Queen Mary Stakes and Windsor Castle Stakes previews: Dan Briden Royal Ascot tips

The Queen Mary Stakes brings together the usual mixture of proven form and potential from novice/maiden winners.

Karl Burke saddled Venetian Sun to win the Albany Stakes 12 months off the back of an impressive debut success at Carlisle and bids to do the same with Wild Blossom here. She was driven right out to score by 10 lengths, albeit in a fairly average time. Understandably, given the style of that success, James Doyle sticks with her.

However, the neglected Alta Regina looks no back number. She looked far from the finished article when making a winning start on the turf course at Lingfield last month, but the manner in which she drew away under minimal assistance inside the final furlong marked her down as a serious prospect. There is little doubt that a sixth furlong will suit before long, but the stiff nature of this course ought to play to her strengths, and she should be right in the thick of things.

Simon and Ed Crisford’s Senorita Bonita only won by a short-head on debut in a race at Nottingham that produced the winner in 2023, but that doesn’t begin to tell the story. She was slightly awkward from the stalls and then got pushed left after 200 yards, waited with until manoeuvred to the centre of the track to challenge over a furlong out. She still had plenty to do as the leader made her bid but quickened smartly and sustained her challenge to lead in the final stride.

A 900,000gns breeze up purchase, Senoria Bonita is liable to take a significant step forward from that debut effort, which didn’t get anywhere near to the bottom of her. She has been priced accordingly, but it would come as no surprise to see her maintain her 100 per cent record.

Aidan O’Brien’s Victorious is 2-2 having followed a debut success with a hard-fought victory over newcomer Controlla in a 6f Listed event at Naas. Unfortunately, the actual value of that performance won’t be known until the runner-up contests the Windsor Castle at the end of the card. However, of more concern is the step back to five furlongs, neither bred nor shaping as though wanting it.

Crystal Queen won a messy Hilary Needler and will probably need to improve again, while similar comments apply to the admittedly likeable Marygate 1-2, Love A Giggle and Armor Supreme. Lemos de Souza’s Kentucky Rain was picked up for £380,000 by Amo Racing at the annual hangers-on fete that is the Goffs London Sale. However, she was noted as putting in some very good late work, having met trouble when second on debut at Goodwood. This obviously presents a vastly different challenge entirely, but she is open to a good amount of improvement.

Of the American contingent, More Champagne makes most appeal. Thomas Morley’s filly made a winning start in a 5.5f event at Keeneland back in April, tracking the pace until moving up to lead a furlong out, showing a sharp turn of foot to put 6½ lengths between herself and next-time-out winner Shining Moment (re-opposes here). Unlike some of the pure speedballs that hail from Wesley Ward’s yard, More Champagne clearly isn’t so one dimensional, and a replication of the turn of foot she flashed on debut could see her very much involved at the business end here.

One other who appeals as bigger odds is the Harry Eustace-trained Shimmering Sun. She was well spoken of prior to making a winning start in a 5f fillies’ maiden at Salisbury last month, keeping on well to lead and then drawing clear of the more-experienced Call Me Tomorrow. That form is far removed from what it takes to win a Queen Mary, but Eustace isn’t one to have his newcomers fully wound up, and Shimmering Sun should take a good step forward here.

All in all, a fascinating contest, with a quartet of US raiders adding further spice into the mix. It could be that Thomas Morley’s MORE CHAMPAGNE is the answer off the back of her sparkling debut success at Keeneland back in April. She is the value called over Senorita Bonita, who is clearly a very talented filly to win as she did at Nottingham despite plenty going wrong. Alta Regina is another whose finishing effort impressed having worked her way through greenness. At bigger odds, Kentucky Rain and Shimmering Sun could improve enough to make the frame.

The market in the concluding Windsor Castle is dominated by Aidan O’Brien’s Sergei Diaghilev and the aforementioned Controlla.

The merits of Controlla’s second place finish in a Listed event on debut behind Victorious will be known after the opening Queen Mary, but even taken in isolation, it was a hugely creditable effort for an unraced one. She ran to a high mark and any sort of improvement should see her right there.

Sergei Diaghilev is a Wootton Bassett colt who was very strong in the market prior to his debut success in a 6f maiden at the Curragh, knowing what was required from the outset and impressing with the way he sealed matters from a pair of next-time-out winners (third won by 7½ lengths at Gowran Park last Friday). His chance is clear for all to see.

Joseph O’Brien’s One Number was one of a cluster of breeze up purchases made by the yard at the US breeze up sales this spring, and the Jack Christopher colt could hardly have made a bigger impression first time out. Not overly fancied for his debut in a 6f event at the Curragh a couple of weeks ago, he was waited with and then forced to pick his way through rivals to mount a challenge, finishing off strongly once in the clear to get to within 2 lengths of winner Celeron at the line.

There is little doubting that One Number is a useful prospect, the only one to make any sort of impact from off the pace, looking as though this stiff 6f would suit very well. So long as he goes the right way from that first experience (not always a given with breezers), it isn’t difficult to envisage a bold showing from One Number.

Michael O’Callaghan’s Celeron re-opposes and is himself from a breeze up background. However, he was very much clued-up on the day and also sat much closer to the pace, though it’d be folly to overlook his 2-length margin of success. That said, it would be mightily surprising if One Number couldn’t get a whole lot closer at the very least this time around.

Hugo Palmer’s Sale Shark looked a natural when making a winning start at Hamilton, forging clear inside the final furlong and looking ready for both this sixth furlong and higher grade. Moonrise from the Andrew Balding stable made short work of her rivals off the front end when successful on debut at Kempton, while George Margarson’s Troublesome Guest caught the eye behind a couple of Albany Stakes-bound fillies on debut at Newmarket. For a stable that has regularly punched above its weight, it would be fantastic to see a big run from their representative here, as it has been a rather lean time of things for the operation in recent seasons.

Alfred Wallace stepped forward from his debut fifth over this course and distance when showing a good attitude to fend off Chesham Stakes-bound Pikachu in a 7f maiden at Thirsk at the end of last month. He will need to improve again back in trip. Clive Cox’s Boleto is a well-related colt by Wootton Bassett who overcame wayward tendencies to score first time up at Pontefract, also needing every yard of the six-furlong trip that day. A well-run race at that trip here will very much play to his strengths, though a central draw means he can ill-afford to repeat his Pontefract antics.

Last but not least is Richard and Peter Fahey’s Charted Course. Although overhauled late by one who was beaten under a penalty at Ffos Las, he and another aided a pace collapse which facilitated that one’s successful late charge. A 450,000gns breeze up purchase from a useful Shadwell family, Charted Course is open to improvement and could get himself into the mix if ridden more efficiently on this occasion.

The top of the market makes a lot of sense. Controlla ran to a huge figure when almost winning a Group 3 on debut, and the full merits of that effort will become clearer after her conqueror contests the Queen Mary. Sergei Diaghliev looked a pro when seeing off a pair of next-time-out scorers. A couple that appeal at bigger prices are two who found one too good on debut, namely CHARTED COURSE and ONE NUMBER. They ran in contrasting style but shaped equally well, and they could improve enough here to have a big say in the outcome. Troublesome Guest at even bigger odds is another who appeals as one who will improve a fair chunk.

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