ‘un, bang there two out before the petrol tanks ran dry late and he dropped to seventh on the run-in, beaten 13½ lengths.
So why should he do any better this time around?
Well, he’s a couple of pounds lower in the weights this year, which can only help, he handles heavy ground no problem, having won a Cross-Country in deep ground at Compiegne last winter, and he’s going to get one of those lovely, patient, James Reveley rides out the back for much of the race, and that might just help eke out his suspect stamina.
He ran a smashing prep race in finishing a staying-on second at Down Royal last time, and although at the age of twelve he’s arguably a year or two too old for a National, next week’s event will be no ordinary National, more a case of what-can-keep-going, and Roi Mage will be high on my lists for bets like Top 10 finishes and the like.
Minella Indo (Henry De Bromhead)
Do you ever lose your class?
Speaking as someone brought up in Ashbourne, slap bang in the middle of the mean streets of the, er, Derbyshire Dales, I can truthfully say I’m as classy as I ever was, which wasn’t much to begin with, but when it comes to judging how much of it Minella Indo has left, it's a trickier matter.
The 2021 Gold Cup winner and 2022 runner-up, his career since then can best be described as patchy, pulling up a little too often for comfort and looking like something might have been amiss, but in between, some perfectly solid efforts, including on his debut this season when successful in a Grade 3 chase at Punchestown.
He actually managed to put three relatively quick runs together in the autumn and early winter, and he took well enough to the Cross-Country fences at Cheltenham to make you think he’ll be fine around Aintree. Some were disappointed with his finishing effort at Cheltenham that day, as he moved up looking the winner on the home turn, only to fade to fourth late. A quick spin through my notes for the day, though, says: “Minella Indo still looked in need of the run” and so I’m happy enough with how it panned out.
What two of his three runs show this winter is that he’s still got a fair amount of that back-class, and a mark of 159 reflects where we are with him now. He’ll be fine under the conditions - on ground described by Timeform as heavy, he’s 2-2 in his career, and the likely slower pace next Saturday can only be a plus.
Malina Girl (Gavin Cromwell)
The ground has come right for Just So, so he’s going to be my third selection….ha ha, I joke of course. One for the teenagers there. For those of you that weren’t from a time when Ace Of Base were top of the hit parade, I suggest you go to that there YouTube and have a look at Minnehoma’s 1994 Grand National win. Just So, or Just Slow, as his fan club knew him, had his moment in the sun in finishing second, half-declining the invitation to cop the lot on the run-in after somehow getting outpaced after four miles on heavy ground two from home. With all the speed of an oil tanker, what a wonderful horse he was.
Anyway, I digress. The case for Malina Girl is simple enough. After her Ulster Grand National win in heavy ground at Downpatrick around this time last year, she looked a stayer to follow and her early-season for this time around did nothing to dissuade me otherwise. She absolutely romped home over 3m3f at Cheltenham back in November and looked very much like she’d have taken a hand in the finish back at Prestbury a month later but for falling three from home when still on the bridle.
Since then though, not so good. A huge weight was to blame for her poor effort in the Classic at Warwick, said her trainer, and although it was a better effort in a mares' chase at Exeter a month later, it was still some way below her best form.
She went off a somewhat surprising favourite for a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown over a trip well short of her best, but this test should play to her strengths much more. She needs a few to come out to get a run, but if she can recapture the early season form, she'd be no back number here.
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