Antepost tips: Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle preview and best for Cheltenham Festival
Rory Delargy and David Massey continue their series with a 16/1 fancy for the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.
Antepost racing tips: Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
1pt win Irish Point in the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham at 16/1 (General)
“We'll keep options open with him, but I would say he will step up in trip now, and it wouldn't shock me if we saw him over three miles at some stage. He stays really well.”
Those were the words of Gordon Elliott after IRISH POINT won the Grade 3 Bottlegreen Hurdle over 2m1f at Down Royal in November, and last season’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle winner has already shown himself better at two-and-a-half miles than shorter.
Beaten a head by subsequent Supreme winner Marine Nationale in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse, he arguably improved further when second to Champ Kiely at Naas, with a strong supporting cast including Dawn Rising, Grangeclare West and Affordale Fury were stretched out behind.
His only disappointment as a novice came when fourth at Leopardstown at Christmas when reverting to the minimum trip, and he missed Cheltenham to gain a confidence-boosting success at Naas. That was a workmanlike win, again kept to 2m, but he was really impressive in winning over half a mile further at Aintree, putting lengths between himself and Kateira from the last in a well-run race, with the much-vaunted Hermes Allen third in a strong field.
Irish Point looks like heading to the Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown where he is one of five entries for Gordon Elliott, the others being the other Robcour pair Absolute Notions and Teahupoo, plus Beacon Edge and Zanahiyr.
Of those, Absolute Notions and the regressive Beacon Edge are rated just 142 with the former likely to stay handicapping and the latter an embryonic chaser who may still go novice chasing this winter; Teahupoo is considered best fresh and may not run again until March, and Zanahiyr has a campaign at shorter mapped out, making Irish Point look the stable’s main chance in a race which only has seven other entries.
Home By The Lee is the obvious danger and won the Christmas Hurdle last year, that win coming on the back of success in the Lismullen Hurdle. He was only third in that race on his return behind Bob Olinger and Zanahiyr, however, and lacks tactical pace, so needs the ground testing to slow his rivals up.
Asterion Forlonge remains frustrating and needs to go right-handed, while Buddy One is flattered by his official rating having won a handicap at Cheltenham utilising Jack Gilligan’s 7lb allowance. He was well held in the Hatton’s Grace last time when Gilligan couldn’t claim and that will remain the case at Pattern level.
Sir Gerhard and Monkfish are former top-notchers who now have plenty to prove, the former needing a confidence boost but twice well beaten when trying three miles over fences and the latter still needing to prove that he retains his ability having failed to win in a truncated 2022/23 campaign on the back of a long injury-enforced absence.
Summerville Boy is a light of former days and Ballyadam is likely to stay over fences but wouldn’t make much appeal in any case.
To recap, then, the Christmas Hurdle looks something of a match between the established Home By The Lee and the improving Irish Point, and I’d very much fancy the latter to progress past his older rival. If he passes that test, then you can expect his odds to tumble for the Stayers’ Hurdle, and although connections also have Teahupoo for that contest, Irish Point has ample opportunity to strengthen his credentials in the meantime, with the Galmoy Hurdle - for example - another opportunity for him to shine in the weeks leading up to Cheltenham.
David’s thinking for the Stayers' Hurdle at the moment is more leftfield. After Dashel Drasher beat Paisley Park in this year’s renewal of the Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle, it would appear that, on this side of the Irish Sea at least, the old guard still seemingly hold sway and the Long Walk may well do nothing to dispel that theory come the weekend. So, is there anything outside of the usual suspects that might be able to get him or herself in the mix?
Maybe Ahoy Senor is the joker in the pack. He badly needed his first start of the year in the Charlie Hall, as was the case the previous season, and what David was looking for in the Coral Gold Cup was a close-up third or fourth, having travelled better but the mistakes that, at times, have held him back over fences still in evidence. A Big Bucks-style run, if you will.
That didn’t happen, with Ahoy Senor, after jumping off front rank, continually losing ground at his fences and not looking a happy horse before eventually being pulled up. Thoughts of winning anything, let alone the Stayers' at this point, have to be on hold but if he runs better next time, yet still finds mistakes holding him back, it surely wouldn’t be the biggest shock to see connections give the Stayers' Hurdle some consideration.
Backing him now makes no sense, but once we go non-runner no bet, then he’ll be worth a second look, as the chances of him lining up in the Stayers' are small, yet not impossible, and if he did line up there after showing more next time, he’d be among the favourites on the day.
Preview posted 1440 GMT on 18/12/2023
Punting Pointers Antepost Portfolio
Nov 20 - 1pt win The Big Breakaway in Coral Welsh Grand National at 14/1
Nov 27 - 1pt win Torn And Frayed in Virgin Bet December Gold Cup at 25/1 (LOST)
Dec 4 - 0.5pts e.w. Captain Guinness in Champion Chase at 20/1, 0.5pts e.w. Haddex Des Obeaux in Champion Chase at 50/1
Dec 18 - 1pt win Irish Point in the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham at 16/1 (General)
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