Rory Delargy reckons now's the time to back a Gordon Elliott-trained runner for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.
Antepost racing tips: National Hunt Chase
1pt win Favori De Champdou at 16/1 (bet365, Unibet)
Today’s motto is: “Never be afraid to forgive one poor run” as we have a shortlist of two for the National Hunt Chase, both of whom have drifted in the betting after last-time-out defeats at Graded level.
The first of them is Gordon Elliott’s FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU, who was favourite for the 3m6f event after posting an impressive win over Flooring Porter at Punchestown on his second start over fences, but a heavy defeat in the Nevill Hotels Novice Chase has seen him fall from grace – in the betting market at least.
On the whole, Gordon Elliott enjoyed a productive December, picking up wins in five Grade 1 races, but not all his big guns gave their running over the Christmas and New Year period, and Favori de Champdou was one of those.
I’m simply going to ignore his effort except to say that defeat makes it less likely that he will head to the Broadway (Brown Advisory) and more likely to head to the Grade 2 event at Cheltenham in March.
What’s of much more import is the value of his previous runs over fences, and both of those point to him being an ideal sort for the National Hunt Chase, a race Elliott has won four times already.
On debut at Galway he jumped better than eventual winner Affordale Fury until getting in too tight at the penultimate fence and he fought back to go down by a hard-fought length and a half to the Albert Bartlett runner-up. He followed that by beating Sandor Clegane and the wayward Flooring Porter in the Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novice Chase at Punchestown when again impressing with his economical jumping and the manner in which he forged clear late in the piece, looking like a longer trip would bring about an even better performance.
He had Affordale Fury and Quilixios well in arrears that day, and it’s that performance that saw him shoot to the head of the betting. It’s worth mentioning at this point that both the Galway race and the Florida Pearl were well run and produced decent times, which helps underscore the value of the form.
Favori de Champdou is engaged in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase over 2m5f at the Dublin Racing Festival and if he runs I’d not expect him to beat the likes of Gaelic Warrior and/or Grangeclare West at the trip, so the prospect of him making a switch to the Brown Advisory looks unlikely, but if he runs (and he could obviously swerve the race), I’d look to see a return to form and a confirmation of Gordon’s intention to for the National Hunt Chase, for which I would presume Rob James will be booked.
Of those on this side of the Irish Sea, Broadway Boy makes some appeal.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’s six-year-old was the apparent second string behind We’veallbeencaught when the latter made his seasonal reappearance at the Showcase meeting back in October (seems a long time ago, doesn’t it?) but Broadway Boy was well backed on the day and came out best of the pair in finishing second, giving 5lb away to both his stablemate and winner Flooring Porter in the process.
With the pair off level weights next time, you might have expected We’veallbeencaught to have got closer to Broadway Boy but Tom Bellamy made good use of his stamina by making all and attacking his fences, resulting in a 20 length win despite a tendency to stand too far off the ditches, banking one.
He took the move into open handicap company at the December meeting and again, under another positive ride from Sam Twiston-Davies, proved too good for the more experienced pair of Threeunderthrufive and Protektorat, who was bouncing back to form after a poor effort in the Betfair.
The National Hunt Chase looked the logical target for him at that stage, with stamina very much his long suit, but he suffered a setback in the Hampton Novices Chase at Warwick a couple of weeks ago when finishing well beaten behind both Grey Dawning and Apple Away.
He probably didn’t help himself by battling for the lead with Apple Away for much of the first mile and when she won that tussle and took a couple of lengths out of him, he was always on the back foot and and was allowed to come home in his own time after the last when third was assured.
All that did was show that he’s not up to the top grade, but you don’t need to be top grade to win a National Hunt Chase and for us, this would still be the right target. However, we know his local yard do love to have a tilt at the big prizes come March and we’d not rule out seeing him in the Brown Advisory or Ultima.
With that, it makes far more sense to wait and back him non-runner no-bet when all the firms have gone that way, as his price really oughtn’t differ that much from what it is now.
Published at 1608 GMT on 22/01/24
Punting Pointers Antepost Portfolio
Nov 20 - 1pt win The Big Breakaway in Coral Welsh Grand National at 14/1 (LOST)
Nov 27 - 1pt win Torn And Frayed in Virgin Bet December Gold Cup at 25/1 (LOST)
Dec 4 - 0.5pts e.w. Captain Guinness in Champion Chase at 20/1, 0.5pts e.w. Haddex Des Obeaux in Champion Chase at 50/1
Dec 18 - 1pt win Irish Point in the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham at 16/1 (General)
Jan 2 - 1pt e.w Corach Rambler in Cheltenham Gold Cup at 33/1 (General - 1/5 1,2,3)
Jan 8 - 1pt e.w. Banbridge in Ryanair Chase at 20/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3) – minimum 16/1
Jan 15 - 2pts win Gentleman de Mee in Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase at 3/1 (General)
Jan 22 - 1pt win Favori De Champdou at 16/1 (bet365, Unibet)
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing columnists
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
